Ipsos-Mori V YouGov
Today will be the day where YouGov makes or breaks its reputation. YouGov alone is predicting victory for Boris - the rest of the major pollsters go for Ken by slim margins. Last night it looked to Guido like Ipsos-Mori were in CYA* mode, posting comments on PoliticalBetting.Com nuancing their position. Punters believe and trust YouGov...Mori in the past have spun bad calls with "last minute surge" lines. Expect more of the same...
*Cover Your Ass
43 comments:
"Last night it looked to Guido like Ipsos-Mori where in CYA* mode"
watch your grammar Guido, it sgould be 'were in CYA mode'
Follow the money. Nuff said.
We have one of those 'Greenery' people standing in our local election. Gorgeous girl, huge tits. I wont be voting for her and we'll still put all our wine and cider bottlers in the wheelie - but she does make me think.
Thanks Will. The position of sub-editor is etc...
It's all over.
Ken has already conceded defeat to his closest lieutenants this morning. He expects to be at least 5% behind Johnson at the final reckoning.
Don't give him the sub-editors job! He can't spell 'should'. I'll do it for a tenner.
Guido doesn't vote, it only encourages them.
Tell you what, you wouldn't know there was an election today if all you looked at was the BBC. We're twenty minutes into the World at One and they haven't even mentioned it yet.
Top stories on bbc.co.uk/news this lunchtime?
A Hartlepool woman's conviction for infanticide is overturned;
Austrian nutter threatens to gas his daughter;
Something about an air raid in Somalia;
The bloody McCanns, AGAIN;
Bomb goes off in Baghdad, AGAIN;
Oh, and something about the government facing a thrashing in the London mayoral election ...
Please dont forget Ken is getting what he wanted all those years ago - a man called Boris in charge.
Voting felt good today for the first time in years as there is a real chance of getting rid of the shower now.
I will be pissing myself when Ken heaps a Kelvin Mackenzie style bag of Shit over Gordons head tomorrow night.
Well done Guido - the insurrection is catching on.
Tell you what, you wouldn't know there was an election today if all you looked at was the BBC. We're twenty minutes into the World at One and they haven't even mentioned it yet.
The Represenation of the Peoples Act makes broadcasting on election difficult.
The BBC normally plays it very safe. People are voting in the elections toady, is all they will report.
come 10pm the full political anaylsis will begin no doubt.
I actually like the news on election days as they cover stories that are not normally covered. Today Programme has a different feel to it on election days.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-mayor/article-23481555-details/Postal+voting+trends+favour+Ken's+rivals/article.do
Tories may actually benefit from postal voting!
'The BBC normally plays it very safe. People are voting in the elections toady, is all they will report.'
"Elections toady" - says it all reallt Tayto!
I hope it's true that Livingspawnofthedevil has privately conceded defeat. Some semblance of sanity might return to London politics when Boris moves in. The champagne is waiting to pop its cork.
Tayto @ 1.47pm
"The Represenation of the Peoples Act makes broadcasting on election difficult".
Ah OK, I didn't know that, though I guess it figures.
The Beeb's the national broadcaster, however, and it does rather feel like nothing is happening. On the 2 pm bulletin, I learned that keyboards harbour more bacteria than a toilet seat. Who knew?
Maybe the Beeb foresaw today would be news-lite, and that is why Evan Davis was dragged out of bed to work this morning.
I'm awaiting Ken's concession speech with excitement and his post-loss interviews with glee. He really will pour a pile of sh1t all over Browns head. Ken whilst crap at running London is a pro when it comes to vitriol and insult. I can't wait
speedbird084 said...
I posted the almost exact same thing over at Dales. Just I pressed publish an advert for 5 live's up to the minute coverage came on. Apparantley the election starts at 10pm. [Scroblene called it correctly]
Ok not much to say but ..Fine.. why then did the bloody Marathon coverage last all day?
"This empty square is where the runners will meet up with their loved ones in just 9 hours time. Back to the studio for an interview with a man who's mum ran the marathon 2 years ago, but now has a bad hip."
Surely a few lines, a few comments?
No wonder we all look here first and Nick robinson last.
The future of England should be in directly-elected Mayors instead of this Council malarkey.
I only hope Boris continues the one brilliant thing about Ken - the Mayor is the chief advocate and chief administrator for his or her city. He's not elected to lightly preside - he's elected to lead.
tayto said...
Absolutely correct. The BBC appears to be observing a complete news black-out on today’s vote.
I really don’t know why they bother as Lord Robinson of Islington delivered a piece last night which gave me the distinct impression that people of all political persuasions and backgrounds throughout the country have made their minds up on one issue –
Gordon = loser.
