A prominent tax expert has questioned HMRC’s decision to exonerate Angela Rayner over her tax affairs. Serious questions for the taxman…
Dan Neidle of Tax Policy Associates – who was until recently a member of the NCC, the Labour Party’s most senior disciplinary body – says HMRC’s decision that Rayner did not act in a “careless” way by failing to pay £40,000 extra of Stamp Duty is “hard to understand.”
Neidle has consulted with “other senior lawyers, including a retired judge.” He argues:
Neidle said: “HMRC’s contrary conclusion will be welcomed by Ms Rayner, but it raises a question of consistency: ordinary taxpayers who ignore explicit advice to consult a specialist routinely receive careless penalties.” This raises grave questions for the tax body…
Co-conspirators may remember that last time Rayner’s tax arrangements were in question over the sale of her house, the story was brought to a close by a single Guardian article saying Rayner had been cleared. With no additional context or information…
As Guido uncovered HMRC’s Stamp Duty investigations take 35 months on average. Rayner has been handed an exoneration in only eight months. Is the taxman giving the ex-DPM a light touch?
NHS stats out this morning are happy news for Wes Streeting:
70% of the last year’s progress towards this target was posted in last two months. Suspicious…
Streeting said: “Our plan for the NHS is working. This is the biggest cut in waiting lists in a single month in 17 years. It means we are right on track to deliver the fastest reduction in waiting times in the history of the NHS. Lots done, lots more to do.” Lots for him to do today…
Reform’s internal polling suggests 166 Labour MPs (167 if poor Karl Turner is let back in) would lose their seats at the next election, including seven Cabinet ministers. Guido has the data…
Yvette Cooper, Bridget Phillipson, Lisa Nandy, Jonathan Reynolds, Pat McFadden, and even Angela Rayner are all under threat from Reform. David Lammy would lose to Polanksi’s Greens. The Tories would take Rachel Reeves’ seat. A bloodbath…
The polling is based on the votes cast at last week’s local elections. See the full list below. This list obviously only applies to areas that had elections last Thursday. The other half would be presumably just as bad. Labour MPs who aren’t on this list shouldn’t get too comfortable…
| # | MP & Seat | To | PP |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Cabinet on the chopping block
|
|||
| 23 | CABINETLisa Nandy · Wigan | REF | -25.2 |
| 46 | CABINETJonathan Reynolds · Stalybridge and Hyde | REF | -21.2 |
| 53 | CABINETYvette Cooper · Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley | REF | -19.8 |
| 54 | CABINETBridget Phillipson · Houghton and Sunderland South | REF | -19.6 |
| 63 | CABINETPat McFadden · Wolverhampton South East | REF | -18.3 |
| 130 | CABINETDavid Lammy · Tottenham | GRN | -7.7 |
| 155 | CABINETRachel Reeves · Leeds West and Pudsey | CON | -4.2 |
|
Biggest swings against Labour
|
|||
| 1 | Josh Newbury · Cannock Chase | REF | -43.1 |
| 2 | Sarah Edwards · Tamworth | REF | -41.8 |
| 3 | Chris Vince · Harlow | CON | -40.6 |
| 4 | Sonia Kumar · Dudley | REF | -37.6 |
| 5 | Matt Turmaine · Watford | LD | -35.7 |
| 6 | Leigh Ingham · Stafford | CON | -33.9 |
| 7 | Oliver Ryan · Burnley | REF | -33.3 |
| 8 | Fred Thomas · Plymouth Moor View | REF | -32.5 |
| 9 | David Williams · Stoke-on-Trent North | REF | -32.4 |
| 10 | Rachel Taylor · North Warwickshire and Bedworth | REF | -31.8 |
| 11 | Melanie Onn · Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes | REF | -31.6 |
| 12 | MINStephen Morgan · Portsmouth South | LD | -29.8 |
| 13 | Richard Quigley · Isle of Wight West | REF | -29.7 |
| 14 | Andy MacNae · Rossendale and Darwen | REF | -28.5 |
| 15 | Jonathan Brash · Hartlepool | REF | -28.3 |
| 16 | Jonathan Hinder · Pendle and Clitheroe | REF | -28.1 |
