The Coming Economic Downturn
Just flicking through this morning's Pink 'Un must be grim reading for Darling and Brown:
UK home affordability hits 15-year low
Decline in UK confidence hits hiring
UK producer price inflation hits 16-year high
The authoritative investment bank Morgan Stanley is now predicting a U.S. recession next year. Given that the British economy is debt-bloated and during the feast years Gordon just splurged on more spending rather than putting something aside for a famine, the U.K. economy is heading for a very hard-landing next year. The Tories will be very glad that Gordon didn't call that election. Happy Christmas...
39 comments:
...and our gold was sold off cheaply, our civil service pension bill has mushroomed, PFIs and ALMOs have been moved off budget, our private pensions schemes have been robbed for current expenditure, etc etc etc.
Still, look on the bright side. Labour MPs have voted themselves a nice pension, so no problem there then.
Jingle Balls
I'm off to the pub.
I don't think Eire is going to walk away free either Guido.
This and the insolvency stuff from the 6th should be getting a lot more air time from the media - or is it that they simply don't know which mammoth screw up to focus on at any one time.
I think a soon to be retired senior civil servant (with massive pension) summed it nicely.
"I'm fucked, you're fucked, we're all fucked"
A fine epithet for this government!
Today's panic buying of petrol won't help. Several garages in Wirral have run out of diesel already and unleaded has been pushed up as far as £1.22 a litre at some stations and there is talk of rationing.
Housing market has stalled so probably big price cuts next year and negative equity for many. The shops are half empty and many , who were just hanging on for Xmax will be going bust in January.
Half the Wirral is up to it's ears in debt that they can hardly afford to meet and that's before many of their cheap introductory mortgages end and they go on to much higher rates next year.
This place will be in meltdown within six months.
The great thing about it though is that when the shit hits the fan neither Brown nor Darling can really blame their predecessors.
Darling can't really blame Brown for reasons of survival - He would be sacked if he tried.
Brown can't blame Blair for reasons of survival - Milburn and Byers would forment revolt and the Labour party would tear itself apart.
It is going to be so much fun watching the wheels come off.
Tories will be very glad that Gordon didn't call that election....
And Tony and Sharon Blair, they'll be glad, too. Brown is such a stupid cunt, walking into this shit-trap. Shit that a blind man could see coming. You could be forgiven for thinking he had a thing about it.
Mr 45
Nobody is going to walk away free,except the perps. Just like usual round here.
45govt, the Celtic Tiger has been upgraded to Leopard. (Mac joke.)
Leopard being a lot like Vista. Known in some quarters as "Leoptard". (Julian, your opinion not required on this occasion, thanks all the same, pal!)
Some people are uninstalling it and going back to Tiger, just as some are uninstalling Vista and going back to XP SP2.
I wish we could uninstall Zanu Labour and revert to Thatcher. You knew where you were with her. Mad as a stoat but at least she put Britain first.
Me, I've uninstalled DOS and gone back to CP/M.
A proper election-winning Tory revival can only happen when a Leader Of The Opposition can stand up at PMQs and say "An end to boom and bust, you say? That was rubbish, wasn't it?".
Looks like that time is coming closer and closer for Crash Gordon.
2008 is going to be an economic bloodbath for many people. Included among those will be Gordon Brown, the most wasteful, dishonest, and profligate tax-and-spend Chancellor in living memory.
Also facing financial meltdown are those millions of shopping addicts and over-indebted mortgage borrowers who have been living way above their means on borrowed money for the past few years.
Now that they can't get hold of the money to continue their spending habits they're starting to moan about how unfair it all is.
Others complain that their cheap "teaser rates" are coming to an end on their recklessly high mortgages and they can't afford the higher standard rates they are going onto.
Well, fuck 'em all. They should have thought about all that when they were buying overpriced houses, flash cars, and imported crap that their earnings never justified.
The chickens are coming home to roost in 2008 for all the wasters.
Surly Bean will redefine what a recession is, secondly it will be a global problem and not a product of Bean's management. We will be told that our "strong" and "successful" economy has never been so well placed to withstand a downturn in economic activity.
Bean has abolished "boom to bust", the economic cycles start and end when he decides.
This all means that he has planned the repossession of property, the nationalisation of Labour's favourite bank (next to the co-op anyway) means that the Government will have access to a new housing stock. It can sell some to raise cash and also to allocate to those that are either to worthy to work or have a suspect right to live in this country.
Anyway you look at it we've all been screwed.
BDO Stoy Hayward Industry Watch study, by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), predicts that UK business failures will rise by 9 per cent to more than 17,600 in 2008, as the effects of the credit crunch and higher interest rates slow growth. The economic slowdown is expected to lead to a further increase in failures the following year, topping 18,140.
Brown's not an Economist he's a bloody pedant with a calculator. I'd like to ask Ed 'Go' Balls where he thinks we are we in the Economic cycle now?
When the then iron chancer, now subprime minister was advised NOT to sell of our gold, but then proceeded to anyway by preannouncing that he would thus depressing the price even further, who did he sell it to?
