ICM Whisper Number Puts By-Election Closer Than Thought
An ICM poll for the Mail on Sunday tomorrow will put it neck and neck in Crewe & Nantwich, with the Tories on 43% to Labour's 39% and the LibDems trailing far behind on 16%. Believe it or not Guido has backed Labour on Betfair on the back of this, their 3.5 price seemed a bit rich given the narrow 4% difference.
What will have the mobile phone ricocheting around No. 10 is the startling finding that Labour voters would rather have Cameron than Brown as PM. Gordon is dead man ranting.
57 comments:
Still plenty of time to shove the Ramblin' Red Rose McBogey into a Prius and whack it at 55mph all the way up to Crewe & Nantwich.
That should put a few nautical Jonah mile between Timpon and Dunnepotism.
Agree Guido - this one's gonna be close - especially when the Lib Dem voters realise its a "straight choice" between blue and red...
"Gordon is dead man ranting."
Lol...Priceless!
cancel the bet Guido.. all that Margaux you could have bought....
Gordon's not dead yet: not over til the fat lady and all that. Labour are obviously fighting dirty and more power to the "toff" elbow in kicking them out.
dead man ranting
the beautiful simplicity of the phrase....even snotty boilpee couldn't disagree with that.
Those ICM figures were heavily massaged down for this byelection. ICM found that in a general election the voting intentions would be 49% for the Tories and 33%for Labour. A massive swing to the Tories which would lead to a landslide victory for them.
BTW Another poll in tomorrow's Observer says that most voters think Brown has been a disaster as Prime Minister.
Brown is a dead duck, a busted flush, dead man walking, a dead parrot.
Gordon may be a 'dead man ranting'
Blair may be a charlatan on the make ...
... When does Peter Hitchens get paid his dues ?
10 years this man has been trying dutifuly to tell us what is being revealed as 'news' by smart-arses today.
Someone once told me that the purpose of opinion polls is not to gauge public opinion, but to influence it.
Here's hoping it works!
"Guido has backed Labour on Betfair "
Betting guru Mike Smithson is backing the tories, no doubt he'll be taking your money.
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/05/10/icm-poll-has-tories-4-ahead-in-crewe-nantwich/#comment-662631
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/05/10/icm-poll-has-tories-4-ahead-in-crewe-nantwich/#comment-662647
Guido - what's your bet worth once the snot-goblin Jonah visits Crewe 'n Nantwich, eh ?
Bad call this time !
Anonymous at 1.:06 pm.
This Prius wouldn't go va va voom if you put 40,000 volts up it!
***PRIVATE MESSAGE***
Dear Paul,
You're doing a grand job and you're a personal hero of mine.
EMPLOY MORE PEOPLE !
You must be working like a dog and it AIN'T healthy.
Look after you and your family.
Best wishes,
Kevin Peat
Electro-Kevin
will the negative campaigning dent this tiny lead?
www.torybear.blogspot.com
The detailed ICM figures in the Mail don't make it look close at all. But the Conservatives need to be careful not to have peaked too early.
Moustachioed top Tory Roger Helmer is another MEP filling his boots. He has set himself up as a champion for openness and transparency in Brussels. But in an unguarded moment he bragged to our girl of his plans to exploit the crazy expenses system for thousands more—by tweaking the way his home address is listed.
The idea is to make his home in Ashby Magna, Leicestershire, appear at least 1,000 kilometres from Strasbourg—which under crazy Euro allowance rules will net him an extra £268 every time he flies there—£3,216 a year.
At present the distance is calculated from his postal town Lutterworth, which makes it 996km.
Over a blowout meal of scallops and red wine Helmer said: "From Ashby Magna I make it 1,001km.
"If Brussels agrees with me I'll say, ‘OK, backdate it!'"
I do hope you'll be calling for this man's head Guido?
3.5 is a rubbish price seeing that all the polls, including this one, put the Tories a long way ahead. 4% isn't that close and even that is only after ICM's enormous fudge factor to get the result to sound reasonable (by adding an arbitary proportion of Labour don't knows to its projected vote).
Add to this, ICM's long history of Labour bias (as with other telephone polls) and I think you may treat your money as lost.
Now look you silly sods – you’re talking bollocks.
The Beloved and Supreme Leader, like his predecessor, is able to influence reality.
That + the labours of his pointless-pen-pushing-pansies will make resistance useless.
It will be a sweeping victory for he with the weird jaw-dropping-tongue-twirling tic.
