Tom Watson Breaks His Promise, As Predicted

Back in October last year Guido wrote of Tom Watson:-

"was overheard telling senior party officials in his constituency recently that he expects "to be back in government" after Gordon takes over... Gordon wouldn't reward the treachery that he has publicly disavowed advance knowledge of and claimed he would have advised against. Would he?"

Tom got very upset and posted in the comments

For the record: I do not want to go back into government whoever leads the Labour Party. I'm very happy being a constituency MP.
10:28 AM, October 26, 2006

He went on to write

I'm an overweight opinionated member of parliament, I embarrass my relatives all the time. That was the only accurate bit of your post. But you know this.

The bit about returning to government is the inaccurate part of your post. But then I suspect you know this too. You are asking people to comment on a story that isn't true. It doesn't do you or political bloggers any service. Then again, why am I bothering to say this to you? You know all this as well.
11:15 AM, October 26, 2006

With a reputation for accurate and balanced reporting to protect, Guido was troubled by this, perhaps Tom Watson was not a treacherous, lying plotter who met and connived with Brown on the eve of his coup attempt against Blair. Maybe he was not going to return to government under Brown. Guido offered to retract the allegation if he promised not to return to government.

Tom said...

It shouldn't be neccesary but to amuse you: I promise never to return to government.

Good enough?
11:26 AM, October 26, 2006

Tom Watson rejoined the government as a whip today. But we never really believed him did we? Nor did we really believe that he only chatted to Gordon about the kids. As politicians go, Tom Watson is one of the most mendacious shits in parliament. The thing is, he is proud of it.

Smith Institute Board's Financial Backing for Gordon

The Smith Institute's director, Wilf Stevenson claims that it is an independent, non-partisan charity and has no direct links to Gordon Brown.

So it is a bit of a coincidence that Lord Haskell, chairman of the Board of Trustees gave a five grand donation to Gordon's leadership campaign. Even more of a coincidence that another board member, Mr Paul Myners, gave twelve grand. Surely he can't remain mere "mister" Myners for much longer. It was Myners of course who provided the implausible story to cover-up the Treasury's direct payment to the Smith Institute.

You won't read about this in the Guardian, because although it likes to advertise that it has no press baron owner, Myners is chairman of the Guardian Media Group as well as being a Sith board member. Another fortunate coincidence...

The official position, as of this afternoon, is the "The Charity Commission's inquiry into the Smith Institute remains open and ongoing". How much longer can the investigation go on? It is a pretty open and shut case.

PMS First Briefing : The Spin Begins

We must now learn to call the PMOS the PMS, he is no longer the PM's Official Spokesman because that would imply an Unofficial spokesman doing off-the-record spin. That is apparently not going to happen anymore in our changed spin-free-Brownite era.

But lo, the age of spin may not be completely dead. At Michael Ellam's first briefing as Brown's mouthpiece on Wednesday, he announced the symbolic first move in office: stopping Alastair Campbell and Jonathan Powell from telling civil servants what to do. When sharp-eyed and unusually on the ball Lobby hacks pointed out that neither man still worked in government, Ellam, suffering perhaps first-day nerves, conceded: "It is a meaningless gesture."

This is not quite how the exchange is reported on the No. 10 website, though:

"Put to him that the Orders of Council applied to just two people, one who had already gone and one who effectively went today, and did not actually apply to anyone else, the PMS replied that while this was technically correct, this was not a meaningless gesture."

If Mr Ellam dares to contradict Guido there is a recording...

Friday Caption Contest (Isaby Edition)

No Cabinet Minister Has the Experience to Run A Whelk Stall

The cabinet re-shuffle analysis in the press will be detailed, so Guido will skip it. One blogger's analysis struck Guido as critical - not a single member of the cabinet has had a business career. Absorb that fact. Is it any wonder that Gordon felt the need to draft in Digby Jones?

Digby Jones is a talented operator and he will no doubt do a good job as minister for trade promotion. He is not however a new face, Guido recalls that the then Chancellor used his pre-budget report to announce Digby's appointment as his "skills envoy" only six months ago. So he is being re-announced as a Brownite ally. Ironically he always struck Guido as a business leader with a libertarian streak - see his pronouncements on taxation, regulation and political correctness - perhaps that is why he won't be joining the Labour party.