Companies, other countries? If it was companies, would they perchance have made donations to Labour beforehand?
Gentlemen, gentlemen, it was only Tory boom and bust he promised to end. Nothing was said about Labour boom and bust. And bust. And bust.
"My own personal view is that things may well go quite well next year."
- Evan Davis, the biased BBC's economics editor.
"Included among those will be Gordon Brown, the most wasteful, dishonest, and profligate tax-and-spend Chancellor in living memory."
Nah. He is exactly as bad as Dennis Healey - but then UK PLC went totally bust when Dennis the Menace was in charge. Old Gorgon may not be an economist but as a historian you would have thought he would have learnt from past mistakes. But then again, maybe he did it on purpose, mendacious cunt.
I see you have nicked my schadenfreude nickname. I'll donate it to you.
Not to worry lads just came across this, I know like me you'll be proud of what Gordon has done, enjoy. This is why folk vote Labour you know.
The number of people claiming jobseeker's allowance fell by 11,100 in November to 813,000, the lowest since the summer of 1975 and the 14th consecutive monthly cut. Total unemployment, including those not claiming benefit, fell by 15,000 in the quarter to October to 1.64 million, the lowest for more than a year.
Employment levels increased by 114,000 in the latest three months to 29 million, the highest figure since records began in 1971. The total number of jobs in the UK also reached a record high of more than 31 million, while the number of vacancies grew to more than 680,000 last month, the highest since 2001.
A depression = When your neighbour losses his job
A Recession = When you loose your job
A Recovery = When Gordon Brown looses his
stanislav said...
Afternoon Stan, looking forward to reading your offering when I've got time. Always like to have me tea first, Archers on the radio and then well it's time for the pub. Looks like I'll have to give it a miss again, now that's annoying.
comfy socks and co-op rum said...
... Employment levels increased by 114,000 in the latest three months to 29 million, the highest figure since records began in 1971. The total number of jobs in the UK also reached a record high of more than 31 million, while the number of vacancies grew to more than 680,000 last month, the highest since 2001.
Looks like the economy is still running at full capacity and inflation is still rising. I therefore am left wondering why the BoE decided to cut the Base Rate last week. Makes no sense at all to me.... unless they know something very bad is going to happen soon?
McBean's uselessness is so obvious and total that it is no longer possible to do it justice succinctly. Anyone who knows anything at all could have told you in 1997 (or at least from the moment he robbed the pensions money) that this was going to be the most fiscally useless chancellor, ever. Add to that the propensity to lie and lie (spinning is just a euphamism for lying) all the time we should have know we were doomed.
The man is also totally unsuited to leadership. He is blessed with a full measure of charisntma and personal habits that would sicken a goat raised on barbed wire and razor blades.
If I was no so depressed as to how a lot of poor exploited people are now going to suffer I would also be looking forward to some schadenfruede.
But the really annoying bit is that the bastard will personally get away with it. He will be moved to some international quango a swan about on our fucking money.
If the coming debacle proves to be bad enough to destroy his credibilty sufficiently so that he becomes totally unemployable, then I might be a bit mollified. But only a bit.
I wish the smug useless git nothing but ill.
Ah yes, Labour's employment record. 2 million claiming income support, 2.6 million claiming incapacity benefit, 2.7 million claiming disability living allowance. Their numbers are pretty good.
http://www.economist.com/research/articlesBySubject/displaystory.cfm?subjectid=478046&story_id=10269628
Anonymous said...
This and the insolvency stuff from the 6th should be getting a lot more air time from the media
Too bloody true, I say drop the footie and run with this, keep the Morse repeats though, and must keep Q.I. I'd miss that, dump Coronation Street and run with your stuff, I'm all for that. We need more folk of your intellect on this blog.
Britain has more debt than France and Germany combined. The tories don't want a recession, but labour have given us one.
comfy socks and co-op rum
The number of people classed as economically inactive, including those on long-term sick leave or who have given up looking for work is 111,000 higher than a year ago and represents more than 20 per cent of the working age population.
(from the Daily Mail).
Oh dear Mike. For someone so old you have a lot to learn, and so little time.
Remember back in the good old days when Harold Wilson was in charge and Dennis Healey had his hands on the cash register? Unemployment was even lower then than it is now. Of course veryone worked for the government then. Except it wasn't called the government - it was called something like "British Leyland" and it made cars no-one wanted - least of all the Brits. Sadly it seems this Alice in Woderland economy where millions of people were making things no-one wanted to buy couldn't last forever. The country went bust and the IMF were called in to bail us out and they told us that we had to cut public spending or else. But Labour wouldn't cut public spending and things just got worse. So we threw them out and put Maggie in instead. Until she sorted out all the financial problems Labour caused. It took 17 years to put it all right again.
Sadly we never learned our lesson and we put the same tits in charge as before. We thought we had money to burn and we could pretend we were Germany and have a good healthcare and education system. But unlike Germany we didn't want to actually work for it. We paid for it all using debt instead. And we created lots of lovely government jobs just like in the good old days of Dennis Healey and Harold Wilson - except they now work as teaching assistants in schools that don't teach very well instead of making cars no-one wants. Still, unemployment is down isn't it? Shame we don't export enough to pay for all the food and energy we have to import.
