Guy Fawkes' blog of parliamentary plots, rumours and conspiracy: September 2007
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Sunday, September 30, 2007

Why Not Have Tory Conference in Nice, France?

A flight from London to Nice on Easyjet is cheaper than a train ticket from London to Blackpool and it is quicker. The conference facilities in Nice are modern. The hotels are better and cheaper, the food is superb and there is still a chance of some sunshine. It would also show that the Tories are not xenophobic or anti-European. Guido is debating whether or not to go to Blackpool at all - it is so grim up north...

Saturday, September 29, 2007

Stormin Rennie is Ready!

Lord Rennard has just emailed Guido:

I am writing you this email from our newly created "election war-room" in Cowley Street. We have just had back-to-back meetings of our Shadow Cabinet and Federal Policy Committee to put the finishing touches to our general election manifesto.

Of course, I can't tell you the details just yet. [TOP SECRET DOUBLE HUSH HUSH] But it will be a very strong document setting our distinctive values with a strong emphasis on the environment.

Throughout this week the General Election Management Team has been planning things like our press conferences and Ming's extensive tour across the country. [CALL HELP THE AGED]

The reports from constituencies this weekend are very good. We have had thousands of party members knocking on doors and making telephone calls as part of "community canvass week" Ming himself was out canvassing earlier this week in Scotland.

Whether Gordon Brown calls the election next week, the following week, or at any time in future - we will be ready ! [LIKE THE BOY SCOUTS]

With best wishes

Chris Rennard
Chief Executive, Liberal Democrats

Odd...

Friday, September 28, 2007

Friday Caption Competition (Reds Edition)

Competition Winners

The best entries in the competition for a limerick that wittily summed up Gordon's conference speech win. Some were very good but didn't scan properly, others (which Guido particularly enjoyed) were too foul for the sponsors to be seen to endorse.

MixTogether said...

There was an auld policy robber
Who liked the Conservatives' clobber
"I'm Labour", said he,
"With a capital 'C'-
If you're going to vote Tory, don't bother!"

Nick Drew said...

Said the cowardly Cowdenbeath Scot
“If I use the word BRITISH a lot
and pretend that I’m CHANGED
(and by no means deranged)
- they won’t notice the economy’s shot . . ."

Charlotte Corday said...

Lacking Blair's sheer theatrical ham,
Brown droned on about Britishness ad nauseam,
He's against hospital grime,
Drugs, boozing and crime.
But if we're good, we're allowed a small Babysham.

Email Guido your postal addresses. If you didn't win you can always order a pack here.

Opinion Polls versus Actual Votes

Guido just stuck even more money on the Tories being the biggest party post-election. Note the bet terms carefully - the biggest party. The prices have admittedly moved further against the Tories since last month when Guido stuck £50 on Betfair. Guido now has a few hundred on 'em at prices up to 3.5, which seems too generous to resist. Crazy?

Last night the Tories took a seat off Labour in Sunderland, elsewhere in Dover there was a big double-digit percentage swing to Cameron, in marginals Labour lost votes. The Tories will also get a bounce from next week - despite the BBC trying desperately to develop a narrative of disillusionment and more defections - which should move the betting prices.

Why take the biggest party bet? Four reasons; Scotland and boundary changes are going to hurt Labour, thirdly the Ashcroft marginal machine is where the real battle is, not in Labour's heartlands where traditional voters disillusioned by Blair can return to Labour without making a blind bit of difference. Finally, when politics re-starts for real in parliament, Gordon's big-tent gimmicks will be forgotten in that adversarial atmosphere.

Breaking News

Nick Robinson breathlessly informed us yesterday on his blog that "The BBC has learnt that over the past 24 hours the Labour Party has begun recruiting key staff to work on an election campaign." Nick is a brilliant investigative reporter isn't he? Guido read about that on Recess Monkey the day before, who read it in the Guardian.

Guido could be wrong, but something tells him Gordon is bluffing.

GuyNews : Blears Gets a Cookie-Monstering

Andrew Neil gave Blears a policy stealing monstering which went, errrm, right over her head. See report on GuyNews.TV.

Thursday, September 27, 2007

Never Work With Guido, Children or Animals

In a rare and uncharacteristic act of selfless public service, Guido spoke at an event for a few hundred sixth formers today (the honarium was a decent bottle of Marguax). He advised the politically minded students that they would be better off not going into politics if they wanted to make the world a better place.

