ICM Whisper Number Puts By-Election Closer Than Thought

An ICM poll for the Mail on Sunday tomorrow will put it neck and neck in Crewe & Nantwich, with the Tories on 43% to Labour's 39% and the LibDems trailing far behind on 16%. Believe it or not Guido has backed Labour on Betfair on the back of this, their 3.5 price seemed a bit rich given the narrow 4% difference.

What will have the mobile phone ricocheting around No. 10 is the startling finding that Labour voters would rather have Cameron than Brown as PM. Gordon is dead man ranting.

+++ YouGov Whisper Number : 26% Tory Lead +++

Did Guido mention before that we told you so?

John Hutton didn't mince his words when he gave Nick Robinson his prediction. He was right.

He made this forecast (video here) to a Question Time audience. He got it wrong, it took five months.

They are going to miss three times election winning Blair when he is gone. Wait and see...
26 June 2007

UPDATE : It occurs to Guido that Michael Portillo may now have to revise his opinion. So Brillo, tonight on the This Week show, ask Polly if he still thinks, as he did only two months ago, that "Brown will win the election".

YouGov Called National Share of the Vote Right

Which bodes well for their lone call of London for Boris....

The Calculus of Political Pain and Pleasure

This PoliticsHome derived chart pretty much sums up the political pain / pleasure calculus for the parties tonight. Given only some 4,000 seats are up for grabs, rather than the 10,000 seats last time, it would be be extraordinary to see a 200 seat move. If the LibDems keep their losses low they will have done well. If Labour loses seats to below the level of Blair's Warmongering low that literally decimated Labour last time (and paved the way for Brown to "save the party") the recriminations will flow like Tory champagne...

Via : New Statesman

Ipsos-Mori V YouGov

Today will be the day where YouGov makes or breaks its reputation. YouGov alone is predicting victory for Boris - the rest of the major pollsters go for Ken by slim margins. Last night it looked to Guido like Ipsos-Mori were in CYA* mode, posting comments on PoliticalBetting.Com nuancing their position. Punters believe and trust YouGov...

Mori in the past have spun bad calls with "last minute surge" lines. Expect more of the same...

*Cover Your Ass

+++ YouGov Whisper Number Has Boris Ahead 6% +++

Mike Smithson has the whisper from a reliable source that YouGov's last poll has Boris "leading Ken 44%-36% on first preferences. After second preferences that becomes 53% to 47%."

+++ YouGov: Boris 11% Ahead on First preferences +++

10% after second preferences...

Mother of the House Dead

Gwyneth Dunwoody, couldn't stand her politics, loved her attitude. She was, as all the obituaries say, a New Labour defying parliamentary. She was also a patriotic and principled Euros-ceptic. You don't see many of them in New Labour.

Mike Smithson over at PoliticalBetting.com reckons the Tories could win it if they translated their national lead to a local 8% swing. Guido is not so sure, LibDems live and die for by-elections and if Labour are smart enough to choose someone local in Gwyneth's mould, rather than a New Labour clone, they could defend it successfully by running 'against' the Westminster establishment. All to play for...

Schrödinger's Guardian

Guido is really getting into the concept of quantum politics, it certainly raised the tone of the discussion in the comments on the blog above the usual webmong level on Saturday. It appears that the developing theory of quantum politics will also have to factor in the time dimension to explain the Guardian's headlines. The subs must be under instruction to make every poll positive for Ken Leavingsoon. Last Wednesday it was good news for the newt lover. He was in the lead!Today it good news as well. Ken is catching up on Boris!

How do they do that? Quantum duality again?

Elsewhere Sir Michael White says (There is no alternative to Gordon) his Guardian colleague Polly is only writing nasty things about Gordon because she is bored and it is parliamentary recess. There may be some truth in that, still Guido is so enjoying the whole meltdown by former Brown fans. The most vicious attacks on the Brownies are coming from Guardian writers and readers. It is really getting like here over there (with a little less swearing).

Why Do Brownies Like American Losers?

The rumour in PR Week that Stephen Carter wants Mark Penn to come over and advise Brown dumbfounds Guido. Penn, a pollster, was supposedly fired in disgrace from the Clinton campaign after he was found to be taking money to lobby against Hillary's own policies. (It is all a bit of a sham, she doesn't really believe in the policy, he isn't really fired). He hasn't exactly proved to be the wisest of counsels to Clinton has he? Clearly he will be perfect for Brown.

Gordon has fallen out with Bob Shrum, the unrivalled adviser to 8 losing Democratic Party presidential campaigns. Shrum was last seen at Heathrow, fleeing the country after a bollocking from an ungrateful Brown.

Still, the payments he picked up via the Smith Institute during his time as an adviser to Brown will cushion his hurt...