So UK PLC is up to its neck in debt, everyone works for the government, nobody else wants what we make and the cost of fuel is going through the roof. Feeling nostalgic Mike? Reminds me of the 70s and we all know how that ended - with Labour out of power for 17 years. Reckon it will be 34 years this time. Or maybe the LibDems will become the offocial opposition and Labour will melt away as all its supporters turn out to vote for the BNP. Anyway, I look forward to watching the outcome. I shall be in Oz by then.
http://burningourmoney.blogspot.com/
lola
'If the coming debacle proves to be bad enough to destroy his credibilty sufficiently so that he becomes totally unemployable, "
Then he'll get some high paying job in the EU, NO ONE is too incompetent to not be hired in Brussels.
"NO ONE is too incompetent to not be hired in Brussels."
It appears to be a qualification, in fact. Mandelson, Kinnock spring to mind immediately.
EU - the care home for failed socialists.
The downturn was due back in 2001 but the BoE postponed it. Looks like they're trying to delay it again. Hayek will be having the last laugh.
the indigenous brits have had a pretty stable birth rate for 10 years or so so have house prices shot up faster than wages!
labours imported vote - the immigrants.
they force down wages destroy training opportunities and work for the young and force up house prices.
but brown stays in power with his imported vote and busines gets cheap labour.
the rich poor devide widens and everyone is pissed off.
complain about immigration and its 7 years prison for you sunshine - our special labour voters are protected and you may not critise.
whats more its not labour at fault its you - you are clearly and evil nazi pig.
by the way private smith we know you suffered in iraq but your not in the army now its Browns civi street - so heres your cardboard box and be carefull not to sleep near the asylem scoungers homes(fit abled bodied men from afghanistsan and iraq who would rather watch our boys die on the BBC with their feet up eating kebabs then try and help themselfs and their own country) as they dont appreciate riff raff.
oh and dont try and pee in the park as we have dug it up to build immigrants homes, the building contract was not cheap but we have an understanding with a certain doner.
hey you could put your name on the list for one but seeing as you are not a muslim with 3 wives and 9 kids i dont fancy your chances.
vote labour baaa baaa baaa
the drop in Housing affordability is SOLELY attributable to the rise in money supply.
Did I mention that unleaded petrol is 28.8 pence per litre today.
Plus that is; the duty 50.35. Err and the vat on the duty 8.81. Ok errr plus the vat on the petrol 5.04.
Bugger, that leaves 8.9 pence out of the 101.9 I have just paid at Tesco in Southampton of which 1.33 must be the vat on that bit.
That Gordo bastard has just taken me for 65.53 pence out of my 101.9 pence per litre.
Somebody should organise a protest.
The "pink un" has got its knickers in a twist again!!
At PMQ's Gordo reigned supreme AGAIN!
Snot-gobbling up 75%
St..S..St..Stuttering up ex..er..ex..exponentially
Enquiries and reviews well above inflation ratios
Spin, obfuscation and lies at an all time high
Please remember this Christmas to donate to a rocking horse charity near you
http://www.horseandhound.co.uk/news/article.php?aid=39703&cid=397
McBean's uselessness is so obvious and total that it is no longer possible to do it justice succinctly. Anyone who knows anything at all could have told you in 1997 (or at least from the moment he robbed the pensions money) that this was going to be the most fiscally useless chancellor, ever. Add to that the propensity to lie and lie (spinning is just a euphamism for lying) all the time we should have know we were doomed.
Lola
The biggest grossing motion picture (1997) was Titanic.
I am a student of Synchronicity - the experience of two or more events which occur together by random chance but are actually related to one another conceptually.
And yep we are doomed, the skipper sold off the lifeboats, we are sinking fast, the icy black ocean is our fate.
Women, children and donaters first!
Wonder if I have enough time to show Kate Winslet a steamy shag in a model T?
Broon to Bust.
What was it he said to the union bosses who complained that he wasn't releasing 'funds' quickly enough in 1999? "Just watch the Guardian jobs pages a year from now."
Your money pay's his wages, and everyone on the Guardian jobs pages. Who's the fool? Certainly not Broon, or the "Centre for Social Cohesion and Inclusion Public Relations Director", Central London, £220K +Bonuses +Car +Foreign Trips with wife, 1st Class +Champagne Socialists +Cliffs Villa +Grace & Favour House (Old Admiralty Building - shag pa on desk).
The central banksters will throw billions of their monopoly money at this problem, and lower interest rates again, which is all they know to do. The crash may be put off for a few months, or even a year or two, but eventually the cards will give way and the working and middle classes will be wiped out. The wealthy will have moved their money into safe assets and Swiss currency, Switzerland being historically somewhat immune to these problems for some reason....
Inflation is of course as anyone knows an increase in the supply of a fiat currency: price inflation is one of the many symptoms of real inflation. Next year's gonna be a stinka! You ain't seen nothing yet!
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