"We Are All In Relative Poverty" According to Osborne

Guido popped down this morning to the Demos Ikea showroom / think tank to hear what the 18th (to be) Baronet of Ballintaylor in the County of Tipperary and heir to a fortune had to say on "fairness". George Osborne's pamphlet is here and the speech echoed the charges that inequality has increased under New Labour. Strangely Guido thinks that New Labour is too afraid to defend itself on this issue.

Relative poverty has increased only because we have generally got richer. Absolute poverty has not increased. The problem for those who put equality before liberty is that they are too embarrassed to say that whilst we have all in aggregate got richer, some have got even richer, even faster. So What? Essentially if you believe in the conceptual value of the idea of "relative poverty" you believe that if Warren Buffet moved to London poverty would increase. Britons would after all now be relatively poorer compared to the average. If George when he becomes Chancellor succeeds in driving rich, non-domiciles away from British shores he will be able to claim he has reduced relative poverty. Not one single poor person's absolute circumstances will have changed (apart perhaps from a few more unemployed domestic staff ). Splendid, Polly Toynbee will be pleased.

There was a moment of comedy when an extremely bedraggled looking Derek Draper piped up with a question from the back. Osborne congratulated him "on his new role as psychological consultant to the PM. Good luck with that." Osborne was also quizzed about the ideological incoherency of all this cross-party triangulation on poverty and social justice. He said something wonkish about there being a continuum of political thinking from himself through Alan Milburn to Brown with the same long term goal.

Osborne took the opportunity to praise Alan Milburn. Mischievously saying, to much laughter, that he also shared with Milburn "his short term goals"...

Herr Doktor Hartwich Says "Auf Wiedersehen"

Oliver Marc Hartwich is moving to Australia after humbly suggesting people move South (though not that far South) in his parting Cities Unlimited pamphlet for Policy Exchange.

Labour and John Prescott in particular enjoyed painting it as Cameron's favourite think tank "slagging off the North". Iain Dale pointed out that Oliver's collaborator on the report, Dr Tim Leunig, is a LibDem insider and adviser. Oliver himself once worked for the LibDem's Lord Oakeshott, however he is actually a libertarian. He mistakenly thought the LibDems would be like the German FDP - who are a right of centre liberal party - though that seems to be the direction Clegg has in mind.

Oliver writes for Die Achse des Guten ("The Axis of the Good") the leading libertarian leaning political commentary blog in Germany. If people thought his griping about London and antipathy to the North was irritating, wait till they find out what his new book is about. The title is "England – Nachruf auf ein großartiges Land", translated: "England – an obituary for a great country"...

+++ Wilf Stevenson Resigns From Smith Institute ++++++ Lord Haskel Resigns Chairmanship of Trustees +++

Guido has learnt that following the condemnation by the Charity Commission of the trustees of the Smith Institute, Lord Haskel has resigned as chairman of the trustees, Wilf Stevenson has also resigned as director after the unprecedented criticism of the charity for partisanship.

Paul Hackett, a wonk who has written some pamphlets for the Sith, is the "acting director". The offices are closed and Guido has confirmed that the Smith Institute will no longer be based at the New Statesman's offices. The rumour in wonk-land has it that the IPPR has taken pity on them and will be giving them space at their offices.

Mission accomplished, Sith in disarray. Guido won.

Don't forget we also have the prospect of an Electoral Commission investigation into illegal undeclared "donations in kind" by the Smith Institute to Gordon Brown.

Policy Exchange Hires Katy

Katy Taylor-Richards is leaving the Daily Express bunker to take over media relations for Policy Exchange under James Bethell. Both will be joining the growing think tank at the end of the month.

No news as yet as to who will be taking over from ex-boss Anthony Browne now he is off to do policy for Team Boris...

Right's Think Tanks Enjoying Revival

Propeller-Head Wonk Watch: James Purnell's "workfare" proposals are being warmly welcomed by Chris Grayling his Tory welfare shadow. “Much of today’s package is a straight lift from our Green Paper in January... Because these are Conservative proposals we will support them. We will help him get them through this House."

The Government's Green Paper may be lifted from the Tory Green Paper from January which itself bears a remarkable similarity to the Adam Smith Institute report from November 2007 - "Working Welfare". The ideas in that were were first expounded by the former MP for North Norfolk, Sir Ralph Howell. A resolute free-marketeer, Howell was the author of the ASI report "Why Work?" in the mid-1990s. The ASI's Madsen Pirie says "this idea has taken longer than we would have wanted to become government policy". The ideas were theoretical at that time in the 1990s before they were implemented in Wisconsin.

