+++ YouGov Whisper Number Has Boris Ahead 6% +++
Mike Smithson has the whisper from a reliable source that YouGov's last poll has Boris "leading Ken 44%-36% on first preferences. After second preferences that becomes 53% to 47%."
Boris will win and nothing else will really matter tomorrow. Polly Toynbee and all the rest of the chattering classes will choke on their words. Labour will finally understand in their collective consciousness that they made a terrible choice in replacing the triple election-winning Tony with the triple election-avoiding* Gordon.
Now he is off, saying “The valuable time spent here has opened my eyes to a number of opportunities outside the firm which it would not be possible to take up were I to continue. FD has been kind enough to release me and I am very grateful for that...." blah blah blah... Everyone is being suspiciously nice about things and smiling. Guido believes that constitutionally and practically it is too late to mount a formal leadership challenge to Brown's under Labour Party rules in time for the September conference. So it would have to be by non-constitutional means that he is dragged out of Downing Street - Jack Straw no doubt will be at the back of the delegation doing the dragging. Another option is to make the 42-days vote effectively a confidence vote. Since the opposition will unanimously vote it down, it will be up to Labour backbenchers if they want to get rid of their unelected leader.
If Gordon kicks 42-days into touch it will signal his fears of the consequences...
Surpisingly today Dave didn't go off on the local elections, he challenged Gordon to make the 42-days vote a confidence vote. Gordon swerved the opportunity.
UBM has announced that it is fleeing Britain's rapacious tax regime for the friendly and more welcoming business environment to be found in Ireland. Vince Cable has condemned UBM as corporate tax dodgers. 
Just got off the phone with Hilary Benn's SpAds, they promise to get back to Guido. They are going to ask Hilary what, in the circumstances, he is going to do with his significant and correctly declared, shareholding in United Business Media (thought to be worth 7 figures). Will he divest, vote against the move or sell his shares?
David Aaronovitch, refreshed after addressing the jolly ranks of hedge fund managers and brokers in the Caymans, has a revealing article in this morning's Times. He basically bemoans the lack of unflinching loyalty to the Brown cause from the Guardianista commentariat.Kate Hoey will be Mayor Boris' sports adviser in the run-up to the Olympics and if some rumours are to be believed, Brian Paddick, not Boris himself, will be his chair of the Metropolitan Police Authority. That would be sweet revenge for Paddick, although it might not be so comfortable for Sir Iain Blair...Gordon and the diminishing band of loyal Brownies must be thinking ahead to May 2 about the tactics and strategies to be employed to quell a PLP mutiny. The declining wider membership is so demoralised and disappointed that it is for now quiescient and no grassroots threat is likely. Avoiding giving the PLP opportunities to lash out at Gordon will be the prime goal.The company valued at £1.3 billion is fleeing the shores of Britain's increasingly high tax regime, joining the FTSE 100's Shire Pharma in what is becoming a trend as Britain becomes less competitive.
UBM will become tax resident in Ireland, where we enjoy corporation tax rates of 12.5% compared with the 28% suffered in the UK. 
Like a biblical omen, darkness has fallen on Ken's City Hall.
Frankly Guido is full of admiration for the 64 year-old. Coke-fuelled sex orgies with high class hookers can't be easy on someone recovering from prostate cancer and a heart attack. The News of the Screws has him at it with 4 girls, a gigolo and a tri-lingual bisexual. He has given £7 million to the Tories out of his £700 million fortune, so plenty left over for enjoying himself. He has now checked himself into a sex addiction clinic...username : harriet
password : harman
And the pace of the fall off may be quickening. Last week's performance show, featuring the songs of Mariah Carey, one of the most successful pop singers in history, was the lowest-rated Tuesday "Idol" in five years among TV's most important demographic, adults ages 18 to 49. The subsequent results show, in which country warbler Kristy Lee Cook got the hook, delivered "Idol's" worst Wednesday numbers among adults ages 18 to 34 since its first season back in summer 2002. Producers also saw depressed ratings for their "Idol Gives Back" charity extravaganza, which this year aired as a stand-alone show with no competition-related material.
Pitt-Watson has missed three officers’ meetings and at least two business board meetings and has communicated only to confirm that he had not given notice to his present employer.
click to enlarge
Frank Doran is Chairman of the Commons Admin-istration Committee. His Committee has decided that MPs will continue to drink bottled water.
The British Legion have launched a campaign* - the issue they want to promote to the public and politicians is the injustice of a situation where the families of soldiers who die heroically do not receive financial aid for legal representation in Court. When convicted child molesters die in custody, their families get legal aid. Why should soldier's families be treated worse?
Gordon repeatedly tells us that Britain will weather the global financial turbulence better than America. The Bank of England projects that over a million homeowners could face negative equity in the widely expected property market downturn. The data above shows that British homeowners are more indebted than even Americans...
CCHQ sends a press release:Shadow Foreign Secretary William Hague, has today called on David Miliband to take urgent action with regard to the Chinese ship, currently heading to Uganda carrying arms bound for Zimbabwe.Guido suggests the Shadow Foreign Secretary need not lose any sleep over Chinese ships heading to Uganda. Just a hunch...
Gordon is "Reviewing the Situation"
What was it he said about Gordon? Quentin Davies accused him of "unreliability and an apparent lack of any clear convictions". Oh no, it was Dave he accused of that, before he joined the ditherering, U-turning party. Gordon was "a leader I have always greatly admired, who I believe is entirely straightforward, and who has a towering record, and a clear vision for the future of our country which I fully share." Shared clear vision? You didn't see the political disaster that he is coming, did you Quentin?
At PMQs Dave called Gordon "a loser not a leader". The hastily cobbled together deal placated Frank Field this morning and he withdrew his amendment. Apparently the sticking plaster for the lower paid will be backdated and will include "changes to the winter fuel payment system, tax credits and the minimum wage in order to compensate those losing out from the ending of the 10p rate.""You're wrong. No one will lose out. Come on . . . you guys have exaggerated it all."When BBC political editor Nick Robinson insisted there was a sizeable Labour revolt, Mr Brown fired back*: "No it isn't. There are just one or two MPs asking questions."
When a journalist from a Labour-supporting paper insisted that the rebellion was far bigger, Mr Brown scowled: "Really? Really? That's what you say."
He was equally abrupt with ITN political editor Tom Bradby, who had asked him at the White House about the resignation threat by ministerial aide Angela Smith.
Mr Brown was forced to break off from his White House talks to beg Ms Smith not to resign. "You said a Minister was going to resign, but she didn't," Mr Brown told Mr Bradby.
Asked "What did Angela Smith say to you?" Mr Brown replied: "She just phoned me to say she wasn't resigning."
BBC Newsnight political editor Michael Crick asked sarcastically: "She phoned you up at the White House to tell you she wasn't resigning? Do all your Ministers do that?"
Another journalist put Mr Brown on the spot: "Do you acknowledge that there will be some losers from this tax change?"
The Prime Minister replied: "No. It's not as simple as that."
Britain is getting more and more like Zimbabwe every day, a leader afraid of elections, food prices soaring and now petrol prices jumping 25% in a week.The Grangemouth oil refinery is on the verge of shutdown as it looks like a two-day strike by staff will go ahead this weekend.
Reports from around the country tell of queues of panic buyers worried that the 200,000 barrel-a-day Grangemouth refinery closure will force the BP Forties Pipeline System, which transfers oil from more than 50 North Sea fields, to be turned off. If the dispute lasts for more than two days Britain will run dry...
Sky's Jon Craig, who didn't join the Lobby to stand around in bars speculating idly, is playing 