Gordon's offer of a peerage was enough to get him go over to the dark side and join a government with no business nous whatsoever.

Prezza Who?

A co-conspirator emails:

Spotted last night - Prescott strutting into a parliamentary party dinner with a cabal of confidantes, then second later re-emerging in full tantrum, confidantes in hot (though somewhat bothered) pursuit, complaining "Not one of them stood up when I entered the room! I was deputy prime minister only four hours ago!"

Could be worse, ask Tony...

++ YATES QUESTIONS BLAIR AGAIN ++

"Not long now.." Guido said on Monday.

July 19 By-Elections Confirmed

LabourHome confirms that the Labour Chief Whip has moved the writ for Ealing Southall and Sedgefield by-elections this morning. Gordon wants to move quick to prevent any ability for the opposition to build momentum in what should be nominally safe Labour seats.

Shirley Williams : No Brown Job

LibDem Voice reports Shirley stating “I met Gordon Brown at 6:30pm on Wednesday evening. We had a friendly and constructive discussion. I was not offered a Ministerial position and would not have accepted one."

Sieghart Says Times Colleagues Craven to Brown

Startlingly candid admission in Mary Ann Sieghart's farewell column:

As this is to be my last regular column for The Times, I am in a different position today from other commentators. I don’t have to worry about whether the new regime at No 10 will return my calls, at least until the autumn. I don’t have to curry favour with anyone or worry about giving offence. Instead I can give you an unvarnished prediction of what the next few years of a Gordon Brown premiership will be like.

She has, it is rumoured, taken up the offer of a redundancy payout in the latest round of News International job cuts. Last time Guido indulged in a bit of Times-bashing they got very upset. Peter Riddell even called up an associate to tell him to stop associating with Guido, there was talk of them getting Guido back with an "exposé". But here you have it from someone who knows; Peter Riddell, Phil Webster et al suck up to Brown and Balls out of fear. It must be true, it is printed in The Times...

Fancy a Bet George?

The Sun's George Pascoe-Watson, author of this famous front page prediction, says we may have an election in October, but most likely next June. Guido is offering 2/1 against George, if you are interested.

Talking of betting with journalists, Mark Townsend, the Observer hack who wrote in the loss making Sunday paper that the CPS would wind up their inquiry into Loans for Lordships last October with nothing doing and wagered with Guido accordingly, still has not paid up.

Phone calls and emails go unanswered. Guido strongly recommends that he pays up this week.

Is It All Balls? Who is It?

Tory and LibDem HQs are more fearful of defections today than the Soviet Olympic Team Coach used to be. Benedict Brogan says it is not going to be Rifkind. Some are worried about Patten. Still no public denial by Bercow, who incidentally backed the expansion of grammar schools last month.

LibDems should be aware that Shirley Williams was apparently spotted going into Gordon's Commons office. She incidentally closed down grammar schools. So presumably her talent would cancel out Bercow's talent.

Is it all just to destabilise the opposition? Of course, but it goes both ways, Frank Field was spotted chatting to David Laws, his brow furrowed. You never know...

UPDATE : Adam Boulton is reporting "Strong rumours that the Lib Dem peer and QC Alec Carlisle will be appointed Attorney General."

Scholar's Hands-On Attitude to Staff

As Guido and others predicted, Gordon Brown has recalled his former private secretary from the IMF/World Bank in Washington to become his Chief-of-Staff.

The Downing Street secretaries should be aware that his last girlfriend, a junior employee at the Bank, prospered very well during his time as a Board member. There were allegations made of favouritism in that scurrilous gossip rag The Wall Street Journal - which were subsequently denied. Still girls, it is worth knowing...

The Big Red Story of the Day

Of course the really big story of the day is that today sees the launch of the Big Red Book of New Labour Sleaze updated to include all the latest shenanigans and with a bit more of a focus on Gordon Brown.