Michael Gove's advocacy of the Swedish model of "free schools" may owe a little to another recent ASI report - Open Access for UK Schools: What Britain can learn from Swedish Education Reform. Over at the new look Centre for Policy Studies things are getting more lively after a quiet period, Policy Exchange is becoming something of a powerhouse (incidentally, it was cleared by the Charity Commission of tit-for-tat allegations of partisanship).

Alas only the venerable Institute of Economic Affairs has yet to join the renaissance of right-of-centre think tanks in Westminster's wonkland...

+++ Policy Exchange Boss Joins Team Boris +++

So what is arguably currently the top job in wonkland is now up for grabs...

Via CoffeeHouse

Radically Opaque

Propeller-Head Wonk Watch: The troubled Demos think tank is officially saying "no comment" this morning but there are reports that the new director of Demos, Catherine Fieschi, has already abandoned ship. It seems to be something of habit for Demos to lose leaders. She was installed following the failed and brief captaincy of Madelaine Bunting which produced a mutiny of the wonks.

Sunny over at Pickled Politics thinks it is something to do with Demos co-sponsoring an event held by the British Muslim Initiative - which some claim is Hamas allied - Guido has no idea if that is true and is a bit sceptical of Islamophobia mullahs-under-the-bed stuff. The Demos "no comment" is a bit of a laugh when you know that they advocate "radical transparency" and a new way of "doing politics... short-circuiting the damaging relationship between politicians and journalists".

They ask citizen bloggers to get in touch because "We're thinking about how citizen journalism and new media are having, and might have, an impact on political communication, and on traditional journalism." Well, Guido got in touch and they said "no comment".

UPDATE : It is official. She resigned on Monday and an article has just popped up on the New Statesman's website where she says

"no matter who's in an organisation, organisations seldom love you back as much as you love them. They are strangely, in this respect, less than the sum of their parts. And so it's time to move on.... I wish Demos nothing but the absolute best, but a sense of après moi, le déluge has a certain appeal when you've been slugging your guts out for a couple of years. Does harbouring a secret longing for an inept successor, possibly unpleasant, maybe even scarily unattractive, make me a terrible person?"

Unloved, belittling, negative wishes - something tells Guido the Christmas card list will be shorter this year...

New Labour Guilty as Charged

Propeller-Head Wonk Watch: Maurice Saatchi's "Enemy of the People" published today by the re-energised Centre for Policy Studies (IEA trustees take note) is brilliant. Written in the form of an indictment it succinctly lists the chief charges of which New Labour is guilty as their era closes.

The core of the criminal conspiracy was “The Four-Stage Plan”:

... the defendants concocted and put into execution a four-stage plan to secure power over the people:

Step 1 The victims pay more tax
Step 2 They receive “benefits” to pay the tax
Step 3 They are grateful for the “benefits”
Step 4 They vote for the defendants

This is the central charge against the left universally, whether social democrat or socialist, humanist or Stalinist, they always end up taxing to give back benefits to the people they took the money from in the first place. An astonishing 22,400,000 people in this country claim benefits, 39% of households, the number has doubled under New Labour. If we lifted the threshold at which taxes were paid to say £12,000 (as advocated by Adam Smith Institute) millions would be able to get off the tax-bureaucracy-benefit merry-go-round. Gordon has built a client class of state bureacrats and those dependent on the state. The only reason Gordon deliberately pays child benefit to millionaires is because he thinks it will shore up support for the welfare state.

It is a shame that Saatchi is out of favour with the Cameroons, mainly because he sings from the old Thatcherite hymn sheet. Well, he did after all write some of the best hit tunes...

Young Blood Needed at the Daddy of Think Tanks

Propeller-Head Wonk Watch: The venerable Institute of Economic Affairs is the grand-daddy of think tanks. Founded in 1955 it fought long and hard for the cause of economic liberalism, laying the intellectual foundations for the defeat of socialism, inflation and the framework for monetarism. They had policy success from the late seventies for two decades.

The IEA's example spawned think tanks around the world and spread the Thatcher-Reagan Revolution worldwide. In the New Labour era it has been eclipsed, first by the IPPR, then as the Tories march to power by Policy Exchange.

It spends a million pounds a year, more than even Policy Exchange, yet makes little impact. The IEA's publishing seems focused on reprints from the glory days. The director, John Blundell, is low profile, and never seen on broadcast media. He has successfully raised £1.4 million for the Ralph Harris Fellowship, mainly from the late Dorian Fisher (the founder's widow). He himself is the fellow and it consolidates his own position - some 20% of the IEA's income pays for the compensation of John and Christine Blundell.

The low profile and high cost of Blundell is beginning to concern the trustees. The complete lack of influence on the Conservative Party agenda on the eve of government is a big disappointment. One IEA insider lamented to Guido that the fledgling IEA off-shoot in Ghana got more media coverage than the half-century old former intellectual power house.