John Prescott is now the face of Marks and Spencer trifles and buckets...wonder how many times people asked for Prezza to be sacked when he was going round thumping people on the streets
HH
If you want to read some Sunday morning c**p, this is about the 'Royal' wedding next Saturday of Phillips and Kelly. Cut price deals from suppliers, a £1/2m deal with Hello and other deals, but lavish when compared to the daily lives of UK citizens currently being endured under the Snotgobbler's reign.
Pass the sickbag Alice.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/femail/article.html?in_article_id=565192&in_page_id=1879
Counting chickens and votes? get out there and start harassing (sorry canvassing) the voters.
I am sure Timpson has been working hard on the site for at last a year. The media think its all on the nod for a rapid bit of sport. However, Timpson has been patiently doing the business letting people know who he is, and dropping information. it will still be close, but I suspect there are many Labourites who will stay home: thing is, the Cameroons cannot let this one go. They need to ask "Where is McBroon?" get the word ging that he is staying away, bottler etc and then the character of the man wil show up, as if it hasnt already.
When your foot is on the guys throat, dont take it off to pick your nails and look pretty! Snot gobbler indeed!
Is it me or is Gordon more and more using the Daily Telegraph as the 'exclusive' channel for his outpourings of wisdom? Is the Telegraph the only paper now mad enough to print them / give him a hearing?
Its really strange the way he also semes to be slipping into some distorted alternative political reality as his spin doctors seek to 'take control of the agenda' when they havent really a clue on what the Agenda is anymore.
So today folks it's Scottish Independence where:-
He " will do whatever necessary" to prevent it - so sod off you Scots, no matter what you vote for its pointless as Gordon says "No" (for the next 12 to 18 months anyway)
He accused the SNP of a "transparent attempt to manipulate the political system for purely partisan political purposes". I assume that means by getting elected on a Nationalist manifesto, forming a Government and then asking the people what they want.
Well I mean, don't the Nats know how real politics is done - in London, behind closed doors and with 'advice' from your biggest donors whose commercial interests need to be considered first?
Oh and Bendy Wendy is a marvellous leader of Labour in Scotland who has his complete confidence and anyway she never really said what she said (three times) on camera so that's alright too.
Oh and by the way, a English parliament is out of the question too....so you lot just sit down as well and keep paying the bills.
Dont worry Gordon knows whats best and will make sure we all get it whether we want it or not.
So what will he do if Scotland votes 'yes'? Send in the Army? Whoops, sorry...everyone's out at the moment. Bomb Holyrood? Not likely as the RAF would probably miss and, given what they spent first time, the costs of the rebuild would bankrupt everyone.
All this is rather strange. Perhaps he's trying to play for votes in 'middle England' but he seems to have a very strange idea of what they may be interested in. Given Labour's current position he might also be better try to get some socialists to vote for him.... but perhaps that's a lost cause
Of course it may just be displacement activity. Don't talk about the elephant in the corner (or perhaps now the elephants), the Polls, Cherie's book, Election Results, the Great Leader 'helping with advice' from behind the scenes. No, no elephants. They dont exist. They arent real. Just focus on the real issues - Scottish Independece. Yes, that's the key. That will win the general election for us. We must stop it you know. Concentrate. Concentrate.
Nice little anecdote - Tamsin Dunwoody is approached by elderly voter - " I thought your mother was a wonderful woman" says voter smiling. Cue for smiles and photo op etc etc.
Afterwards as media circus and labour bandwagon moves away - " I shall be voting Conservative or UKIP" confesses voter, "Definitely NOT Labour!"
And that is the problem for Brown and Labour. Gwyneth Dunwoody had a large personal support base and I'm not sure that her daughter will inherit it.
The 10p Tax fiasco is seriously damaging Labour particularly amongst their core vote in the Crewe part of the constituency which tends to support Labour whilst Nantwich tends towards Conservative.
It's not a foregone conclusion that Timpson will take the seat but the omens look good and pretty dire for Labour. If they can lose Crewe and Nantwich there are a lot of Labour seats held on smaller majorities than here - particularly in the nearby Midlands - which suddenly become at risk and the loss of this seat will have seismic effects on Brown's leadership
Ho ho Lord Levy says on Andrew Marr Show that it was 'iconceivable' that Brown didn't know what was going on re cash for honours.
@ electro-kevin (12.48am):
I must agree with you, mate. Mr Fawkes must be working like a dog and although I also greatly appreciate his efforts, it can't be easy to balance with the demands of family life.
Guido, please listen to e-k and give yourself some quality time with your family. You deserve it.
levy says brown knew about the loans. therefore he has mislead parliament, is a corrupt liar and must resign. bollox of brown you are a gay cunt!!!