Afterwards one of the organisers thanked me - "Yeah, thanks for that, I'm sure all the teachers who brought sudents along were overjoyed when you recommended that the world would be better off if they became honest drug dealers and arms traders rather than politicians." Glad to be of service.

Boris Landslide Result

Boris by a landslide wins the Conservative Party open primary to select their candidate for London Mayor:

  • Boris Johnson 15,661

  • Victoria Borwick 1,869

  • Andrew Boff 1,674

  • Warwick Lightfoot 609
Guido is surprised he only got some 3/4 of the votes...

The Miliblogger is Back to Bore for Britain

The Miliblogger is back and this time he has a gang. Guido is pleased to say he was the first to welcome him. If you want to give him some feedback, perhaps about the EU constitutional treaty, he would love to hear from you. Tell him Guido sent you...

Wednesday, September 26, 2007

The Fink Spots Shrum Hand

Tomorrow's Times will highlight the input of Bob Shrum into Gordon's conference speech. It turns out to have been a formulaic re-hash of old Shrum speeches. Danny Finkelstein spotted the similarity this afternoon and the paper has since confirmed it to be the case. Shrum is understood to have been given a desk in Downing Street.

Guido need hardly remind readers that Bob Shrum was paid by Gordon's think-tank, the Smith Institute, to advise him on political strategy. It was documentary evidence of that blatantly illegal activity (provided by Guido) which triggered the ongoing Charity Commission investigation. Ed Balls also berthed at the Smith Institute between leaving his job as a Treasury SpAd and becoming an MP - he was paid a little short of £100,000 for writing a couple of pamphlets.

With the transfer also of Konrad Caulkett from the Smith Institute to Downing Street as well, it is abundantly clear that the Smith Institute has served its purpose - preparing the ground for the Brown premiership. All unlawfully subsidised by the taxpayer...

Cultured Celebrity

Gordon did a light-hearted, well light-hearted by his standards, Q & A session with husky voiced, liberal-thinking man's crumpet, Mariella Frostrup. It seems like it was only yesterday that he signaled his disapproval of aspects of Britain's celebrity culture: "It is a remarkable culture where people appear on television and are famous simply for the act of appearing on television."

Mariella is, errm, a famous TV presenter...

What No Scotland?

The Lobby is jumping all over Fraser Nelson's interview with George Osborne in the Speccie tomorrow where he appears to distance himself from the über-modernisers.

Of more interest to Guido was the information that in CCHQ
"a new map hangs in George Osborne’s office, showing the latest parliamentary boundaries for the next general election. It could have been designed to soothe the nerves of a Conservative party election co-ordinator, for it is dominated by Tory blue. A few tricks have been used to achieve this optical illusion. There is no Scotland".
Perhaps George is hoping that Scotland will be coloured yellow...

UPDATE : The Scottish press are very interested in this point of detail. Consequently Osborne's spin-doctor has been on to Guido claiming that the office does not belong to his boss. "So whose office is it?" Guido challenged, "Errr, I don't know." Guido called Fraser Nelson, he certainly thought it was Osborne's office - opposite Dave's own. Indeed at one point in the interview Dave walked in "Ah, so that’s where all the booze is kept" he said, "nodding to the bottles of Château Village 2003 in the corner of Mr Osborne’s office", according to Fraser. Where is Osborne's Millbank office? We were spun recently that an election-ready campaign team had moved into CCHQ Millbank from their parliamentary offices. Osborne is the campaign manager...

Ali Campbell Complains About the Blogosphere

"The blogosphere is very right wing at the moment. We need more voices out there to counter it" he told 200 mugs who had paid hard cash (£15) to hear Campbell plug his book - "perfect for Dad for Christmas" at a fringe event last night.

Chris Hope in the Telegraph agrees: it is the right-wing blogs that are shaping coverage in the dead-tree-press.
We know the ususal Tory suspects he is talking about - Guido Fawkes, Iain Dale and Tim Montgomerie's. There are left-wing blogs like LabourHome but they seem to lack the spikiness and must-read edge of Guido, for example.
After a lot of thought about this, Guido has come to a simple conclusion as to why British left-wing blogs are unsuccessful. It is not because Labour is in government. It is because they are boring.

Nothing To See Here...

Bournemouth police just happen to trot along in line abreast over IWannaReferendum slogan outside Labour's conference...

Time for Tactical Decisions from CCHQ and Cowley Street

The LibDems are getting pummelled in the polls - this morning a YouGov poll has them down another 3% to 13% with the Tories unchanged on 33%. Guido finds it hard to believe the accuracy of this poll - with Labour at 44% that makes them more popular than in 1997 when they scored 43%. Not very likely is it?