| 17 | Mark Sewards · Leeds South West and Morley | REF | -27.5 |
| 18 | Jodie Gosling · Nuneaton | REF | -27.3 |
| 19 | Josh Simons · Makerfield | REF | -27.1 |
| 20 | Cat Eccles · Stourbridge | REF | -26.5 |
| 21 | Jess Phillips · Birmingham Yardley | LD | -26.1 |
| 22 | Amanda Martin · Portsmouth North | REF | -25.6 |
| 24 | Danny Beales · Uxbridge and South Ruislip | CON | -25.2 |
| 25 | Helena Dollimore · Hastings and Rye | GRN | -25.0 |
| 26 | Sam Carling · North West Cambridgeshire | REF | -24.8 |
| 27 | Jen Craft · Thurrock | REF | -24.8 |
| 28 | Connor Rand · Altrincham and Sale West | CON | -24.5 |
| 29 | Chris Bloore · Redditch | REF | -24.5 |
| 30 | Sarah Smith · Hyndburn | REF | -24.4 |
| 31 | Maya Ellis · Ribble Valley | LD | -24.3 |
| 32 | Laurence Turner · Birmingham Northfield | REF | -24.1 |
| 33 | Emma Lewell-Buck · South Shields | REF | -24.1 |
| 34 | Clive Lewis · Norwich South | GRN | -23.8 |
| 35 | Kim Leadbeater · Spen Valley | REF | -23.8 |
| 36 | Joe Powell · Kensington and Bayswater | CON | -23.8 |
| 37 | Jo Platt · Leigh and Atherton | REF | -23.4 |
| 38 | Clive Betts · Sheffield South East | REF | -23.3 |
| 39 | Bayo Alaba · Southend East and Rochford | REF | -23.3 |
| 40 | Abtisam Mohamed · Sheffield Central | GRN | -22.6 |
| 41 | MINEmma Hardy · Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice | REF | -22.2 |
| 42 | Sureena Brackenridge · Wolverhampton North East | REF | -22.2 |
| 43 | MINDiana Johnson · Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham | LD | -22.2 |
| 44 | Kirith Entwistle · Bolton North East | REF | -21.6 |
| 45 | Alex Ballinger · Halesowen | REF | -21.5 |
| 47 | Debbie Abrahams · Oldham East and Saddleworth | REF | -20.8 |
| 48 | Afzal Khan · Manchester Rusholme | GRN | -20.6 |
| 49 | Rachel Blake · Cities of London and Westminster | CON | -20.4 |
| 50 | Elsie Blundell · Heywood and Middleton North | REF | -20.4 |
| 51 | Lewis Atkinson · Sunderland Central | REF | -20.2 |
| 52 | Alice Macdonald · Norwich North | GRN | -20.2 |
| 55 | Jon Trickett · Normanton and Hemsworth | REF | -19.2 |
| 56 | Olivia Blake · Sheffield Hallam | LD | -19.2 |
| 57 | Adam Jogee · Newcastle-under-Lyme | REF | -19.1 |
| 58 | Marie Tidball · Penistone and Stocksbridge | REF | -19.1 |
| 59 | David Burton-Sampson · Southend West and Leigh | REF | -18.8 |
| 60 | Alex Sobel · Leeds Central and Headingley | GRN | -18.7 |
| 61 | Kate Osborne · Jarrow and Gateshead East | REF | -18.4 |
| 62 | Mike Amesbury · Runcorn and Helsby | REF | -18.3 |
| 64 | Jim McMahon · Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton | REF | -18.1 |
| 65 | John Slinger · Rugby | REF | -18.0 |
| 66 | Ben Coleman · Chelsea and Fulham | CON | -17.6 |
| 67 | Jade Botterill · Ossett and Denby Dale | REF | -17.4 |
| 68 | Ashley Dalton · West Lancashire | REF | -17.2 |
| 69 | Simon Lightwood · Wakefield and Rothwell | REF | -17.1 |
| 70 | Kevin Bonavia · Stevenage | REF | -16.7 |
| 71 | Antonia Bance · Tipton and Wednesbury | REF | -16.7 |
| 72 | Angela Rayner · Ashton-under-Lyne | REF | -16.6 |
| 73 | Michael Wheeler · Worsley and Eccles | REF | -16.4 |
| 74 | Al Carns · Birmingham Selly Oak | GRN | -16.2 |
| 75 | Louise Haigh · Sheffield Heeley | GRN | -16.1 |
| 76 | Sean Woodcock · Banbury | REF | -16.1 |
| 77 | Valerie Vaz · Walsall and Bloxwich | REF | -15.6 |
| 78 | Paul Davies · Colne Valley | REF | -15.6 |
| 79 | Stephanie Peacock · Barnsley South | REF | -15.4 |
| 80 | Daniel Francis · Bexleyheath and Crayford | REF | -15.3 |
| 81 | Yuan Yang · Earley and Woodley | CON | -15.3 |
| 82 | Diane Abbott · Hackney North and Stoke Newington | GRN | -14.9 |
| 83 | Sharon Hodgson · Washington and Gateshead South | REF | -14.5 |
| 84 | Yasmin Qureshi · Bolton South and Walkden | REF | -14.5 |
| 85 | Andrew Lewin · Welwyn Hatfield | REF | -14.3 |
