EXCLUSIVE : The Numbers Are In
The Myth of the "Quality Loan Book"
Alistair Darling and Gordon Brown chant the same mantra, the government's investment is backed by the assets of the bank, "a high quality loan book", which they claim has been verified by the FSA - as if the FSA employs surveyors and has the competence to take a view. Anecdotaly this untruth was unraveling, Anatole Kaletsky said this week that it was a delusion to believe that "Northern Rock had a “sound book of assets” when it was the country's biggest lender of mortgages worth more than the houses on which they are secured." Guido now has the hard numbers to prove it:
These figures were compiled yesterday and are taken from analysis of the Courts Service, Possession Claims Online Database. Guido has obtained the list of 690 individual Northern Rock Possession Claims, averaging some 40 every working day. Of all mortgage lenders Northern Rock has the absolute highest rate of possession claims. Hardly evidence of a sound loan book...UPDATE : As of midnight last night Northern Rock has withdrawn from offering 125% mortgages.
UPDATE : In the comments a co-conspirator has made an effort to normalise the results by market share using market leader HBOS against Northern Rock:
HBOS has 20.4% of the market, with 520 reposessions in Feb = 25 repos per 1% of marketHat-tip : HousePriceCrash.co.uk via LabRat
Northern Rock has 7.2% of the market, with 690 reposessions in Feb = 95 repos per 1% of the market.
In short, Northern Rock repossesses almost 4 houses to every one repossesed by HBOS, when market share is factored into the equation.
61 comments:
the r ock is a shithouse full of rubbish mortgages....... come out gordon.... you are an economic moron and a snotgobbling iron.... fuck off you cunt
Interesting graph. The underlying data were included in a post at "Housepricecrash.co.uk" at 6:33pm; the poster claims to have got hold of the data him/herself. Of course you may have got the data independently (or of course you may be the HPC poster) but, if not, it would be good policy to acknowledge your source.
hey guido why was your petition "just go now." rejected with links to criminal investigation?
what do you know.. .. ?
Am happy to acknowledge that the data it was provided by someone who may or may not be associated with HousePriceCrash.co.uk. who used the name "LabRat". Not sure that they wanted credit.
Yep, and you have to remember that NR is only the 5th largest lender, so this amplifies the ratio beause other lenders have a lot more propery on there books but less defaulting!
Yes, I agree with Anon 1236, these nos. should be divided by '% market share' to produce a 'normalised' repossession rate.
Will do further crunching later. Raw data with absolute figures for the 5 lenders with the highest number of possessions claims reproduced here.
Suspect that when normalised for market share it will reflect even worse on the Crock.
G'night.
More on the Eurotrough:
As a member of the European Parliament's Budget Control Committee I was this morning permitted to read a copy of Internal Audit Report 06/02 on the parliamentary assistance allowance paid to MEPs for the employment of their staff.
I write to request that you immediately provide the Director-General of OLAF with a copy of this report.OLAF was established to uphold the principle that the European Institutions have a duty to guarantee, with regard to the taxpayer, the best use of their money and in particular to fight as effectively as possible against fraud and any other illegal activity harmful to the financial interests of the Community.
In my view the findings of the Parliament's internal auditors most definitely fall within OLAF's terms of reference. They are so serious that it should be assumed that criminal proceedings may follow. I believe that the parliamentary authorities have a duty immediately to open the entire matter to independent scutiny by those experienced in judging what is and what is not fraudulent activity.
In view of the seriousness of this matter I request that receipt of this letter be acknowledged.