A hung parliament is still the most likely outcome of the next election whatever the polls currently say. The only way to ensure that outcome is to take seats off Labour, swapping Tory and LibDem seats will not change the government.

Is it time for them to consider tactical voting? Mike Smithson over at PoliticalBetting.com has made the case for this before, if you want to get rid of this government, vote for the party best placed to beat New Labour in your constituency. In Scotland that seems to have happened already, the business community has switched from the no-hope Tories to the SNP. In return the SNP has begun to talk more about "Enterprise Scotland" and is now polling even stronger than during the recent local elections.

The problem is that LibDem and Tory activists hate each other. They would not countenance any explicit instruction to vote for the other party. Often at each others neck in local government, the idea of a non-aggression pact is unpalatable. Rather than going into any protracted negotiations the Tories should just direct resources away from LibDem incumbents and into the battle in Labour seats. The LibDems political antennae would detect the shift, they would consequently be able to shift their more limited resources away from defending LibDem seats against Tory insurgents and towards attacking Labour incumbents.

Encouraging Tories and LibDems to work together is not easy, but there is one issue that is heartfelt by LibDems and Tories in their libertarian hearts - ID cards. Pushing ID cards up the political agenda would place Tories and LibDems on the same side of the barricades against an authoritarian government. Psychologically a useful pre-cursor to a post-election deal. If Tory and LibDem activists worked together on the NO 2 ID campaign they might even find their rivals more likeable. As Brown begins to sound more and more authoritarian, emphasising "Strength", "Britain" and "British jobs for British workers" the Liberal Democrats may realise they have a lot more in common with Cameron's liberal Conservatives than with Brown's ideology of state power. Ming may lean towards Brown, but the next LibDem leader is less likely to do so...

Tuesday, September 25, 2007

Sky Trumped

Sky are handing out top trumps cards at the Labour party conference featuring 30 politicians rated for their Year Elected, Majority, Charisma, Looks and Parliamentary Skills. That leaves a lot of cheesed off politicians who have not even made the pack - never mind getting a rating.

The campaigners at the Taxpayers Alliance have also produced a Political Trumps pack, with 52 cards doubling as a normal pack of cards as well - with Lembit and Boris as the Jokers of course.

The Taxpayers Alliance version rates politicians for Years per Department, Media Skills, Integrity, Scandal Avoidance, Private Sector and Front-Bench Experience. Revealingly different metrics from the Sky pack - where the ratings were made by Lobby hacks.

Guido has packs to give away to the three best entries in his competition for a limerick that wittily sums up Gordon's speech from yesterday. Entries in the comments please.

If you don't win you can always order a pack here.

Picture Imperfect

To pick up a media pass for the Conservative conference in Blackpool they specify that you have to bring photo-ID. Your face is not good enough?

Pelling Charges Imminent

Word reaches Guido that Croydon MP Andrew Pelling is to be charged imminently. The local Tory executive committee meets tomorrow night for an emergency meeting. They will wait until he is charged before formally deselecting him.

Candidates are already being sounded out to replace him in this ultra-marginal (the Tories have only a 75 vote majority). Guido would bet on the winning candidate being a woman. Note that Gavin Barwell, who runs Lord Ashcroft's targets seats operation, is the Conservative whip on Croydon council. He has been spending a lot of time in Croydon recently…

Andrew Pelling signed a few relevant motions in the last year;
EDM 1793 VIOLENCE AND INEQUALITY 27.06.2007
That this House notes the establishment of the new Commission for Equality and Human Rights (CEHR) due in October; recognises that violence and abuse is a violation of human rights and often both a consequence and perpetuator of inequality; further notes, for example, the higher levels of sexual abuse in women and girls with learning difficulties... and therefore supports the End Violence Against Women Coalition in their call for the CEHR to address the relationship between violence and inequality as a priority when it begins work later this year.

EDM 650 NATIONAL CENTRE FOR DOMESTIC VIOLENCE 16.01.2007
That this House welcomes the launch of the National Centre for Domestic Violence in the North East...

EDM 282 INTERNATIONAL DAY FOR THE ELIMINATION OF VIOLENCE AGAINST WOMEN 23.11.2006
That this House notes that 25th November is International Day for the Elimination of Violence Against Women; further notes the newly published report of the End Violence Against Women campaign...
Guido wonders if it was his research assistant who signed him up...