| 86 | David Pinto-Duschinsky · Hendon | CON | -14.2 |
| 87 | Pam Cox · Colchester | REF | -14.1 |
| 88 | Mark Ferguson · Gateshead Central and Whickham | REF | -14.1 |
| 89 | Kate Dearden · Halifax | REF | -14.0 |
| 90 | Darren Paffey · Southampton Itchen | REF | -13.8 |
| 91 | Steve Race · Exeter | GRN | -13.5 |
| 92 | Feryal Clark · Enfield North | CON | -13.5 |
| 93 | Luke Murphy · Basingstoke | REF | -13.3 |
| 94 | Harpreet Uppal · Huddersfield | REF | -13.3 |
| 95 | Alex Baker · Aldershot | REF | -13.3 |
| 96 | Josh Fenton-Glynn · Calder Valley | REF | -13.3 |
| 97 | Peter Lamb · Crawley | REF | -13.2 |
| 98 | Phil Brickell · Bolton West | REF | -13.1 |
| 99 | Vicky Foxcroft · Lewisham North | GRN | -13.0 |
| 100 | David Baines · St Helens North | REF | -12.9 |
| 101 | Marie Rimmer · St Helens South and Whiston | REF | -12.5 |
| 102 | Gill Furniss · Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough | REF | -12.3 |
| 103 | Mary Glindon · Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend | REF | -12.3 |
| 104 | Paul Foster · South Ribble | REF | -12.1 |
| 105 | Paulette Hamilton · Birmingham Erdington | REF | -12.0 |
| 106 | Emma Foody · Cramlington and Killingworth | REF | -11.8 |
| 107 | Judith Cummins · Bradford South | REF | -11.8 |
| 108 | Andrew Pakes · Peterborough | CON | -11.8 |
| 109 | Patrick Hurley · Southport | REF | -11.6 |
| 110 | Uma Kumaran · Stratford and Bow | GRN | -11.3 |
| 111 | Hamish Falconer · Lincoln | REF | -11.2 |
| 112 | Joe Morris · Hexham | REF | -11.0 |
| 113 | Sarah Sackman · Finchley and Golders Green | CON | -10.6 |
| 114 | Taiwo Owatemi · Coventry North West | REF | -10.4 |
| 115 | Chi Onwurah · Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West | REF | -10.1 |
| 116 | Andrew Gwynne · Gorton and Denton | GRN | -9.9 |
| 117 | Liam Byrne · Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North | REF | -9.9 |
| 118 | Rebecca Long-Bailey · Salford | REF | -9.9 |
| 119 | Margaret Mullane · Dagenham and Rainham | REF | -9.6 |
| 120 | Anna Dixon · Shipley | GRN | -9.3 |
| 121 | Beccy Cooper · Worthing West | REF | -9.2 |
| 122 | MINEllie Reeves · Lewisham West and East Dulwich | GRN | -9.2 |
| 123 | Matt Rodda · Reading Central | GRN | -9.1 |
| 124 | Derek Twigg · Widnes and Halewood | REF | -9.0 |
| 125 | Dan Jarvis · Barnsley North | REF | -9.0 |
| 126 | Dan Tomlinson · Chipping Barnet | CON | -8.9 |
| 127 | Catherine McKinnell · Newcastle upon Tyne North | LD | -8.4 |
| 128 | Tahir Ali · Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley | GRN | -8.1 |
| 129 | Natasha Irons · Croydon East | CON | -7.8 |
| 131 | Christian Wakeford · Bury South | REF | -7.7 |
| 132 | Meg Hillier · Hackney South and Shoreditch | GRN | -7.6 |
| 133 | Richard Burgon · Leeds East | REF | -7.5 |
| 134 | Paul Waugh · Rochdale | REF | -7.5 |
| 135 | Daniel Zeichner · Cambridge | GRN | -7.3 |
| 136 | Kate Osamor · Edmonton and Winchmore Hill | CON | -7.1 |
| 137 | Callum Anderson · Buckingham and Bletchley | REF | -6.8 |
| 138 | Tom Rutland · East Worthing and Shoreham | REF | -6.8 |
| 139 | Neil Coyle · Bermondsey and Old Southwark | LD | -6.5 |
| 140 | Rupa Huq · Ealing Central and Acton | LD | -6.4 |
| 141 | Fleur Anderson · Putney | CON | -6.2 |
| 142 | Calvin Bailey · Leyton and Wanstead | GRN | -6.2 |
| 143 | James Frith · Bury North | REF | -6.0 |
| 144 | Jack Abbott · Ipswich | REF | -5.8 |
| 145 | Apsana Begum · Poplar and Limehouse | REF | -5.0 |
| 146 | Emily Darlington · Milton Keynes Central | REF | -5.0 |
| 147 | Barry Gardiner · Brent West | CON | -4.8 |
| 148 | Liz Twist · Blaydon and Consett | REF | -4.8 |
| 149 | Marsha De Cordova · Battersea | CON | -4.4 |
| 150 | Mark Hendrick · Preston | REF | -4.3 |
| 151 | Anneliese Midgley · Knowsley | REF | -4.3 |
| 152 | Luke Pollard · Plymouth Sutton and Devonport | REF | -4.3 |
| 153 | Chris Curtis · Milton Keynes North | REF | -4.3 |