It has been written by bloggers with contributions from across the spectrum of the political blogosphere. It is in the bookshops this week or you can buy it online by clicking on the picture. And you can expect a little viral advertising campaign with a difference soon...

The Guidoisation of European Politics

Guido was thumbing through his builder's reading material when he noticed this on the cover of Wprost, Poland's answer to the Economist.

German politicians have lost it over the montage of German Chancellor Angela Merkel's bare breasts suckling Polish Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski and his twin brother, President Lech Kaczynski under the headline "Stepmother of Europe". The Hun seem to be a little lacking in a sense of humour here. Seems harmless enough to Guido, attractive even...

++ Bercow Pulls Out of Party Parliamentary Dinner Tonight ++

Usually reliable sources...

John Bercow's Office : Rumours Absolutely Untrue

Guido called and got an "absolutely untrue" response from John Bercow's office about rumours that he will cross the floor tomorrow. Of course if you were about to cross the floor you would hardly broadcast it...

Guido and the Monkey interviewed Bercow for one of our infamous pubcasts last year and he was effusive in praise of Dave, and damning of Gordon. Relevant is his total avowal of any interest in any other party than the Tories. Hear the interview here.

UPDATE : Some are pointing to this speech last week by Bercow, formerly an avowed Euro-sceptic, with particular interest.

Lobby Slower than Guido Again

Yesterday morning Guido reported that Blair would resign as an MP. Today the rest of the Dead-Tree-Press is catching up and reporting that he will do so this afternoon. Tory party Chairman Frankie Maude put CCHQ on by-election alert after reading the story here yesterday morning.

Guido even managed to beat blogging Benedict Brogan, which is becoming increasingly difficult to do nowadays. Do keep up the rest of you...

Look Who Flew in to Say Goodbye to Blair

Yates of the Yard is still chasing down evidence and statements to tighten up the case against Sleazy Levy.

Police flew in Ms Courtney Coventry yesterday to question her again about her dealings with Blair and Levy. In April 2004 she was canvassed by Jane Hogarth, the Labour party's former head of high-value fund raising who supposedly has been made redundant - but is actually still working as a "consultant" to the party.

Lord Levy introduced Courtney, as a potential donor, to Tony Blair. The police want to know what Levy promised in return for a donation.

Quentin Quits

Quentin Davies has flounced out of the Tories. Odd. He accuses Cameron of "superficiality, unreliability and an apparent lack of any clear convictions".

He describes Gordon as "a leader I have always greatly admired, who I believe is entirely straightforward, and who has a towering record, and a clear vision for the future of our country which I fully share."

So which person of clear conviction said

“the Chancellor has been losing control… His projections… have been consistently wrong. He has been wrong about both revenues and expenditure… The Chancellor took risks… he is imprudent… a great worry… very worrying… he simply wanted to win the next election—if he can… it does not matter what happens afterwards… the Chancellor went in for an orgy of self-congratulation… deceiving other people… complacency… he is not prudent and responsible, and not a person to be entrusted with the management of anybody's finances, let alone the country's finances… unattractive and frankly problematic… an absolutely devastating misjudgement and mistake—the destruction of our pensions system… We have not had a word of apology from the Chancellor… He was just incredibly imprudent… extraordinarily incompetent… extraordinarily naïve… desperately complacent… As a result of that self-congratulation and complacency, the Chancellor is becoming so cut off that he is beginning to underestimate the intelligence of the electorate… I trust and believe that something nasty will happen to the Chancellor in electoral terms before too long. He will have no one but himself to blame.

That would be, yes you guessed it, reliable Quentin Davies.

Letts on Harman

Quentin Letts, who is evidently a Guido fan, has a characteristically fair minded and gentle piece about Harriet Harman today. Well worth reading.

Brown's "Lemming Bounce" Confirmed

The Indy headline says it all - Brown's 'bounce' fails to materialise as Tories take five-point lead. The somewhat deranged voices who think Brown will be the electoral saviour of the Labour party will be terribly disappointed.

Guido predicted the Lemming effect - they are going to miss three times election winning Blair when he is gone. Wait and see...

Meanwhile on Facebook...