Basher Shoots Another Staff Member

Guido hasn't found the body, but there is circumstantial evidence that yet another David Davis staff member has bitten the dust. Does anyone have an explanation for this puzzling phenomenon?

Monday, September 24, 2007

Don't Miss Dispatches Tonight on C4 at 8pm

Have just finished reading Peter Oborne's new book The Triumph of the Political Class. It is a brilliant anatomisation of the reality of the contemporary situation. Guido is therefore looking forward to tonight's exposé of the venality of our politicians. Ed Balls and Yvette Cooper's legal fiddling of £27,000 of allowances will be covered...

Ten More Years of the Same?

David Miliband said on the weekend that he wants another ten years of New Labour rule. Looking through today's speech from Gordon about his aspirations for Britain, it struck Guido that it is all more of the same. After ten years all the goals of 1997 are still the goals of 2007.

Child poverty, social mobility, youth unemployment, basic literacy and crime are still unsolved problems. In some of these areas things have gone back, not forward - youth unemployment is worse, violent gun crime is higher. How can Gordon be the change?

Lost Count

Guido lost count of the number of times Gordon said "Britain" or "British". Don't think he mentioned Scotland once...

UPDATE :
The Fink makes a snappy point, Gordon "pledged that unless contract cleaners in hospitals meet the highest standards of cleanliness they will lose their contract. What's the procedure at the moment, then?"

Circus Master Cracks His Whip

The Sun is running this morning, over seven pages, an all out campaign for a referendum on the EU constitutional treaty. Guido senses that Murdoch is reminding the performing political monkeys who the real circus master is, and that he can really crack the whip if need be.

Click to enlarge.
It is The Sun at its finest, politics with humour, accessible and witty. Kelvin Mackenzie would be proud...

Incidentally, Guido will be getting his chance to vote "No" - in Ireland.

Rich & Mark's Monday Morning View

Sunday, September 23, 2007

From A-List to Shoplift

Adam Rickitt is the soap star A-lister who, despite dancing semi-naked in pop videos, never managed to find a seat. So he went down under to New Zealand to act in a local show.

The New Zealand Herald on Sunday reports today that he has been arrested for shoplifting.

Meanwhile over at the News of the Screws Andrew Pelling's soon to be ex-wife has put the boot in to the soon to be ex-MP, accusing him of being a Prozac-crazed, Chav-hating, Cameron-despising loon. So he is not completely crazy...

Hat-tip :
kiwiblog.co.nz

Friday, September 21, 2007

Friday Caption Contest (Andrew Pelling Edition)

Sky News to Up Online Coverage

Adam Boulton has found out that this blogging lark is harder than he thought and has brought in reinforcements, his blog is now re-branded Boulton & Co with more of the newsroom collaborating.

Sky News is re-launching next month as well, with a 7.30pm slot with a net focus. They are looking to get some of the UK's most influential bloggers to comment on the news stories that are moving up across the web. Alas they can't lure Guido out of his cellar, so if you fancy becoming a talking head, email their multi-media producer Ruth Barnett. Or else it will be Iain...

Nadine Dorries Fails Conference Security Check

Nadine Dorries MP is having problems getting a pass for the Tory conference, her researcher has already been refused a pass on the grounds that his pass was taken in front of a tree.

Is CCHQ trying to tell the garrulous Cornerstone supporter something?

Totty Watch : Polish Women's Party

This poster for the upcoming Polish elections on behalf of the Women's Party (Partia Kobiet) has the slogan: "Everything for the future... and nothing to hide." Which, typically of politicians, is a barefaced lie since they seem to be hiding behind a poster.

"We are beautiful, nude, proud. We are true and sincere, body and soul. This is not pornography, there is nothing to see in terms of sex, our faces are intelligent, concerned, proud. We do not have our mouths open nor our eyes closed... All that interests us is the future, the position of women in society. We will open the archives of the former secret communist agents, we will make known their corrupt affairs," says party president Manuela Gretkowska. Naked anti-communism? Gets Guido's vote...

Hat-tip :
Raincoaster

Thursday, September 20, 2007

BBC Agenda for Tory Conference

With all the allegations about the BBC having a political agenda it is good to know that they are being careful not to trigger more ridiculous knee-jerk, right-wing claims of an anti-Cameron bias.

Still if you are going to be in Blackpool, the BBC's World at One is offering free booze on the preceding Sunday night to any Tories who are willing to discuss "David Cameron – Is He Out of Touch With His Own Party?" Hic...

