As voters head to the polls today, here is how Starmer’s six “First Steps for Change” – the Blair-style pledge cards launched in May 2024 – are holding up after almost two years in office:
Deliver economic stability: The OBR has downgraded 2026 GDP growth to 1.1%, with the IMF and OECD cutting their UK forecasts by 0.5 percentage points – the largest 2026 downgrade for any advanced economy. Inflation is 3.1%, well above target and higher than when Starmer entered Number 10. UK gilt yields rose more than any G7 country bar Italy in March, costing the typical first-time buyer an extra £100 a month on their mortgage. Reeves has all but given up on mentioning the word ‘growth’…
Cut NHS waiting times: 7.25 million are still waiting. The interim target of 65% treated within 18 weeks by March was missed at 61.5%. Trusts are now trimming the list by removing patients who fail to reply to text messages. 54,649 patients waited more than 12 hours on trolleys this winter, up 15% on the year. Streeting has at least hit his weekend appointments target. He has not hit much else. And has his eyes on a bigger job now anyway…
Launch a Border Security Command: 41,500 small boat arrivals in 2025, up 13%. Cumulative crossings since 2018 passed 199,920 last week. Crossings up 45% since the general election. Almost 65,000 crossed in Starmer’s first 18 months, just short of Boris Johnson’s 39-month total. The gangs remain un-smashed…
Set up Great British Energy: Bills are higher in cash terms than when Labour took office. Miliband warns voters they will not see all of April’s supposed £150 reduction because of “investment in the network”. The £300 cut by 2030, which was always a fantasy, is obviously unreachable…
Crack down on antisocial behaviour: 3,000 officers redeployed into neighbourhood roles by January, hitting the first-year target. The total number of police officers is down 0.6%. Forces are moving warm bodies between desks rather than adding them. Respect Orders are still working their way through Parliament. Does it feel like antisocial behaviour is in decline?
Recruit 6,500 new teachers: The pledge has been quietly redefined to exclude primary schools, add FE colleges and count retention rather than new recruits. Secondary recruitment remains 11% below target…
Admittedly these ‘first steps’ constituted Starmer’s 16th reset. He is now on 30. Can anyone in Number 10 name even one of these promises anymore?
The FT reports that former Tory Justice Secretary David Gauke has been proposed for a knighthood in the King’s annual birthday honours list:
“Conservatives proposed for knighthoods include David Gauke and Greg Hands. Gauke, a former justice secretary who chaired the Labour government’s independent review of sentencing, declined to comment.”
For the avoidance of doubt Tory sources insist this is not Badenoch’s doing. One of them says: “Kemi absolutely livid Labour nominated Gauke. She wouldn’t have him anywhere near any list. Starmer even snuck it through a random honours committee to stop Kemi vetoing it. He stood against the Conservatives, now he’s doing Labour’s bidding on sentencing and bagged himself a knighthood. Total Starmer stitch up.” What does this say about Prosper, the Gavin Barwell centrist movement to take over the Tory Party of which Gauke is vice–chairman…
The FT also reports that sacked minister Jim McMahon has been put up for a knighthood. Conciliation…
Some YouGov polling following the events of last week:
Green voters agree with the public: “While the Greens are the party most embroiled with accusations of anti-semitism at the moment, 2024 Green voters are about as likely as their Conservative, Labour and Lib Dem counterparts to see anti-semitism as a substantial problem (68%) – it is Reform UK voters who are the least likely to say so (although at 63% they are about as likely as the wider public to do so).” Something for Zack to keep in mind the next time his hand hovers over the retweet button…
Polls have opened. Labour is bracing for a car-crash set of results, with this morning’s papers stuffed with leadership manoeuvring, union rebellion, and Number 10 plotting new ways to keep Burnham out of Parliament. Absurd Ofcom rules will prevent the broadcasters from covering any of this properly for the entire day…
The final YouGov MRP puts Labour third in Wales, third in Scotland and on 17.9% nationally, behind Reform on 25.3% and barely ahead of the Tories. Fuelling talk of how to shove Starmer out the door…
The Times reports a Wes Streeting “shadow team” is lining up MPs, working up policy with think tanks and bagging a former Starmer SpAd to coordinate the campaign. The Guardian says Sadiq Khan is weighing up whether to join calls for change. Although that might jeopardise his peerage…
Leaders of all 11 Labour-affiliated unions hold a private call at 5pm on Friday to chew over the results. One general secretary tells the Telegraph Starmer “needs to go“. Starmer plans to fight on with a “policy blitz” – finally dumping the manifesto – and a speech next week pitching closer EU ties as the cure for the cost of living and the way to save his premiership. As Guido reported yesterday, that would be his 30th reset. Labour activists have been warned not to cry on camera when the results come in…
The fourth and final part of Guido’s horror series. Sorry Al Carns…
Ed Miliband is more or less pulling the strings nowadays anyway. But should Starmer fall, here’s what Miliband unleashed might look like…
Whether he’s in Number 10 or Number 11, this is what’s on the menu…
With less than 24 hours to go before polls open, the Labour campaigns in Scotland and Wales are going about as well as expected for a party expecting historic losses. In the space of about two hours, Scottish Labour Deputy Leader Jackie Baillie started crying at a rally in Glasgow, and Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan refused to back Starmer in an interview with the BBC. Morgan faces losing her own seat tomorrow…
Anas Sarwar was the first to call for Starmer to quit back in February. Yesterday he said he “stood by” the decision. Have they not heard Starmer is planning his 30th reset? Give the man a chance…
Hat-tip: Christian Calgie
Speaking to Adam Boulton on Times Radio about kicking the Golders Green suspect, Heidi Alexander said:
“I thought that if I was in the shoes of that police officer, then if I’m honest, given the situation, and the fact that he had a backpack on his back, and they were worried about whether that might go off, I could, if I was a police officer, frankly, I could see myself having taken similar action.”