Yours sincerely
Chris Davies MEP
Bruno Waterfield @ The Telegraph tells the story.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/foreign/brunowaterfield/feb08/mepfraud.htm
Guido
If you're going to going to start taking figures from HPC, be sure to check them first. Most of them sold their houses in preperation for a crash in 2003. Statistics and trends are not generally their strong point.
interesting guido
it would also be interesting to know who and when started the trend of the 125% mortgage , as this is now looking like the point when the housing market should have levelled off .
far be it for me to suggest that the market may have been artificially boosted by using these products or that the tripartate admisistration was only too keen to allow the public to make a ruined arse of them selves for the purpose of the then chancellors propserity figures.
i think repos have always had base default level but it would be nice to relate take off of curve with rocks (and few others) mortgage tools .
also any (honest) meps that read please get that expenses report to the net asap , 100 million in 2 years by 137 meps , and someone posted that kinnock sacked the whistle blower when she said it was out of hand .socialist crap been done again etc etc
euro porkstering on a scale that makes conway look like a lamb . i think so .
in addition
on roger helmers MEP site it gives a bit of an idea it seems there are 669 MEPs whilst some i assume are straight .
being as lib dem MEP chris davis presents us with a sample of £100 million fiddles by 137 MEPs multiply that by 5 and you get £500 million in two years potential.
ok a bit OTT but next time clegg or for that matter ken clarke spouts off about europe let alone the residing hereditary socialists
just how much of what we give them has gone on this fraud !!
also monoline insurances (another insurance derivatives tool) looks like hitting the headlines , put the whole economy on no6 red please! fuck me .
A bird of little brain - but cannot understand how, if the Rock has sold 40 billion of mortgages to Granite it can have anything like 25 billion left to cover the Bank of Englands advances and commitments? Or has it been paid in promissory notes by Grantite, in which case you can see why Darling has no intention of nationalisng Granite! And if it had sold 65 billion in mortgages, presumably the better grade stuff went to Granite. Or am I missing something?
sorry to overblog
but it appears we have somthing else that was not told there is an off shore jersey based subsiduary that is not granite , but is northern rock and takes deposites , re hansard 8pm 21 feb exchange with yvette and osbourne.
yvette did not answer it .
one mp has spoke of granite subsiduaries plural , what the hell is going on!!
RDS, history will undoubtedly show that Lord the Cunt Windbag to have been the most venal and shameless of all socialist champagne quaffers, indeed rivalling the unabashed thieves of public property and rights as the Ceaucescus, Stalin, Quadafi, Mugabe, Bokassa, and sundry other African despots.
I go too far I hear you say? Consider that this worthless turd has put himself forward in the full flow of verbosity as a champion of the people, the underdogs, their saviour. This fucking idle self-opinionated waste of oxygen has only ever had one aim - self-aggrandisement and money - loads o' money He is so convinced of his entitlement to riches and honours that not the slightest qualm ruffles the serenity of that ugly ginger visage, as he inhales more of the public treasure, and shits in the face of his countrymen. He may not have murdered like the despots, but he has done worse in many ways; if you are unfortunate enough to have started your miserable existence in the Central African Republic, you will have quickly realised, that no one speaks for you, and you can expect little or nothing from life. This pool of vomit has trashed the promises made to the poor brothers of his revolution who were born into to a country of which they had a right to expect better, shat in their faces, and said "fuck off, who are you to question what I do - you're fired. If you doubt me check with that twat I'm married to, she'll tell you it's not against the rules".
Oh yes, be in no doubt that the noble Lord Kinnock is about the most vile piece of shit to have ever crawled upon the face of the earth - no redeeming feature.
Talk about hubris, the worthless fucking cunt.
I posted last years figures a couple of days ago so this has been going on a while add Granite into the mix and we have a huge millstone round Darlings sweaty neck.
How snotty and his mates must hate the internet and Guido in particular. everything they do and everything they utter checked and posted and unlike the dead tree drones not open to "influence".
Looks like the repo data was scraped off this handy dandy online diary of court claims:
https://www.possessionclaim.gov.uk/pcol/
The Lords backed down, didn't want a late night I suppose, and that Gorbals oik gave approval.
So NR is now officially owned by the gov't (as is anyone else they want to take over as well).
Will they pay me interest on my little piece I wonder?
red despot spotter,
have a guess. Hint, the first one to do so was also the first one to end up in a real mess.
Good journalism Guido. Shows up the MSM for the idle buggers they are.
Apparently, I've just been made to buy a share in this bank, but will not be allowed to know what's going on there.