Remember when we used to do eBay stories? That is just so 2006, now we do Facebook stories, this just popped up:

David Miliband joined the group Harriet Harman for Deputy!.

David Miliband just left the group Johnson for Deputy!.

Hat-tip : Guido ** waves back at Popbitch.**

Labour Sources : Blair to Quit Sedgefield Seat++ Getting Ready for a By-Election ++

Yesterday evening rumours reached Guido that Tony Blair will step down from parliament as a constitutency MP by applying for the Chiltern Hundreds this week. Cherie has in any case reportedly started moving furniture out of their constituency house. Labour staffers have been primed for a second campaign (besides Ealing Southall). The party machine is moving in for the by-election. Staff have been ordered to pack their bags and head for Sedgefield on Thursday.

With his new role as Middle East facilitator it is hard to see how Blair would commute between Jerusalem and Durham, one minute sorting out lost welfare benefit claims and the next minute pacifying the Palestinians.

Sedgefield is a safe seat, and dual by-elections will stretch the LibDem machine into two operations.

Many Labour left-wingers might think that the result of a Sedgefield by-election would count as a "Labour Gain".

Early Election? Don't Think So...

Propellor-Head Wonk Watch: the appointment of Douglas Alexander to oversee preparations for the next general election might be seen by some as Brownite genius. Guido thinks that depends on how you view his overseeing of the recent election campaign where Labour lost control in Scotland for the first time in generations. Some think it could have been worse.

Guido remembers attending a Demos event last year where the new campaign commissar was giving his thoughts. With all this talk of an early election in the air the boys and girls at CCHQ and Cowley Street would do well to dig out his "Serving a Cause, Serving a Community" Demos pamphlet from last year. In it he urged the Labour party to work in partnership rather than parallel with like minded organisations including trade unions. Gordon is spinning today that he wants to reduce the power of the unions through one man, one vote.

He wrote about the party to becoming a "community hub" creating space for shared discussion with social interest groups who will have input into local party campaigns using blogs and chat rooms to encourage debate with those preferring not to go to formal party meetings. LabourHome is their best semi-unofficial attempt at this, and it still shaded by ConservativeHome.

He also claimed he wanted to throw off the control-freak shackles and loosen the rigid party structures to allow issues to be discussed informally and he wanted to decentralise professional party staff resources from national to local level. Once again the Tories have the edge here, they are far less control-freaky and they already have their Northern call-centre operation with regional offices benefiting from Lord Ashcroft's cash.

If the Demos pamphlet was Douglas Alexander's job application it will take time to achieve his goals for Labour. That together with their cash crisis, makes Guido doubtful they will go for an early election.

Glover : Editors Should Not Associate With Levy

Stephen Glover in the Indy this morning agrees with Guido, that it may prove to have been inadvisable for editors to attend Sleazy Levy's leaving party.

Not long now...

Harman Was Backed by the Sith

Guido has only just found out that Harman was advised by Deborah Mattinson, the high-priestess of the Sith, Gordon's personal pollster, Smith Institute board member and recipient of many juicy government contracts though her firm OLR.

It was her, Guido believes, that commissioned the YouGov poll showing that Harman had much needed appeal in the South East. That poll result featured heavily in Harman's propaganda...

GuyNews : "Oh, F**K" - Who's That Girl?

No doubt Harriet Harman will be savouring the moment the announcement was made by watching the video of it over and over again.

Watch the reaction of the girl immediately behind her - you can clearly make out the verbal exclamation as she buries her head in her hands.

It doesn't take the skills of a lip-reader. Watch the clip on GuyNews.

[Many thanks to a T-shirt winning co-conspirator in the gallery.]

Rich & Mark's Monday Morning View

BBC : Labour must have soul, says Brown

From the Guardian : Rich Johnston, the British cartoonist who works for the Guido Fawkes political blog, has been asked by US comic publishers IDW to create a box of bubble gum cards on the life and times of George W Bush, entitled Weapons of Mass Distraction. "Being paid to write up the various scandals of Bush and co - it was like taking candy from a baby," Johnston says.

