Comments on Guy Fawkes' blog of parliamentary plots, rumours and conspiracy: Opinion Polls versus Actual Votes

I'm trying to work through all the factors that wi...

2007-10-03T21:33:00.000+01:00

I'm trying to work through all the factors that will influence the outcome of a November 1st election... (I've used "+ve" to mean more Labour seats, "-ve" for the opposite.)

a. Gordon instead of Tony: +ve. Can he be attacked effectively during a campaign? There's plenty to attack, but the mood seems to be "Better the devil you know" rather than "It's time for a change." (And he is a change anyway.)

b. David instead of Michael: -ve. Although I'm not a great fan of the man, I think he's capable of a great campaign, or at least one that's better than the last shambles. Labour are merciless though, so the chances of getting through to November 1st with nothing going wrong are pretty slim.

c. Dark nights: -ve? Holding the election after the end of BST will cut turnout especially among carless voters.

d. Boundary changes: -ve.

e. Problems with the electoral roll: -ve. Actually I'm not sure. Most of the people currently missing from the electoral roll are potential Labour voters, but that hasn't stopped Labour winning huge victories. The problems this year may have more effect on the Tory vote, since people who've moved home (including students) are more likely to be potential Tory voters.

f. Going too soon: -ve? Gordon's bound to get some flak for wasting money on an election, but attacks based on such procedural matters usually bore the electorate so I don't think much breath will be wasted on this issue.

g. State of the Parties: +ve? The parties are virtually in the same state now that they were at the last election, so why shouldn't the result be the same? Labour still has its ultra-effective party machine while the Tories still have their aging, confused and lacklustre support.

h. Weak LibDems: +ve. Tories gain 15, Labour gain 5.

i. Other parties (England): -ve. Calling a snap election will seriously dent the vote for minor parties. This should help consolidate the Tory vote in marginals.

j. Other parties (Scotland/Wales): -ve. The SNP is likely to gain a bit, but almost entirely from the LibDems.

Changes to Labour majority:
a +60 b -40 c -10 d -20 e 0 f 0 g 0 h +10 i -20 j -4
total: -24

which gives Labour a solid 40-seat majority, and Guido praying for a miracle.

On the subject of defections from Conservative to ...

2007-09-29T22:35:00.000+01:00

On the subject of defections from Conservative to New Fascist Labour.

Has anyone noticed the type of Tory's the New Fascist Labour party have been attracting?

You guested it, Fascist Tory's.

The quicker these types leave the better for the Conservative Party and its otherwise unrepresented people.

If liberal or libertarian Conservative MP's were leaving to join Fascist Labour. The National Party that is supposed to represent Conservatism would be in terminal decline and not ever worth saving again.

Fascist Labour are now talking like the reactionary authoritarian Fascist far left wing illiberal bastards Party, it always was going to be after 3 terms in power.

Cameron has so much room to move more liberal now, its almost embarrassing. The Lib/Dems should be showing no more then 10% by now and falling.

However all this is academic BECAUSE

IMHO

GB is allowed to be in power for one reason. That is to deliver us fully chained into the US of Europe by stealth, and no coming back.

After Brown and Blair have completed their mucky deed. Cameron will be the next selected prime minister of what will be left of the UK.

Brown on 44%?--more than Saint Phony in 1997?--the...

2007-09-29T18:27:00.000+01:00

Brown on 44%?--more than Saint Phony in 1997?--the last 10 years have turned a country that was already in trouble into an open air toilet with arrogant tyranny quite possible in a decade or so. 44%--Bullshit. Even with an idiot like Cameron as the Tories leader don't underestimate the sheer hatred of NuLab that is out there.
Also Brown would have to break his campaign to slime over to euroland if the sell out is to be signed on time.
Last but not least a Scottish meltdown is on the cards with the Nats doing great business--esp if Scots Tories and Lib Dems take their chance to vote tactically--first in a long time--McBroon might find himself in real trouble--just losing is not the only bad outcome for him--a hung Parliament or a tiny majority that a few rebs could wipe out would be just as terrible to this evil deceitful control freak

Most Tories are ecstatic that Blair has gone. Any...

2007-09-29T16:36:00.000+01:00

Most Tories are ecstatic that Blair has gone. Any Tory will tell you (as much as it might hurt) that he was unbeatable. Something that cannot be said of Brown. He is completely beatable. Blair would not have dithered. He would have gone for it in an Autumn poll.

Guido, let's face it your previous efforts at putt...