Tally me banana republic
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJ_qK4g6ntM&eurl=http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com
Bird and Fortune's take on Government rewarding the greed and stupidity of bankers contrasting to Brown's rewarding the ingenuity of the markets.
In Northern Rock's case their ingenuity was to create a banker's mortgage pyramid scheme.
Northern Rock's charity status needs some digging. This is a rats nest of fiddles. No wonder Gordon has his own charities.
What does this say about resent changes to the Charity Commissions rules re public good and private schools if businesses have been able to get away with this kind of thing.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/02/22/ncharity122.xml
Shouldn't the police be involved by now?
In the parasitic internal statelet that is the BBC, there’s no stopping these civil libertarians.
On last night’s Jock Neil Show, blubber mountain Diane Rentagob avowed that sixty million murders in China was a small price to pay for the paedophile Chairman Mao Tse Tung’s great reforms; suppose it takes one bloated fascist to recognise the genius of another.
Dame Michael Portillo, famous for his televised dinner parties and his own political cowardice, hissed that people suggesting we exit the pan-European dictatorship should “grow up” and Jock himself smirked that most people in Britain didn’t give a fuck about CIA rendition-torture flights and were quite happy to have 250 alleged bad wogs held indefinitely in Uncle Sam’s Cuba waterboarding facility, without charge and without trial, tortured maybe, but in a very real sense, in the name of democracy.
With political commentators such as this trio, we should count our blessings; it won’t take long.
Will we all get nice embossed share certificates?
Anon 12.55pm. Get your facts right!
With regards to the House Price Crash site, how do you know "Most of them sold their houses in preperation for a crash in 2003?"
HPC contains a complete cross section of society. They maintain a healthy cynicism of politicians, and distaste for the current Nu Labour idiots.
I think you have been watching too many videos of Bruno Powroznik on You Tube. Either that or you are Bruno. Dickhead.
Let me explain... Bwuno is a lisping idiot who lives in a run down Luton bedsit. He has an obsession with STR's, people who sale to rent. For a taste of this moron view this link...
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=TiuCUDatjEc
What is it with 21st century lefties and encouraging t'workers to take on unfeasibly large debts ? Even the Guardian was puffing 125% mortgages as recently as last month.
Cracking stuff, Guido. If Northern Rock really is the backbone of the North-East, a property slump could hit them worse than other mortgage lenders.
Lettersfromatory, the only problem with your scenario is that in order to preserve Brown's votes, the taxpayer will be footing the bill. Brown has, as one guy put it last night, engineered the biggest bank robbery in history to support his own vote pool. Nice work if you can get it. No wonder he didn't bother to call an election. He doesn't need to. The whole damn country is a rotten borough.
Anon @ 8.50
Utter bollocks, you don't have a cross section of society, as anyone who displays less than an uber-bearish sentiment on house prices subject gets banned. The level of censorship on that forum is huge.
The only cross section you have is of Rabid BNP members, Goldbug survivalists, and poor naive FTB's that have lost thousands by beleiving your self-intereted bile.
Particularly odd is your intelectual leader, that oddball jonathan chap who has been popping up on telly of late, he is supposed to be some kind of 'qualified' financial advisor.
It amazes me the media give him any credence at all, As he sold his house to rent 5 years ago and has been advising others to do the same. It has cost many of them tens of thousands.
But I digress, sorry guido. That Darling chap, he's a right daft cunt eh?
”far be it for me to suggest that the market may have been artificially boosted by using these products or that the tripartite administration was only too keen to allow the public to make a ruined arse of them selves for the purpose of the then chancellors prosperity figures”
Don't forget the deliberate Government assistance of tax relief for mortgage interest paid (as a "business expense") given to property speculating Buy-to-Letters to artificially boost the market, numbers of which during 2005, 2006 and early 2007 became an avalanche and kept the prices whacking up . First Time Buyers did not get tax relief and could not compete and so became rent-slaves for Labour’s property speculators.
All at the same time that Blair and Brown were publicly wringing their hands about the "underprivileged", the "socially-excluded", "social justice" etc. The sickening hypocrites.