Ken will win
The BBC may be careful about mentioned the eletction -- however they have preceeded just about every mention of it on the news with the "Bank of England say the Credit Crunch is over" story. (Noone else seems to agree).
Presumably to try to claw back some credibility for Browns Labour party.
I predict that Ken's speech will be very bitter - it's the first time he's been chucked - and along the lines of the Kinnock speech 'don't be old, don't be ill etc'
.
"Gordon is in denial," said a former member of his Cabinet. "It's very worrying."
Ken will bow out with grace.
The GLA building will have its reichstag reprise.
Then Red Ken will lash out against all an sundry.....As the evidence having been drowned will now be crisped.
Tube unions will make outrageous demands and go on strike.
MCB et al will declare election an affront to muslim dignity and rigged against them and will declare jihad against Boris and all infidels.
Ian Blair will resign...please, pretty please.
Ipsos will do as Guido suggests with added caveat that they were paid by strange man with staring eyes and penchant for picking nose, in cash, to fiddle polls.
Bollocks, YouGov are going to look like idiots, even if BloJo wins.
Their 11 point leads were clearly faked.
There is only one former member of Gordon's cabinet. Here are some clues. (1) He is well-known to Guido. (2) He is well-known to the police. (3) He is busy clearing his name. (4) He is a c*nt.
according to the rough poll at www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-mayor/
The race is between Boris and Brian, not Boris and Ken!
Hmmm, if only, too wonderful to imagine...
Don't underestimate the sack loads of Ken postal votes. A friend of mine got to his local (Southwark) polling station having recently moved and found his application had mysteriously been lost.
(1) Brilliant posts above.
(2) Hain (the clue by Anonymous @ 3.57 wasn't very good though since they are all c*nts.)
(3)http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/london/7377724.stm
(4) despite (3) and last-minute attempts by the msn to smear Boris the champagne corks are half-way out by their own volition.
Sorry folks, my corks have taken the pulse of the nation and I can hardly restrain them. I'll just have to let them go *POP*. Here's to Boris and long may he make London a City of which we can be proud. All hail the BoJo.
What with all the vote rigging going on recently and Ken's recent religious affiliations I would not be surprised if he won.
Ken will get in; he's been clever in getting the fake postal votes registered in Tory boroughs, but they'll still all have their X against his name.
yougov always go over the top, always.
look, anyone who believes polls is a spastic.
polls are a propaganda tool used to influence public opinion. It's no fucking good pumping high or low numbers out at the last minute. people will either turn and back the under dog or not even bother if they think there is a clear winner.
forget polls, politics is all about policy. the votes will follow the best package of policies.
note to ashcroft: take your marginals computer software and stick it up your arse you tax evading cunt.
you are dragging the conservative party down ashcroft, you fucking spastic. you are a complete liability. so either cough up the tax you are wilfully seeking to evade or fuck off out of it. cretin.
If Livingsporn loses, look out for him on HIGNFY and other such media appearances to bump up his income. God help us.
The question Ipsos/MORI asked was a bad example of "framing" and I'd be astounded if they weren't over-estimating Ken's support.
Where I live there wasn't even a Labour teller - they seem to have given up, and it's within a short walk of their constituency HQ.
Nay-sayers the lot of you. Boris is on course to win despite reports of vote-rigging. Livingspawofthedevil is history.
I think we might find that some of Ken's "friends" will be ensuring a high turn out from certain sections of the "community" which have a vested interested in a Livinghell victory.
nice graphics guido .
i was in the close call camp namely due to postal votes its just so open to fraud .
but i think its boris at least on ballot box votes rather than postal
Some Newsnight twat mentioned the pollsters dilemma using the term of 'egg-on-face'...
thick shit thieves said:
Once again no one in their right mind gives a flying fuck what you think because you sound a mad cunt. Nurse, lethal injection administered right up his craggy old arse please. Thank you.
spastic-parrot,
you do realize your obsession with me is a sign of your own mental illness, don't you?
Yes I do TAT shat. I fucking love it that it has manifested itself into slagging you off, what a great mental illness i have. Nurse, cunts ready for her nappy change now, thank you.
the bitch strikes again. well done, another prime example of what a bunch of bitter cunts new labour supporters are.
more votes down the drain.
try not to be such a bad loser spazinator.
show some class.
oh and though you personally attack me, you haven't actually directly challenged the contents of any of my posts.
all you have managed to do is expose yourself as an intellectual cripple aswell as a complete cunt.
well done zanulab zombie. by blowing your own head off you are saving me a job.
you fucking spastic.
Fuck me TAT shat, from your last inane comments you would think I was getting to you. Now fuck off you daft old tart spouting you're bollocks.
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