Guido keeps a keen eye on the polls. Over the last 10 published Westminster voting intention polls, YouGov’s average for Reform UK has been 24.8%. Across the same period, the average from Opinium is 30.9%. What accounts for the consistently lower Reform numbers with YouGov, is the party really doing worse?
Well, let’s compare it to the other pollsters. Guido’s quants note that with More in Common the average for Reform UK is 29.5%, and Find Out Now is 29.3%. That is said to be broadly in line with Reform’s internal numbers, so the YouGov figure really does seem lower than its main competitors…
Eagle-eyed politicos point out that YouGov consistently produces more statistical outliers for Reform than other pollsters. If you crunch those together, it’s an average differential of -5…
An interesting post by Peter Kellner digs into this – as he puts it: “YouGov is the odd one out.” He quotes Anthony Wells who has probed YouGov’s methodology and finds: “YouGov’s computer… applies a model developed from their large scale MRP surveys to assess each respondent: how likely are they actually vote and, given their past loyalties and the nature of their constituency, which party are the most likely to vote for?” Could this (unpublished) computer formula be skewing the Reform results?
One senior pollster told Guido: “The methodology that YouGov seem to be applying here is quite opaque. It has certainly raised a few eyebrows in the industry.” Shaking up the quants…
Every month, we’ll publish the power rankings of all the leading lights in the party based on our readers’ responses. Who’s up, who’s down…
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The OBR has said inflation could be 1% higher by the end of the year thanks to a long spike in energy prices. Just Reeves’s luck…
David Miles, member of the OBR’s budget responsibility committee, told MPs in the Commons:
“If there’s no change in the picture on prices from now on forward, we estimate something like a 1% higher level of consumer prices in the UK by the end of the year
We had thought, without taking all this into account, that the inflation rate in the UK might be pretty close to 2%.
Right now, if prices don’t change from where they are – both the spot and market expectations for futures prices, which is particularly important for the Ofgem price cap – by the end of this year we think the inflation rate would end the year not near 2% but nearer 3%.”
Labour has been unable to push inflation sustainably below target so far in government…
Approved unanimously by Your Party’s Central Executive Committee:
“Ordinary Iranians now being bombed are already suffering from economic sanctions, which should be lifted to provide relief.”
Magic grandpa still hasn’t lost his touch…
Speaking at the usual Downing Street briefing room, Darren Jones is debuting Digital ID. Hope that goes well…
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood introduced her speech on migration reforms at the IPPR:
“There’s no denying we meet at a difficult time for my party.”