2007-09-29T08:12:00.000+01:00

Guido, let's face it your previous efforts at putting your money where your gob is have singularly failed to make anyone except the bookies any richer.Sadly, as a Tory, unlike Cameron who isn't one, I can't see this one paying off for you either.

oh deargordon in your quick success on turning tor...

2007-09-28T23:50:00.000+01:00

oh dear
gordon in your quick success on turning tory heads , well you did and for a brief period they were worried that you could pull it off .(an election win that is)
but now look whats happening camerons call on your bluff , tories voters now saying lack of response is weak, you see what happens when you decieve the british people and they find out

you run the risk now of conning both nu lab and conservative voters , youve set up one hell of fight now . should have been honest tut tut .

thanks
the partys over

I doubt the snot gobbler will risk an election, he...

2007-09-28T20:29:00.000+01:00

I doubt the snot gobbler will risk an election, he's a coward to the core.

Good for fuck all except shitting.

That is the best investment you have ever made.It ...

2007-09-28T20:02:00.000+01:00

That is the best investment you have ever made.

It has become clear to me that David Cameron is the next SELECTED prime minister of what will be left of the UK by then.

Not human reptiles but potentially just as dangerous.

I think there could be a full blown finacial crisi...

2007-09-28T17:20:00.000+01:00

I think there could be a full blown finacial crisis by June next year, which is what matters in the real world, and which will destroy Labour for a generation. Just look at the figures coming out of the US on housing - and we haven't even started yet. Even the papers are carrying stories of Credit Card compnaies cutting limits. JUst wait until all those cheques to them start bouncing as well.

i think nu labour are in for a surprise , gordon h...

2007-09-28T16:47:00.000+01:00

i think nu labour are in for a surprise , gordon has played a good hand , keeping those policies close waiting to see what the conservatives are offering , trouble is his faithfull now see the labour brand as being in trouble in that it stands for plagarism.
this is underming the core vote and hollowing out the party. ming is waiting to scoop all the disaffected wanderers.

gordons double bluff whilst clever , has now made him look weak add to that the ever worsening situation of going back on a manifesto pledge.

its no election this autum which he thinks will make his mandate more acceptable later on , if i were cameron i would have a light conference and then start on the list when parliment opens , no one would blame him for playing safe , let gordons financial woes make more of the population feel cheated , wipe labour off the map in 9 months time (june i think)

thanks
the partys over

Andrew, mr check your facts, thanks for that lovel...

2007-09-28T16:00:00.000+01:00

Andrew, mr check your facts, thanks for that lovely BBC link which clearly shows that Labour have managed to fuck with the boundaries and whatever else they can to give themselves unfair advantage in any election.

I urge everyone to check Andrews link and examine the figures closely from the last election in England...

Although the Tories won more votes in England, Labour won nearly 100 more seats with less votes. This clearly demostrates the lack of any real democracy in our (fucked) country..

Zorro
--

Headlines coming soon to a paper near you."BROWN B...

2007-09-28T15:16:00.000+01:00

Headlines coming soon to a paper near you.
"BROWN BOTTLES IT"
Or is it more likely to be on page 10
underneath an advert for Sanilav?
"......Brown is just getting on with running (from) the country."

What's the second reason for betting on the Tories...

2007-09-28T15:03:00.000+01:00

What's the second reason for betting on the Tories??

The new electoral boundaries are in place now - so...

2007-09-28T15:00:00.000+01:00

The new electoral boundaries are in place now - so why can Brown be rushing?

It's a pity that Cameron is sooo hooked on the 'Environment'. The scientific evidence for Global Warming is not as conclusive as many are lead to believe. As for banning ordinary light-bulbs - what typical NuLabour stalinism. There are light fittings that will not take the so-called low energy bulbs. I have never heard any environmentalist add up the total cost of making and transporting these bulbs. Also don't forget to factor in the replacement cost for premature failure. This factor is because switch-on is the most stressful time for ANY bulb - the current surge - and the bulb is most likely to fail. Hence they are not so clever an investment. I bet Zac does not understand that.

If Gordy does decide to hold an early election he ...

2007-09-28T14:50:00.000+01:00

If Gordy does decide to hold an early election he is not going to be able to rely on his current strategy of waiting for the Dutch to say NO to the Treaty on his behalf.
If he goes to the Country on his current policy of no referendum he is going to be stuffed by Middle England.
If he changes current policy by saying yes - then he is going to look like an unprincipled chicken - again ripe for stuffing.
Can't wait!

I have fucking had enough of this bullshit.C'mon L...