| 154 | Navendu Mishra · Stockport | REF | -4.3 |
| 156 | Lucy Powell · Manchester Central | GRN | -4.2 |
| 157 | Satvir Kaur · Southampton Test | REF | -4.0 |
| 158 | Jeff Smith · Manchester Withington | GRN | -3.6 |
| 159 | Hilary Benn · Leeds South | GRN | -3.5 |
| 160 | Will Stone · Swindon North | CON | -3.5 |
| 161 | Heidi Alexander · Swindon South | CON | -3.4 |
| 162 | Warinder Juss · Wolverhampton West | REF | -3.3 |
| 163 | Tulip Siddiq · Hampstead and Highgate | LD | -3.0 |
| 164 | Mary Creagh · Coventry East | REF | -2.8 |
| 165 | Bambos Charalambous · Southgate and Wood Green | CON | -2.4 |
| 166 | Clive Efford · Eltham and Chislehurst | REF | -2.1 |
Housing Secretary and chief Starmer loyalist Steve Reed has issued a blistering counter-attack on Jess Phillips, who resigned as safeguarding minister on Tuesday. Couldn’t happen to a nicer person…
Phillips blamed Starmer in her letter for not getting new regulations through to protect children, specifically mentioning one idea of hers which involved monitoring every image that passes onto a phone in the UK. Reed told Peston last night that it’s up to the minister to get things done:
“Well, it takes a minister to get in there and drive their agenda through… I think it was Liz Kendall, my colleague, who was the relevant minister… she got into Number Ten and she got the whole operation not just in the UK but with Europe with Canada with Australia with New Zealand and they faced down big tech and they protected children. You have to get in there and speak to colleagues. If you sit back and wait, it won’t happen.”
Reed went on to quote Phillips’ letter to defend Starmer’s record:
“I saw Jess talking about deeds, not words, you know, the social housing bill that is going to bring in new rights to protect victims of domestic abuse living in council housing from being unfairly evicted if they’re targeted by their partner. That’s been going on. That’s deeds, not words. That’s exactly what she called for.”
Recollections probably vary as to whether Phillips put herself ‘in the room’ or not…
New figures from the Office for National Statistics show that UK GDP in the first quarter grew by 0.6%. In line with expectations following growth in Q4 2024 of 0.2%…
The largest growth came from services on 0.8%. The ONS says: “Real GDP per head is estimated to have increased by 0.6% in Quarter 1 2026 and is up 0.9% compared with the same quarter a year ago.” Reeves, who has been keeping quiet during the Rickety Coup, has said the figures show a leadership contest would be dangerous:
“Today’s figures show the Government has the right economic plan. The choices I have made as Chancellor mean our economy is in a stronger position as we deal with the costs of the war in Iran.
Now is not the time to put our economic stability at risk. To do so would leave families and business worse off. Instead, this Government is getting on with the job of building an economy that is stronger, more resilient, and prepared for the future.”
Won’t stop the tide against Starmer but it may convince a leadership rival to keep her in the job…
Angela Rayner has entered the leadership conflict this morning. With a bang…
Rayner has spoken to ITV to say she has no deal with Andy Burnham and that she would not trigger a leadership contest:
“I’ve made it clear that I wasn’t going to trigger the prime minister – and that I want to see change.”
She has also given an interview to the Guardian in which she says she has been cleared by HMRC and will not pay a fine. She also said Starmer should consider stepping aside and that she wants to “play my part“: “Keir will have to reflect on that.” Rayner will run to stop Streeting…
Paula Barker, Liverpool Wavertree MP backing Andy Burnham, told Times Radio there wouldn’t be trouble from the markets under Burnham:
“The markets will have to fall in line.”