Blundell has long wanted to take up a think tank position in the U.S. In comparison to Cato and Heritage in Washington the IEA has contracted as they have grown in the last decade. Some trustees think that his fellowship could be a cheap price to move him sideways across the Atlantic, taking a step back from the day-to-day operations, letting him concentrate on fund raising from U.S. foundations with a new grand title. A fresh director could take his place and re-energise the IEA.

The IEA Founder's party tonight will be a scene of much gossip and gentle jostling for succession. Possible successors to Blundell in the running are said to include; Tim Evans from the Stockholm Network, Matthew Elliott from the Taxpayers Alliance, City A.M's editor Allister Heath, the IEA's own Roger Bates and Julian Morris from the International Policy Network. If they want to influence the agenda of the next government, there needs to be a change at the top soon...

Demos Abandons Party Conferences

Propeller-Head Wonk Watch: Word reaches Guido that the "Third Way" think-tank Demos is not going to the party conferences.

They claim that the returns do not justify the costs. There have been consistent rumours that Demos has funding difficulties - which they deny. Frankly given how much taxpayer's money is diverted to Demos, Guido doubts they are on the verge of bankruptcy. Guido has heard that as much as a third of their income is from taxpayers rather than voluntary donations .

Demos has a problem in that it seems to be on an intellectual ramble with no clear direction. Which does not mean it doesn't come up with occasionally interesting ideas, just that it no longer has a cutting ideological edge. Financial backers can't be sure what they are getting for their money. So they understandably don't give.

Brown at Close Quarters

Fascinating and sympathetic Guardian piece by Tom Clark about what it was like to deal with Brown and the Brownies at close quarters for four years. It confirms a lot of what we have already surmised about the core method of policy development through dithering.

Tom Clark was a SpAd at the DWP and the old DTI hired from the Institute for Fiscal Studies. He clearly admires Brown whilst recognising his faults. Faults that make him unsuitable to be PM. Well worth a read.

What is "Progressive Governance"?

The closing press conference offered few clues. All the heads of government were keen to chip in when it came to global warming and the credit crunch - big picture problems about which they can do little. But asked to speak out on China and Tibet, or Zimbabwe, they looked distinctly shifty, and kept their mouths shut. "We didn't discuss Zimbabwe," Mbeki said.

Whatever Progressive Governance is, it's not about freedom and democracy.

UPDATE : A comment by a co-conspirator is worth reproducing. Gordon said at the closing press conference that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) needed complete re-structuring so it could act as an "early warning system". Eh?

Dec 2003 IMF gives Brown borrowing warning
Sep 2005 IMF report warning over £1 trillion mountain of debt
Sep 2005 Brown besieged over growth and borrowing plans
Dec 2005 IMF fires new warning over Britain's finances
Sep 2006 IMF warns over UK property crash
Oct 2007 IMF report UK house market is 'heading for crash'
Apr 2008 IMF: UK vulnerable to US-style housing slump

You have been warned...

When Think Tanks Collide : CPS and Reform Clash Tonight

Guido gets invited to the occasional think tank bash and when in London generally goes to the ones with the best booze (full marks to the Adam Smith Institute - up market beers and champagne).

Not sure what the booze situation is tonight in Westminster for the Centre for Policy Studies seminar on Politics, Policy and the Internet, the invitation doesn't say. George Osborne is a big Politics 2.0 advocate of the power of the web and he is headlining it along with Tom Steinberg.

At exactly the same time over at Bloomberg's offices in the City, Jeremy Hunt, the DCMS Shadow, is talking about the New Media Politics Revolution. Booze is clearly highlighted on the invite.

Decisions, decisions...

Smith Institute Cash for Policy

Guido has just noticed that Gordon's favourite think-tank, the Smith Institute, has a new publication out today. In it the director-general of the Association of British Insurers (ABI), Stephen Haddrill, calls for a way out for the insurance industry from the "vicious circle of unquantified longevity risks".

So an insurer does not like risk - is he in the right business? He suggests shifting the risk off insurers onto taxpayers. Of course he wants the industry to be able to offer attractive low premiums by having the insurance industry state subsidised.

Guido expects big business with naked self interest to beg favours from big government, protectionism is the easy way to profits. But shouldn't an "independent" think tank question the propriety of such an arrangement? Who benefits from this apart from shareholders in insurance companies?

Guido called the Smith Institute to find out how much they were paid by the ABI to produce the report. The public charity refused to answer the question. Guido contacted the ABI's Jonathan French to ask the same, he has as yet not responded. Guido understands that the Smith Institute got a five-figure sum from the ABI. Would that compromise their independence or integrity?

UPDATE 16:00 : The ABI's Jonathan French has got back to Guido with the promise of an answer and a request to spell his name correctly.