Anon @ 8.33am:
Once again, Gordon proves that he just doesn't get it. Displaying the Cross of St George over Downing Street isn't enough to placate the English. More and more of us want our OWN Parliament, not a crappy 'regional disassembly'- and if that means the end of the UK then so be it. Let's consign it to the dustbin of History.
As for Scotland, it's nice to seem Mr Salmond and the SNP doing so well. If this continues then the dissolution of the UK- and therefore a Parliament for England- is only a matter of time.
Gordon and his policy wonks have clearly underestimated the depth of English feeling. Therefore he may well be the last PM of the UK.
Not a bad thing tbh.
You could have at least given the money to charity Guido!
Anon at 10:03 am
Too bloody right. The sooner we English get back to being English, the sooner we can get on with our raison d'etre of annexing other countries.
Just a message to Boris and co. Have seen lots of photo ops with ethnic minorities. Be careful. The white suburbs voted you in. They are your new bosses. They expect things to be done in their favour. Remember those who vote you in, vote you out if you don't please them...Think about it. If the Tories fail to show true leadership the BNP wait in the wings with an oncoming economic crash to aid them...wake up. Remember who your real bosses are.
It's like watching a car crash in slow motion - as Brown goes slowly down into political oblivion with a desperate and frantic party trying to break loose but appear to still be hanging on to him.
You could almost pity him or them( Nah - it's payback time for all those years of hubris. Just - enjoy)
This simple Blog by Postman Patel says it all.
Gormless Gordon
Alas Brown has made us the laughing stock of the world in less than 10 months. Where we had clout, now we have non. Not only have lost our ability to walk tall in the corridors of power, our ability to trade with the rest of the world has been seriously depleted. Postman Patel's picture is worth a thousand words.
`Another thing is women,' said Harlow, `there's thousands of 'em nowadays doin' work wot oughter be done by men.'
`In my opinion ther's too much of this 'ere eddication, nowadays,' remarked old Linden. `Wot the 'ell's the good of eddication to the likes of us?'
`None whatever,' said Crass, `it just puts foolish idears into people's 'eds and makes 'em too lazy to work.'
Barrington, who took no part in the conversation, still sat silently smoking. Owen was listening to this pitiable farrago with feelings of contempt and wonder. Were they all hopelessly stupid? Had their intelligence never developed beyond the childhood stage? Or was he mad himself?
Labour government in melt down. Bloody marvellous! Keep the good work up Gordon. Hope you can carry on as long as possible. God bless you!
"Gordon is dead man ranting"
Maybe it could be a mad man lying?
Today's Scottish papers are not much better. As a a senior Labour source says "People have been lied to."
Who? is the question.
Anonymous said...
@ electro-kevin (12.48am):
"I must agree with you, mate. Mr Fawkes must be working like a dog and although I also greatly appreciate his efforts, it can't be easy to balance with the demands of family life."
Bollocks. Guido has plenty quality of life. WTF is anon and electro-Kevin bleeding going on about. I dont think he is exactly on minimum wage working a 50 hour week now, is he? Guido, more postings up please, stop slacking there is plenty more work to be done.
David Miliband on BBC Politics Show - "Wendy [Alexander] has her job and Gordon has his and essentially they're both saying the same thing on the referendum on Scottish Independence". Wrong mate on both counts neither are actually saying the same thing and neither of them are going to have a job for much longer.
P.S. If as you say people like the Labour policies why aren't you higher up in the polls ? Perhaps you should ask Gordon as you also said that the picture of him painted by Prescott is complete nonsense and he's all sweetness and light with you. Watch out ! Duck ! Incoming ! Another Nokia hits the wall!
8:24 AM
Funny thing this co-ordinated pincer movement on Brown by his erstwhile shipmates - in the good old days Cherie and Prescott never interracted at all. I heard she wouldn't let him in the house...used to chuck the bones of fatally mauled cabinet Ministers out to him in the back garden...after she'd boiled them up for soupstock, that is.
PS: Love how Tony chooses the same moment to remember he's a womble sorry Labour party member and give the expiring cunts his full, unadulterated and empathetically sincere backing. Whatever that's worth. Fucking priceless!
ConHome - Frank Field threatens Brown with no confidence
Yes, Guido dear boy, keep up the pressure. It's a joy for us lepidopterists to watch the final stages of the inevitable and genetically pre-programmed metamorphosis of Zanu Liebore.
1. Egg stage: Kinnock
2. Caterpillar: Smith
3. Pupa: Blair
4. Imago -- a furry and lumbering moth with deformed mouthparts -- ignited by the candle-flame of public perception (or squashed on the front number-plate of a revived Tory party, take your pick): Brown.