The the anon who claimed that HPC bloggers all sold their houses in 2003 to cash in on a fall; this is utter nonsense. Are you an estate agent or Anne Ashworth ? The vast majority of HPC bloggers are independent thinking FTBs who refuse to be conned by the massive amount of vested interests pushed out in the press & TV over the last 5-10 years, brainwashing the masses that property is a one way bet. I'm guessing there is a significantly higher percentage of journos and TV types with buy-to-let "property portfolios", than sold-to-rents on HPC.
Many of the HPC bloggers are much more fluent in finance than the "experts" that are wheeled out in the media to perpetuate the housing con.
this is the mother of all fuck ups.
we just paid a hundred billion pounds and someone else got the cream. rewind... what the fuck is going on here? brown and darling are giving the shop away. who is going to pull the plug on this pair of wankers?
we will have to get to the bottom of this latest brown voodoo spell of confusion.
brown's suspiciously bad deal making skills and his junkie like addiction to borrowing were partly responsible for the economic problems we are facing.
what a fucking useless bastard.
what a cunt.
No wonder the Grubs couldn't afford to let the Wreck go into administration - I guess they had to keep control of all those skeletons in the cubboard since it's starting to look more and more as though the Wreck's main function was as a personal finance vehicle for New Labour.
More a conspiratorial over long deliberately created boom followed by a long protracted if not everlasting bust.
What makes it worse, is that no one in government can say they were not warned, or have a credible excuse.
We can't blame America or Americans because we are as much to blame as them. Many in the states are claiming that it is indeed the British banks as much as the American ones that have caused this problem. Which is of course perfectly true.
We all should have know better, and it is clear to me our leading politicians did.
So why has it happened?
I cant be bothered to explain it all again. If you were not listening when I did, then quite frankly you deserve to rot in hell.
If you did pay attention. Then you will be looking fairly good right now, and therefore should stop moaning.
You CAN make as much money in bad times as good, often more if you understand business and are in the know. The banks certainly do and are, which is why they love booms and busts so much.
We rely on our government and our media to stop us doing what is not in our interests. Believing what our politicians and THEIR media propagate to us, especially the BBC, is possibly the biggest mistake a person can make in their entire lives.
Instead of our own common sense.
Which, as far as politicians and their mates in the banking and media worlds, is thankfully never common.
Which is why only the very few ever get truly wealthy doing almost jack shit. While the vast majority work very hard indeed all their lives, and get nowhere far.
Still looking on the bright side.
We are all going to end up dead one day anyhow. So if you did have a good time spending like a Lord while thinking the good times will never end. Then at least you had a good time, which is more then most people in the world ever do.
Atlas shrugged and then had an extra big one, just for luck.
So Nortern Rock were borrowing money in volatile markets where others were relying on retail depositors. There business model is astonishingly contrasting with others in the sector. Then they offered irresposible loans to our own sub prime market having tempted the fringe in with the unsustainable business model they ran in the first place .
Now we own this mess? This is getting worse and worse and I love all that guff about how popular they were. WERE until they got caught.
( Your point on the FSA is sooooo true )
Sorry Stan, but after due consideration have got to go along with the Jock on this one.
If you accept that the war is legit,which is a whole 'nother argument that doesn't need thrashing out here, then the Geneva Convention's pretty specific about the rights these guys have. GC111 Article 4.1.2 reads not a lot. The Yanks have chosen to lock them up somewhere outside their own legal jurisdiction. Can't blame them. If they brought them anywhere near the US the lawyers would march over a carpet of new-born babies in spike boots to defend their rights if their was a buck in it. Maybe they should have taken my preferred solution. Take them back to wherever they were picked up & let them go. Of course the people now running those places would just give them a very hard time & air tap-dancing lessons by the end of the week but shit happens. At least nobody's rights'd be compromised.
You see, I feel about it the same way I feel about whoever ran a key right round my car the other night. No doubt he's a troubled individual who needs counselling but if I catch him I'll kick his bollocks to a paste.
Re Lords Climbdown on NR:
Odd how 'transparency' never applies to Bean or his puppet's actions?