GuyNews : Research May Clear Pelling

New research may clear Andrew Pelling. See report on GuyNews.TV.

Too Late...

Tory Whips Tell Pelling to Resign

Andrew Pelling is a pathetic human being. The 48 year-old MP left his first wife to take up with his (now) 26 year-old research assistant Lucy. Not the first MP to do that, probably not the last either.

She has been seen around the Houses of Parliament in recent months with a black-eye and other bruises. All has become chillingly clear with the news that he has been arrested for assault.

To get the full measure of the man you have to know that his young wife is seven weeks pregnant. Guido understands that the Tory Whips are to make it abundantly clear his career is over.

King Holds His Own

Mervyn is coming over as calm, collected and straight forward. He said something interesting about the Treasury guarantee, or rather the form of words used about it was interesting, "my understanding...as far as I know", signalling that he was not the author of, or privy to the details.

Watch Labour Blame King

The entire Labour apparatus is straining to blame Mervyn King for the Northern Rock debacle. He will without doubt be mauled at the Treasury Select Committee today.
The BBC's Robert Peston is leading the media charge against Mervyn King. In reality it is of course the Northern Rock board, in particular Derek Wanless, who should be resigning. Alastair Darling's own fumbling performance and if house prices tumble, the taxpayer guarantee's open ended recklessness will be a catastrophic matter for resignation. Another resignation candidate is Andy Burnham, Chief Secretary to the Treasury, he simply hasn't got a clue. When he was asked in an interview should the government "guarantee 100% of all bank deposits", he replied that it would be "the wrong thing" for politicians to get involved "in that way". Within that very hour Darling did exactly that. The only reason Mervyn King should resign is in disgust at Brown and Darling politicising the Bank of England.

Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Cherie Does a Hilary

Cherie's husband is out of office, so she has decided to cash-in and write her autobiography. Obviously the quicker she does it the more she'll make, so no surprise there. It is apparently going to be "warm, intimate and often funny". Must be fiction.

Look at the cover picture, does the whole black roll-neck thing remind you of another political wife's post-husband -leaving-office autobiography?

You don't think Cherie is going to copy Hilary and try running for office as well? She really does hate Gordon*...

*You can see what she thinks of Gordon on GuyNews.TV.

Who is Really to Blame for Northern Rock?

Robert Peston's reporting for the BBC of the whole Northern Rock saga has had a "blame Mervyn" undertone to it. Today he basically peddles one of the two Treasury favoured spin lines;
  1. The Treasury's primary spin-line is that it is all because of the sub-prime crisis in America and that no one could predict it coming.
  2. The second line of spin is that it is the Bank of England's fault for not flooding the market with liquidity when trouble came.
The first point is easy to deal with, Mervyn saw it coming as did half the City, that is why Northern Rock shares halved long before the headlines. The blame really lies first and foremost with the board and management of Northern Rock. They failed to foresee the problems and they alone bear responsibility for the dash for growth and profits through securitisation which has unravelled. The LibDem's Vince Cable was spot-on when he blamed the Northern Rock management for their own undoing. So should Mervyn King discourage or encourage bankers to make mistakes?

King thought not on September 12, yet under pressure from Alastair Darling, the very next day he supported the bail-out of the Northern Rock management. There was no systemic risk to the financial system which could justify such a move. Now with the Treasury promising to guarantee all bank deposits, the British banking industry has become Moral Hazard central. The news that King has been forced to effectively reverse a sound policy means all risks have been transferred to the taxpayer. So if today an RBS trader "did a Leeson" the Treasury would end up picking up the tab.

The second line of Treasury spin is that the Bank of England should have flooded the markets with liquidity. That is never generally a good idea for an institution obliged to fight inflation. Market participants were in any event able to borrow from the bank window at penalty rates (and some did). Northern Rock could not do it because they did not have the necessary collateral.

The blame lies not with Mervyn King but squarely with Northern Rock's management. The Northern Rock board took the risk in their dash for profit growth, a risk that should have been spotted at board level by their risk management committee chaired by Sir Derek Wanless.

Wanless should resign immediately and be stripped of any bonuses and performance related payments.

Sith's Deborah Mattinson is Advisor to Northern rock

Gordon Brown's personal pollster, Deborah Mattinson, advises Northern Rock on corporate responsibility programmes. Presumably it was she who advised giving circa half-a-million quid to New Labour's IPPR think-tank. How many more of Gordon's circle have their hand in the Northern Rock till?

Gordon's New Convictions Revealed