Political Junkie Home Launches Monday

Guido is looking forward to the launch of PoliticsHome for one reason, it promises to make political reporting a numbers game, like U.S. sports reporting or financial news. Anyway in a cunning ruse to get coverage they are giving an insight into the kind of numbers they are polling daily from their politically balanced "insider" panel.

They are selectively giving tasters of their polling results out for us to nibble on, today it is Guido's turn to discover that:

5% of insiders think "the British political system is not in any need of any significant reform".

The other 95% breakdown as follows:

• It would benefit from some constitutional tweaks, but no more: 32%

• We need to make some fundamental, far-reaching reforms: 50%

• We need something like a revolution in our conception of how British democracy should work 12%

• None of these 2%

That 5% must be crackers. Guido would like the reporting of politics to be more like a blood sport...

Brown's Loyalists "Part of the Problem", Not the Solution

They are calling it Downing Street blue-on-blue infighting. The neo-Brownies from the PR world ousting the old Brownie tribe who successfully undermined Blair. The truth is the Brownies are second rate compared to the Blairites, this was patently obvious to any objective observer. Even Guido, no fan of Blair, could see that he was a politician with a high calibre team. Brown on the other hand is a brooding malevolent weirdo who had no choice but to surround himself with second raters, Blair had attracted the best and the brightest of New Labour's talent pool.

The Brownies were able to undermine a triple election winning prime minister, brief against rivals, selectively leak, obstruct, frustrate rival policy objectives out of spite and generally behave like petulant secretive plotters always positioning for factional advantage rather than in the national interest. They were capable of that, alas when they finally assumed control of No. 10 it became clear within months that they were not a capable or competent premiership team.
If Gordon is to have any hope of narrowing the double digit lead Cameron has over him at the polls he clearly needs to up his game. Stephen Carter has been brought in from his job as CEO of Brunswick to do that because the veteran Brownies are part of the problem, not the solution, too immersed in the Labour tribe, good at arm twisting the party rank and file, not at reaching out to swing voters. His PPS Ian Austin's heckles of Cameron at PMQs amuse only the class warriors on the Labour back benches - they even manage to irritate the chippy Speaker. His counsel is no use to Gordon now the electorate that matters to him is no longer merely the PLP.

Month after month of poll decline has finally got the message through to Brown. Hence we see the marginalising of his former closest supporters, even his pollster, Deborah Mattinson is said to be on her way out. Spencer Livermore went in tears. Gordon's praetorian guard MPs Tom Watson and Iain Austin, respectively Gordon's attack puppy and heckler-in-chief, occupied ground floor offices in Downing Street adjacent to the cabinet room. The pair liked to think of themselves as Gordon's enforcers. Stephen Carter has had them kicked out of their offices and their places taken by his deputy and secretary.

Brown : "I Don't Look at Polls"

Brown has just told Sky's Adam Boulton that he doesn't look at opinion polls. An absolutely blatant lie.

He even has a personal pollster - Deborah Mattinson - who must now dread telling him the bad news. After Mattinson told him he would lose the marginals, he bottled having an election. When he told the press pack that they weren't a factor they were incredulous. When he told Cameron the same at PMQs the Tory benches fell about laughing. He is like most politicians, poll obsessed.

Facts :

• Labour is polling at levels not seen since the nadir of Blair.
• The News of the World tomorrow will report that on "economic competence", Labour has finally lost the positive poll differential it has enjoyed over the Tories ever since the 1992 ERM debacle.
• The Mail on Sunday has a poll rating Brown as less competent than John Major and Darling as less competent than Lamont.
• If Blair were leading Labour they would be neck and neck with the Tories instead of 5% behind according to the same BPIX poll.
  

Maybe it would be better for his state-of-mind if he doesn't look at the papers tomorrow...

3% Tory Lead Finishes Gordon's Miserable Week

Graphic credit : ConservativeHome

Can you imagine the cackling of Cherie Blair? Tony sat beside her on the sofa drinking a decent bottle of Barolo, TV remote in hand, repeatedly rewinding the videotape of PMQs and cheering on Cameron in between sips of the wine, tears of laughter rolling down his cheeks.

Labour MPs in marginal seats this weekend will be wondering what they have wrought. Three times Blair led them to victory, the latest poll shows that after just three months, Brown is a likely loser, along with their seats.

The Tories really should consider sending Tom Watson a bottle of champagne for his part in Blair's downfall, particularly after he lost that £100 bet with Cameron...

No2ID to Advocate No2Labour Tactical Voting

Word reaches Guido that at a meeting scheduled for next Tuesday the leaders of the NO2ID campaign are likely to decide on an election strategy advocating tactical voting to oust MPs who support ID cards at the election.

The message is simple; if you want to get rid of ID cards, vote against those who voted for them. Two examples where this strategy might work to devastating effect are Tooting and Islington South:

In Islington South the Tories came a distant third, but the LibDem was less than 400 votes behind left-wing Labour MP Emily Thornberry. Tories should vote for the LibDem and enjoy getting rid of the ID card loving, CND supporting MP.