Anon 10.11am.
Come out Bruno, we know it is you. Stop being a Troll.
The only people that get banned from the HPC site are the malicious and continually abusive posters. There are Bears and Bulls with many different opinions.
Bruno is like a chameleon. He appears sane for a few posts then becomes completely manic. Avoid this nutter at all cost!
Dear Mr Just askin
Stanislav would be among the hundreds of millions who think the "war" is not legit, and has fuelled much of the secretive, illegal, misgovernance, fraud, theft and blackmail which we now suffer, but never mind that, eh.
Be grateful if you would just clear up who it is alright to torture. Is it just wogs and ragheads ? Or would you want someone to complain if they snatched you off your street and started in on you, Jack Straw & Co turning a blind eye ? Just so's we know.
love from stanislav
Dear Mr RDS
Yes His Grace Neil Kinnock and the rest of the Commissioners resigned after the whistle-blowing exposed their institutionalised corruption.
In the interests of the rest of us, and to meet our need for continuity in the shit-in-face-department, they reappointed themselves after 48 hours.
You are all getting over excited about 125% mortgages, they were no such thing, it was a sales come on line.
The Rock was in fact offering 100% mortgages with the opetion of an unsecured loan up to a maximum of £30,000, just like the ones you regularly see(saw) advertised.
Its still a total fuck up though isnt it?
I hear that it was the LibDem Lords who buggered off early last night and let the Govt get away with it.
And I also hear that the next financial institution to go belly up shortly will not be B&B but Alliance & Leicester.
Northern Rock now run from London as "Gordon Rock".
Brilliant Guido..
Saw your graph and I just couldn't believe it.
I rushed home to show Mrs Bill Quango the Northern Rock column.
It's exactly the colour she wants for
the downstairs cloakroom !
Quite right, jus askin, bollocks to a paste is the only way to go
Stanislav, a difficult question, but if pressed yes, wogs and ragheads seems a reasonable guideline in an imperfect world.
Vote Labour or we chuck you out of your house?
anon 12.47,
how would you describe yourself, in an imperfect world?
to thickothief
Perfect, aren't you?
I'm not bad.
care to answer the question, or not?
As someone who spent a year in the shithole that is NI. I concur with the plumber.
I fought to protect liberty, not to cower and meekly surrender it.
People are so fucking spineless it makes me weep.
You are all fucking cowards. (present company excepted :-))
Aha! I see you got there before me Mr F, I was going to suggest expressing the numbers as a rate per 1000 mortgages held or somesuch.
Don't forget one of the main reasons why lenders used to insist on a 20%-£30% deposit.
It was not just to reduce the possibility of negative equity.
It was to show that the borrower was a responsible citizen capable of saving money out of their present income. Remember also it was back in the days when you could not also fund your day to day expenses and luxuries using multiple credit cards. Or in many cases any type of other credit at all.
How the hell we are going to get ourselves out of this pit of damnation without a serious long term recession along with double figure inflation, and very sharp devaluation, is beyond me.
Perhaps Father Christmas can help?
But I here he does not really exist. This may come as a bit of a shock for some people, but I also here its Mummy and Daddy that actually but the stuff. However if Mummy and Daddy cant help then read on.
My advice is DON'T PANIC.
Stock up on food and basic essentials. Cut all types of excess expenditure, like heating, holidays, gifts, charity, clothing, alcohol, tobacco, petrol, basically anything that does not put food in the belly. This may be a great time to start that crash diet you always said you were going to go on.
Other things that may delay out and out starvation.
Take in lodgers,even Polish ones. Start keeping your own chickens or pigs. Grow your own fruit and veg in the front and back gardens.
Maybe if you have a half attractive wife that has not left you yet to go into business on her own, you could also consider pimping. The rates may be none to good, but with the amount of single divorced young men soon to be around, turnover could be brisk. You however can take up full time wanking as there will be sod all else to do and you don't want to overwork you only remaining asset.
However if you don't have a garden and the wife looks better in a sack, try crime. One thing this government must have show us by now surly, is that crime or in your face dishonesty, pays off big time. Even if your ex old boss no longer will.