Willetts Says Vampire Bats Are Tories

Guido is pretty certain that he did not dream hearing David Willetts this morning on Marr's Radio 4 show Start the Week compare (in a positive light) the altruistic social behaviour of vampire bats to Tory thinking about human social behaviour. Stepping back from the point he was making, which was both interesting and valid, it seems to me that only Willetts would try to win people over to the Tory cause using vampire bats.

Batty? Yep. God knows what Michael Howard will have to say about this...

The Tax Battle that Led to the Bottle

Propeller-Head Wonk Watch: As Polly howls in pain this morning at the Brown/Darling rhetorical U-turn on tax, which she correctly recognises has razed the ideological ground ahead of Brown as he retreats, who should we credit for her torment. Osborne? Well yes, but why did he select inheritance tax and stamp duty as tax cutting priorities?

Matthew Elliott's Tax Payers Alliance relentlessly highlighted the unpopularity of these particular taxes in the non-ideological language that practical politicians understand. They commissioned an ICM poll in August 2006 revealing that “significantly raising the threshold for inheritance tax, or abolishing it” was the second most popular cut after cutting Council tax. This September their YouGov poll confirmed that inheritance tax was perceived as being the most unfair tax of all and was the third most popular tax to be reduced, marginally behind lowering council tax and raising the tax-free personal allowance.

The poll findings made a deep impression on the Shadow Treasury team, proving that tax cuts could once again be a popular vote winner, giving Osborne the confidence to make the announcement that has turned around Tory fortunes. As Osborne takes the battle glory, remember who fired the opening shots...

Never Work With Guido, Children or Animals

In a rare and uncharacteristic act of selfless public service, Guido spoke at an event for a few hundred sixth formers today (the honarium was a decent bottle of Marguax). He advised the politically minded students that they would be better off not going into politics if they wanted to make the world a better place.

Afterwards one of the organisers thanked me - "Yeah, thanks for that, I'm sure all the teachers who brought sudents along were overjoyed when you recommended that the world would be better off if they became honest drug dealers and arms traders rather than politicians." Glad to be of service.

Early Election? Don't Think So...

Propellor-Head Wonk Watch: the appointment of Douglas Alexander to oversee preparations for the next general election might be seen by some as Brownite genius. Guido thinks that depends on how you view his overseeing of the recent election campaign where Labour lost control in Scotland for the first time in generations. Some think it could have been worse.

Guido remembers attending a Demos event last year where the new campaign commissar was giving his thoughts. With all this talk of an early election in the air the boys and girls at CCHQ and Cowley Street would do well to dig out his "Serving a Cause, Serving a Community" Demos pamphlet from last year. In it he urged the Labour party to work in partnership rather than parallel with like minded organisations including trade unions. Gordon is spinning today that he wants to reduce the power of the unions through one man, one vote.

He wrote about the party to becoming a "community hub" creating space for shared discussion with social interest groups who will have input into local party campaigns using blogs and chat rooms to encourage debate with those preferring not to go to formal party meetings. LabourHome is their best semi-unofficial attempt at this, and it still shaded by ConservativeHome.

He also claimed he wanted to throw off the control-freak shackles and loosen the rigid party structures to allow issues to be discussed informally and he wanted to decentralise professional party staff resources from national to local level. Once again the Tories have the edge here, they are far less control-freaky and they already have their Northern call-centre operation with regional offices benefiting from Lord Ashcroft's cash.

If the Demos pamphlet was Douglas Alexander's job application it will take time to achieve his goals for Labour. That together with their cash crisis, makes Guido doubtful they will go for an early election.

Where's Gordon?™ Begging for Votes

Gordon visited a school again yesterday for yet another photo-op with kids. This time it was the Adam Smith College in Fife. He made a plea for "Labour voters to come home to Labour" on four separate occasions during an address to students and young party activists.

Coincidentally, the respected Adam Smith Institute itself released a report calculating that Scotland could thrive as a free independent nation. If Scotland followed the low tax route to prosperity, a route which took the Republic of Ireland from the poorest country in the EU (per head) to the richest. Scotland, say the wonks at the Adam Smith Institute, could match that performance.

The ASI report can be downloaded here. Where's Gordon?™ tracks Gordon's campaign trail as he tries to shore up the Labour vote.

Wasting Police Time in Downing Street

Propeller-Head Wonk Watch: A well place co-conspirator emails to say he has seen Robert Gould, from the PM's Downing Street Strategy Unit, thumbing through a copy of Wasting Police Time, the book of the blog by everyone's favourite plod, PC David Copperfield. The police minister, Tony McNulty, reckons the book is "more of a fiction than Dickens."

Strange that one of the top wonks in Downing Street is reading fiction the week after Nick Herbert, the talented Tory shadow police minister, put forward some interesting policy ideas. Perhaps it is just holiday reading.