In Tooting the LibDems were nearly 10,000 votes behind Labour Sadiq Khan, if they switched votes to the second-placed Tory candidate they would be getting rid of an authoritarian Labour MP who voted strongly for introducing national ID cards, strongly for Labour's anti-terrorism laws and very strongly against investigating the Iraq war.

As things stand the third placed party has no hope, the result of widespread tactical voting would be less MPs to push through ID cards and guaranteed LibDem and Tory gains. Across the country tactical voting would further slash Labour's majority. The logic is clear, where a LibDem or Tory is in a distant third place, vote for the candidate most likely to unseat the ID card supporter. Guido doesn't think it impossible we could see Nick Clegg and David Davis on the same anti-ID cards platform.

Of course fear of tactical voting could result in Gordon Brown dropping ID cards altogether before the election - which would be huge a victory for the NO2ID campaign...

Brown Bounce Finished

Graphic credit : ConHom

The Guardian's ICM poll signals the Brown Bounce is over, and now (after a delay much longer than Guido expected) Labour's post-Blair lemming-like lurch will re-commence. The Tories had a good conference, the Brown election bluff brought about unity in Blackpool, Dave gave a purposeful speech which was head and shoulders over Brown's plagiarised effort. Brown's well planned gimmicks, spin and fakery gave him a good summer, but this winter we'll hear no more talk of destroying the Tories and "all the talents" won't save him now.

It wasn't the speech that turned the polls around, although if Dave had not delivered a good speech it would have undermined the advance of the Tories, it was the return of the Tory party's Unique Selling Point - tax cuts. Family-orientated tax cuts are a clear vote winner - so keen have the Tories been to decontaminate themselves that they threw away their USP. Look at Clinton, even he was elected on a promise of family-orientated tax cuts. The Cameroons have committed themselves to Gordon's spending plans for the first three years of government, so Ed Balls is going to argue that the sums don't add up. If that is going to be the battleground, the Tories can win on those terms.

The middle classes don't care half as much about the arithmetic as they do about the result. Balls and Brown are so out of touch with middle-England they don't seem to understand how much the tax burden is detested by the middle-classes, who know instinctively that there is government waste to be reduced. Tax is also the issue that swung the Daily Mail and The Telegraph back behind the Tories, The Sun is "loving it" too. The raison d 'etre of the Conservatives party is to reduce taxes, if they ever forget it they are finished.

SNP Surge 15% Ahead of Labour in Scotland

The SNP in power have not performed as disastrously as Labour's pre-election scaremongering depicted. Remember the dire warnings of capital flight and businesses re-locating? Which explains why in office their poll ratings have surged - expectations were so unrealistically low.

A lot of Scottish Labour MPs will be very worried by the prospect of an early election in Scotland... no "Brown bounce" in to be seen at home...

Guardian/ICM Poll : Nobody Likes Dave and Tory Party?

Guido was sure his brain was too addled by alcohol when he saw the front page of the Guardian this morning. Rich Johnston emailed it in and the penny didn't drop until he explained it slowly. According to the Guardian's ICM poll sample of 1005 randomly telephoned adults, not one single person likes David Cameron and the Conservative Party. Some like the party, some like Dave, but none like both. Guido knew the polls were bad for Dave, but really, does no one like 'em both?

UPDATE : Turns out that it was a difficult to explain Grauniad cock-up, the actual figures from ICM were very different - 25% liked both Dave and the Tories. Pretty "cavalier with the facts" report, it should have been obvious that something was wrong, maybe over at the Guardian they can more easily believe that nobody likes Cameron. In the real world he is a bit more popular than on Farringdon road.

Brown's "Lemming Bounce" Confirmed

The Indy headline says it all - Brown's 'bounce' fails to materialise as Tories take five-point lead. The somewhat deranged voices who think Brown will be the electoral saviour of the Labour party will be terribly disappointed.

Guido predicted the Lemming effect - they are going to miss three times election winning Blair when he is gone. Wait and see...

Another Poll Confirms the Brown Deficit

On the weekend the YouGov poll in the Sunday Times emphasised the electoral liability that Gordon is to Labour. When asked to choose between Cameron and Brown the voters prefer Dave more than when asked to choose between Labour and the Tories.

Today Populus in the Times* re-confirms the finding, when asked to choose between the parties it has the Tories 4% ahead, when asked to choose between the leaders the Tories are 10% ahead - exactly the same result as YouGov.

Putting the crude numbers into the electoral calculus translates that differential, the Brown Deficit, into 60 lost Labour marginal seats. Now you know why Guido says it is lemming-like to dispatch Blair for Brown...

*How the hell Peter Riddell and Philip Webster can spin the poll as positive for Brown is beyond Guido. What people will do for access. The headline is "A Bounce for Brown". Maybe they mean a lemming-like bounce, with people even less likely to vote Labour when Brown is leader.