Failing this you could always try the 'Welsh solution' but do try not to make a mess, someone has to clear it up.
Atlas shrugged and considered why the whole population of Whales don't try it? Therefore doing themselves and us all a massive favor.
I would imagine the main reason first time buyers needed 125% mortgages was to pay the stamp duty that the one eyed goat fucker has imposed on them. So if they can't get these mortgages, that will be another blow to first time buyers, and when they are finally defeated, the whole tottering edifice of our inflated housing market will come crashing down.
The resulting ruin will be a high price to pay to reveal the snotgobbling freak as the economically dyslexic moron we all know him to be. Will nobody rid us of this bogey munching fuck?
Can I remind you all that the genius behind the NR nationalisation is the same one who sold most of our gold reserves when gold prices were at an all time low. How lucky we are to have Mr McBean as our revered leader.
From these data:
http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/statistics
2006 figures:
Biggest mortgage lenders:
HBOS 20.4%(£220 billion)
Abbey 9.4%
LloydsTSB 8.8%
NW 8.3%
NR 7.2%
...
(GE Money) 1.1%
Those figures are a little out of date, but using them to normalise quido's figures, assuming the same average house price in each mortgage portfolio (which may not be true):
Let's compare the HBOS against NR.
HBOS has 20.4% of the market, with 520 reposessions in Feb.
= 25 repos per 1% of market
NR has 7.2% of the market, with 690 reposessions in Feb
= 95 repos per 1% of the market.
In short, NR repossesses almost 4 houses to every one repossesed by HBOS, when market share is factored into the equation.
Hmmm...
If I was Gordon Brown I would do exactly what he always planned on doing.
That is offering to rent the house to the mortgage non payer, and get the local council tax payer, thats you and me, to pay the rent. I believe the old name for this used to be Council Housing.
Thus if the fool does not take the offer, him and his family, if he still has one, have then made themselves intentionally homeless and can then book their place under one of our many fine bridges. A Hobsons choice, if ever there was one.
Then call it social housing or some other sweet sounding name, and claim its all Thatchers fault as usual. Then swiftly retire to the Bahamas, and leave it to Cameron and his so called nasty party.
( Which unfortunately means you and me again, though extra inflation tax and other types of more direct robbery. )
To sort out this perfectly gigantic mess, for the next twenty years or so.
It wont fool anyone now, with the possible exception of brainwashed fascists like Brownagree.
However many people have woefully short memories and repeatedly behave like absent minded death wish lemings with terminal cancer, if the BBC tells them too enough times.
As for the Labour Party, the poor working man and the many legal and illegal immigrants now inhabiting this dieing joke of a country, who cares?
Gordon Brown, Tony Blair and there British Establishment Broadcasting Corporation certainly never did. A fact that is now, clearly self apparent.
One good thing, and there is always good things if you look hard. The BBC will have to finally stop filling up its timetable, with "how to get rich quick in the property market" programs, eventually.
Then start doing their regular job of methodically hating the government once again.
Atlas shrugged and wondered. Why do we all have to go through this nightmare, all over again, things were going just great way back in 97?
Is B&B a subsidiary of the Bank of Scotland, or have I got the wrong end of the stick?
Attempting to normalise by 2006 figures is not correct. NR share has increase significantly since on the basis of new loans won. The most significant fact about the NR repossessions is that they are more likely to be from fraudsters in the inner city flats market. The point is that this lender had bad risk management on who got loans. Organised criminals are suspected of making a killing in this market leaving NR (sorry, the tax payers) to pick up pieces. repossesion here anyway are easy since the 'owners' have skipped the country with the dosh.
AH(C)
That can't be right, the PM tells us the Crock has a quality loan book.
A junior solicitor writes....
'Greenspam said...
Trying to understand GICs and SPVs in one day is going to be far too much for your financially illiterate commentariat.
I dont understand how cars work but I dont demand that we return to the horse and cart when a few thousand people are killed in car accidents every year.
what a (c)rock this thread is.'
Iraq was all about the oil.
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