Harman - Ouch

That was expensive. No, Guido didn't lay it off. Mike Smithson will be chuffed.

Bet she isn't Deputy-PM, mind you the way Guido's bets are going...

UPDATE : Not DPM, Guido got that right at least. Worse reporting from the Telegraph and Sky. It was also a pretty bad call some time back from YouGov's poll of the membership for the Times as well.

UPDATE II : Cruddas transfers from Amicus and the TGWU swung it for Harman. Johnson won in the affilates and MPs sections and still lost.

Will Tony Be the First Catholic PM?

It would cause this Catholic freedom fighter immense amusement if today Tony became Britain's first Roman Catholic Prime Minister. Knowing the vanity of Blair it is not impossible that he would choose to join the Catholic communion by the hand of His Holiness.

At this stage he will have no further hand in Anglican Bishopric appointments and any possible unease caused in Orange circles in Northern Ireland now irrelevant, it would be a good time to formalise his position.

An added bonus being he could ask the Pope there and then for absolution for his sins...

UPDATE : The Observer's John Hooper in Vatican City reports a Vatican source saying Blair used his last official foreign engagement before leaving office to tell the Pope he wanted to become a Roman Catholic.

"But, in talks lasting more than half an hour, the outgoing Prime Minister was left in no doubt that the Pope took a dim view of his record in office. A statement issued afterwards by the Vatican said there had been a 'frank exchange of views'. Vatican sources said the Pope remained unmoved in his view that Blair had been wrong over Iraq. To an even greater extent than his predecessor, Benedict feels that Catholic politicians cannot separate their public lives from their private."

Friday Caption Contest (Grasping for Power Edition)

This has not been photoshopped.

Sources Deny Kennedy Cabinet Rumour

Sources close to Charles Kennedy deny rumours that he has taken up a position in a government drinks cabinet.

Tamzin Warned About Basher

In her last Speccie diary she predicted that Basher's office would become a warzone with wounded interns and injured researchers. Tamzin blogs the latest casualty report.

What Alivia Did Next...

Basher Davis Reduces Another Staffer to Tears

The Indy's Pandora story this morning (see below) has allowed the inner Basher to come to the fore. Alivia Kratke has been asked to "leave the office". She was reduced to tears protesting that she was not the nameless source of the quote in the piece "He makes junior staff sit separately in a dingy bunker with no natural daylight. Lunch breaks are militarily monitored. Morale's miserable."

Today of all days, Happy Birthday Alivia, poor thing. Give Guido a call and he will buy you a commiseration drink...

UPDATE : Yes, she is the pissed friend of Katy in this infamous video from the last Tory conference.

UPDATE II : Do you think Basher got the Cameroonie Politics of Happiness Memo?

Le Totty Watch : Socialist Affairs

The French press is even more craven in the reporting of political misdoings than our own tame/feral* Lobby. So it is no surprise that it was the French blogosphere, not the Paris press, that made it impossible to keep Socialist party leader François Hollande's affair secret.

François had four children with Ségolène Royal (pictured left), the losing French Socialist Presidential candidate. He is having an affair with TV8's political reporter, Valerie Trierweiler (pictured right). When announcing their split the elegant Ségolène said that now "he was free to enjoy his romantic life alone".

France has strict privacy laws of the kind that some of our politicians would love to have over here. Blogs now make those laws almost impossible to enforce. Technological progress.

Hat-tip : EuroSoc

*You choose.

Informed Sources?

Guido reads in the Indy's Pandora column that David Davis is horrible to his staff and that Hilary Armstrong "is rumoured" to not be staying in government come the Brown takeover. Startling revelations.

Hilary formally announced she was standing down two weeks ago.

Co-conspirators Clean Up on Guido Tip

Yesterday afternoon Guido tipped Alan Johnson to win and advised co-conspirators to get down to the bookies quick. By this morning the odds collapsed, Benn has gone from 3/1 to 11/1, Alan Johnson is so much the hot favourite that you'll have to risk £4 to win less than a pound. Co-conspirators cleaned up. Good luck at Ascot, where Guido would rather watch the ladies than the horses...