Cyber nat [12.07]
Love the Video!
11 days to polling = 11 days during which there are likely to be:-
3 Gordon Brown dithers;
7 press/TV pictures of GB looking a complete knobhead;
ditto of Tamsin Dunwoody;
3 junior ministers to appear in press or on TV to say 'we're stuffed';
2 more PMQs where Brown is slaughtered by Cameron and further demonstrates his congenital lack of charm and humour;
notwithstanding unsubtle & puerile NuLab Tory Candidate Application faux pas, Crewe & Nantwich electorate accept that Timpson neither has two heads nor does he eat babies;
4 more appearances of GB telling us that he's listening and leading but clearly doing neither;
men in white coats come to take GB away (this may actually be the wild card which takes a few weeks longer).
In the meantime 7 appearances of Cameron who is charming, in control and Prime Ministerial.
Crewe and Nantwich; safe Labour seat? Really?
Only a 4% difference if we adjust the figures to assume traditional Labour voters will turn out and not stay at home. So 4% minimum, all going well with Labours turnout.
I think the figure is way understated. Had a customer in yesterday from Nantwich and he is staunch, red, cunt of the month Labour to the core, and he intends to not vote because Tamsin is a twat and he resents her being brought in.
On a further note and thought; it shows just how bad things are when the Labour party and Brown may be saved by winning a by-election in a safe Labour seat. It would be almost unthinkable a few weeks ago for this seat to even be worth contesting!
What does that say about marginals all over the country?
I'd have thought the last things the tories would want is to crush Labour in Crewe and Nantwich, so triggering getting Gordon losing is job as leader and Labour putting someone in charge who might just rescue them from complete oblivion at the next election..Far better for the tories for Gordon Brown to still be in charge at the next election??
Gordon Brown will be gone in 17 months.
There's a one eyed cunt called Gordon,
Who gets lost in Inspector Morse,
He ran away to Devon,
Smothering his pastie in Worcester Source.
"Shouldn't he be in Crewe?" they cry,
"Rallying the locals of course!"
But the week that saw his party die,
He was as silent as his wooden horse.
Foreign Secretary David Miliband has denied claims that Gordon Brown is "annoying and prickly",
They must take the general public as idiots. Labour spinning these days is so shit. Do they think we are really gone to believe that one. Don’t think Gordon’s PR advisers will be putting on their Cvs that they worked for him.
For years Labour have been doing things on the sly, lying to us and manipulating the truth. We don’t trust you guys anymore. Game over for you chaps soon, then you will see what the real world is like
So has Goron gone to watch United today?
Is it the Ides of March?
Now Lord Cashpoint has put the knife in up to the hilt, joining Old Slotgob and Lard arse Prescott in carving up the Bogeyman. I wish I was there! 'He don't like it up im'
On second thoughts...
But aren't you pissing your money away when Mike Smithson thinks the Tories are '90% sure of winning' this particular by-election ??
My old grandma (she's been dead for 40 years) visited me in a dream last night and told me that the talk on the other side is that Brown will commit hara-kiri within the next 28 days. Being one of them there 10p losers it would give me great pleasure to assist the chap in any way that I can.
Biggest threat to New Labour right now is Labour voters.The most vitriolic phone calls and e-mails to Radio 5 Live's phone-ins now about the latest NuLab "Fuck up of the day" are from former life-long Labour voters feeling betrayed by the corrupt and spineless trough-snouters currently in power.The more the piece of shit at number 10 suffers,the more stupid he looks,the lower into the mud what's left of his reputation slides into the mud the better I like it.I'm not alone in being a died-in-the-wool Labourite,lifelong Union activist,class-warrior e.t.c. who'll tactically vote for anyone at the next election to get the shits out.tories might not like Gordo,Labourites hate the bastard and most of the rest as well.
Dennis!! Swoon...
Bunty, my angel!
I have been recuperating at the Priory. My infatuation with that jezebel Blears exacted a heavy psychological toll, but my therapist tells me I am as normal as I'm ever going to be -- a form of words which I did not take to be especially flattering. Nevertheless, it bodes well for the future.
Anyone else noticed little comments "slipping out" in the media regarding our Gord's sexuality? Too much for the mainstream when blogosphere hysteria was at it's peak a while back but in the current climate there are those getting bolder.I suspect the public could handle an openly gay PM,but not a lying hypocritical one,or rather another lying ,hypocritical one.
That Woman! I will never forgive her for toying with your affections, Dennis. Ms Blears is of the worst kind. Her shame is such that she has gone to ground lately..or perhaps she has been strapped to the trolley...
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