Donald Trump has fired another huge broadside at Starmer just now while speaking with Merz in the White House:
“By the way I’m not happy with the UK either. That island that you heard about – the lease – for whatever reason he made a lease of the island. Somebody came and took it away from him. It’s taken three or four days for us to work out where we could land. It would have been much more convenient landing there as opposed to flying many extra hours. So we are very surprised. This is not Winston Churchill that we’re dealing with.”
More updates on Keir the ‘Trump whisperer’ as we get them…
Gavin Barwell’s new Tory wet influence operation Prosper UK has within weeks of its launch resorted asking supporters for money. A mailshot went out yesterday:
“There is real appetite for serious, pro-growth politics focused on solutions, not noise. Our research shows 7 million centre and centre-right voters feel unrepresented in today’s political debate.
But you will know building a credible, organised voice for them requires sustained effort. We are expanding grassroots engagement, strengthening our policy work, and taking this conversation beyond Westminster. If you believe this work matters, consider a monthly contribution of £10. Long-term change requires long-term backing.”
It turns out not even credulous FT write-ups can generate hard cash to convert the Tories into the LibDems…
The reactions from Westminster’s think tanks are in. It’s a bad day to be a humble wonk hoping for some growth and stability. Deep breath…
The Adam Smith Institute’s Joanna Marchong: “The Chancellor has convinced herself of economic stability based on deeply outdated forecasts. It is a Statement written by spin doctors, not economists. After last year’s Autumn Budget, Reeves needed to show that those sacrifices were not in vain and deliver growth. OBR forecasts, even though they don’t reflect current shocks, appear to show her rules are just about intact, but growth is lacklustre and the UK is far from credible.”
The IEA’s Julian Jessop: “The Chancellor sent a signal of ‘steady as she goes’ today but what was really needed is a change of course. There is little sign that the government’s economic plan is working. In particular, the OBR’s forecasts for growth have been revised down and those for unemployment have been revised up. Inflation is at least projected to fall a little more quickly, but this forecast has already been overtaken by the surge in energy prices following the escalation of the crisis in the Middle East.”
The TaxPayers’ Alliance’s John O’Connell: “The idea that the chancellor has restored economic stability will sound like a sick joke to taxpayers suffering under this government… Everyone with a pair of eyes can see the services and infrastructure they pay for are crumbling before their eyes, and yet the chancellor has the cheek to tell them it’s all going marvellously. Enough’s enough – this country needs politicians who will put families and businesses first, and that means cutting spending and handing it back to taxpayers through big tax cuts.”
The Growth Commission’s Douglas McWilliams: “Before the Middle East crisis arose there was a reasonable chance that growth this year would match the OBR’s forecast. Clearly growth prospects are on hold while oil prices are shooting up, though we hope that the end of the crisis will bring a resumption. But our prediction is that, over the longer term, growth will stutter because of the Chancellor’s failure to adopt policies supportive of the economy. The cyclical recovery is likely to prove fragile unless it is supported, not hindered, by policy.”
The Centre for Social Justice’s Joe Shalam: “The Government wanted this spring forecast to be a non-event. But as the global outlook darkens, business as usual is patently not enough. Instead, ministers must now do everything they can to get Britain working and the economy fired up by ending the scandal of millions trapped on welfare. We already spend more on health benefits than the entire defence budget in what is a monumental waste of human potential. Repairing broken Britain is ultimately a matter of national security in a fast-changing world.”
The Centre for Policy Studies‘ Robert Colvile: “The Spring Forecast was, like Britain’s economic performance, an overwhelming disappointment. Indeed, a Chancellor can rarely have sounded so excited to announce a downgrade in growth. The Chancellor may well be right to limit policy changes to the autumn Budget – although the Government’s record on U-turns rather gives the lie to that ambition. But the result is that, instead of a proper fiscal statement, we were treated to a parade of empty and often misleading boasts, citing statistics no one else could read – with barely a reference to ongoing global events which may render much of the analysis completely meaningless.”
Onward’s Simon Clarke, keeping it brief via X: “Well that was utterly pointless and despair inducing. Moving on.”
Policy Exchange’s Iain Mansfield: “Nothing in the Spring Statement alters the fact that Britain’s economy is in no state to weather another crisis. With growth downgraded, debt at around 95% of GDP and almost a million young people not in work or education, a prolonged spike in energy costs could push Britain to the brink.
The Labour loyalist Institute for Public Policy Research’s Harry Quilter-Pinner, asking Reeves to build on her supposed economic “momentum“: “…Lower net migration poses a medium-term risk to public finances, while renewed conflict in the Middle East risks pushing up energy prices and adding to inflationary strain on households and businesses. The real test now is not short-term headroom but building on the economic momentum. The Spring Statement has bought the government time, it must now use it. That means focusing on broadening industrial strategy beyond energy into defence and advanced manufacturing, and doubling down on a ‘war on bills’ to tackle the cost-of-living crisis.” Good luck…
Even the Resolution Foundation’s chief Ruth Curtice is unmoved: “Disappointed not to see any immediate action on NEETs in particular. With almost one in six young people who want to work unable to find a job, they deserve clarity on minimum wage policy and an expanded Jobs Guarantee scheme now. [The] Chancellor appeared to promise action soon.”
The tax burden is set to reach a post-war high, and the welfare bill will soar to a stratospheric £406 billion by the end of the Parliament. Happy spring…
A rare glimpse inside the Resolution Foundation offices on Old Queen’s Street, posted by Sam Coates. Staff were watching the Spring Statement…
Eagle-eyed co-conspirators could spot the Soviet constructivism hanging in the middle of the office there. Enhance, enhance…
The poster reads: “PACE, QUALITY, DISCIPLINE.” Has anyone checked with Torsten Bell how his Five-Year Plan is going?
From the OBR’s forecast:
“Taxes are forecast to increase from 36% of GDP this year to 38% by the end of the forecast, with personal taxes accounting for half the increase. The projected 2030-31 level would be a historical high in the UK and almost 6% of GDP above the pre-pandemic level.”
Higher taxes will be distortionary and revenues may be lower than the Treasury thinks:
“A higher level of the tax take increases the risk that incentives within the tax system distort or constrain economic activity by more than expected. For example, capital taxes are paid by a narrow base of typically higher income taxpayers and are often very sensitive to the behavioural responses to policy changes.
The yield from the personal tax threshold freezes across the forecast is very sensitive to future inflation and nominal earnings growth. And there are also risks that the tax gap, which is a measure of the degree of tax compliance, does not fall by as much as forecast”
The OBR also says:
- Unemployment will rise to 5.33% in 2026 before falling.
- The welfare bill will increase from £314 billion last year to £406 billion by the end of the Parliament.
- Net migration will fall – thanks to people leaving the country.
And no support for North Sea oil…
Speaking on the phone to Jonathan Karl, Chief Washington Correspondent at ABC News, about Khamenei, Trump said:
“I got him before he got me. They tried twice. Well, I got him first.”