2007-09-28T14:49:00.000+01:00

I have fucking had enough of this bullshit.
C'mon Labour trolls if you are hard enough.
If you think the new great helmsman is the greatest PM since time began. A political genius of unparalleled proportion with swooning voters sprinkling rose petals in front of him wherever he walks then call the fucking election now. TODAY
I'm totally fucking bored out of my mind listening to trolls, labour ministers and pundits fretting about whether to go for the election or not.
You lot are like my teenage daughter fretting about whether Dan from Home Ec fancies her or not.
I hope Broon calls it on November 1st and it fucking pisses it down all day so all the labour voters stay at home watching Jeremy Kyle and and Brown gets his arse truly kicked.
His embarrassment would be the greatest political moment since Thatch walked into No.10

Anonytwat at 11.54: "Labour cannot win without a l...

2007-09-28T14:42:00.000+01:00

Anonytwat at 11.54: "Labour cannot win without a lead in Scotland because they do not have a majority in England."

A complete lie you ignorant twat - Labour has a majority of 43 in England alone!

There are 59 MPs in Scotland, compared to 591 in England. At the last election, in England alone:

Lab had 286 MPs in England
Con had 194 MPs in England
LDim had 47 MPs in England
plus two independents

Check your facts before spouting off!

And don't forget:

England has an awful Labour government because England voted for it

...regardless of what happened in Scotland.

Ah... Jack Straw that aptly named scourge of Pinoc...

2007-09-28T14:40:00.000+01:00

Ah... Jack Straw that aptly named scourge of Pinochet, who never got over his 5 seconds of fame as a student activist - another profession ideal for forming the this administration of cloud-cuckoo-land, self-regarding halfwits.

A vainglorious popinjay whose sole contribution to the Nation has been...anybody?

What do we know of his delightful son these days. Doing some good somewhere surely, like prick like asshole.

After their crap showing in last night's by-electi...

2007-09-28T14:28:00.000+01:00

After their crap showing in last night's by-elections it's amusing to see Brown's fuckwitted trolls angry, confused, and full of fake bravado on here, politicalbetting.co, dale and the rest of the blogosphere.

You sad bastards are shitting yourselves today and so is your snot-eating, deranged excuse for a leader.

Guido, what's with the lame CCHQ propaganda? "Swin...

2007-09-28T14:24:00.000+01:00

Guido, what's with the lame CCHQ propaganda? "Swings to Cameron..."????

Did or did not brave Jack the Lad also "have a go"...

2007-09-28T14:13:00.000+01:00

Did or did not brave Jack the Lad also "have a go" at Oona "I'll do anything to get a safe seat" King? Though rumur has it she was willing unlike the late Fiona Jones.

Bias BBC:-"The Conservatives have won a by-electio...

2007-09-28T13:58:00.000+01:00

Bias BBC:-

"The Conservatives have won a by-election victory, taking a seat from Labour on Sunderland Council.

It was one of nine by-elections held. With one result outstanding, Labour retained six seats and the Tories one.

BBC political correspondent Sean Curran said analysis of the eight contests suggested that nationally the Tories should have a lead over Labour of 6.2%.

But he said polls did not reflect that, a fact Gordon Brown would consider when thinking about an autumn election."

The last two paragraphs are /mind boggling/. The Tories, in an ACTUAL ELECTION, have a swing of 6.2% in their favour, but THE POLLS DID NOT REFLECT THIS, the obvious implication being that the OPINION POLLS are more valid/important/real than an actual FUCKING ELECTION.

Who believes these opinion polls have any bearing on the reality of an election result anyway?

I suspect (no in fact I'm fucking positive) that lots of tories are responding to opinion polls that they would vote labour/liberal because DC has pissed them off (with Grammar schools, continuation of labour's high taxes etc) but they would no more do so than bite off their own penis'

Zorro

It will be interesting to see how Brown performs i...

2007-09-28T13:55:00.000+01:00

It will be interesting to see how Brown performs in the Commons -- so far he's largely managed to escape that arena. To date he's managed to bathe himself in a sort of glow; the feeling one gets from a really good dump (with acknowledgements to David Mamet's Glengarry Glenross), the heap of cooling and unwanted faeces being of course the former occupant of No. 10.

Didn't Jack Straw want to "have a go" at the late ...

2007-09-28T13:53:00.000+01:00

Didn't Jack Straw want to "have a go" at the late Fiona Jones?

"Hero" wasn't quite the word I had in mind...

The press are looking more closely at these incide...

2007-09-28T13:33:00.000+01:00

The press are looking more closely at these incidents where Straw claimed to have been a "have-a-go-hero". It seems that the facts are considerably at odds with what he claims.

More in the papers this Sunday.