Guido was first to point out the questions over YouGov’s polling methodology when it comes to Reform’s position in their voter intention tables. Since then, the issue has caught fire in the media and in polling world…
YouGov published the first stage of its method in response. From that, Guido’s polling analysts can see who loses and wins from their system that is unlike any other pollster…
Taking last week’s poll as an example (see the table), the bottom line is that the methodology cost Reform -2.4 and Greens -2.1, but Lib Dems went up +2.7 and Con +2.1 on the original raw data. Polling industry sources question this and characterise the process as a heavy intervention…
It’s what pollsters call a model overlay – you don’t just rely on the actual answers and how the poll balances constituencies, but on a layer of analysis which is imposed on that model on top. YouGov looks bang to rights here, it won’t be the last Reform battle with the pollsters…
New polling from More in Common shows Reform has opened a whopping 7-point lead in Wales ahead of May’s Senedd elections:
- Reform 31%
- Plaid Cymru 24%
- Labour 20%
- Conservatives 13%
- LibDems 6%
- Greens 5%
In this scenario Plaid and Labour wouldn’t even win enough sits to form a two-party government. Plaid would have to cobble together a rainbow coalition horror-show. Labour’s support, meanwhile, has halved in Wales since 2024…
Nearly half of all Labour voters want Starmer to leave Downing Street before the next general election, according to new YouGov polling in the Times. Just wait until they see next week’s Winter Budget…
The survey, conducted last week, found that 23 percent of Labour voters want Starmer to resign immediately, with another 22 percent saying he should throw in the towel before the next election. Only 34% think he should even bother leading Labour into that election, whenever it is…
BMG Research has the first Tory poll lead since December 2021, beating Labour by one point as Sunak finally ceases to be leader. Tells you all you need to know…
It’s more bad news for the Tories, as even GB News viewers now back Labour over the Conservatives. A new JL Partners survey found Labour extended its lead over the Tories from 11 points to 21 points, with Labour on 46%, the Tories on 25%, and Reform UK on 18% of the vote. Looks like the Tories’ culture war isn’t hitting home they way they’d hoped. If Farage stands, the Reform vote will likely eat into the Tories’ vote share even more…
The new Ipsos poll will do little for the few hopeful Tories left, as the party hits an all-time low of 19% – the lowest in 45 years. The Tories won’t seek comfort in Rishi’s personal ratings either, as he drops to a record low -59 points. The same level as Jezza Corbyn…
Meanwhile, Labour stayed relatively stable at 44% and Reform hit 13%, their highest score yet in an Ipsos poll. A whopping 37% of people think the Tories should change leader before the election, compared to 33% who don’t. Still, at least the ‘grown ups’ are back in charge…
In Henry Mance’s piece today for the FT, lunching with Nigel Farage:
“Splendido!” Farage says, when the drinks arrive; I suppose it’s a step to European reconciliation. We clink glasses, and he lights the first of two back-to-back Benson & Hedges. A few minutes later, we’re back downstairs. “Are you drinking? Good.” He orders a glass of Sauvignon blanc for each of us — not a bottle, “because it’s Lent” — followed by a bottle of claret, to have with our meal. They say Farage drinks less than he used to. They say a lot of things.”
