Brown Bounce Finished
Graphic credit : ConHom
The Guardian's ICM poll signals the Brown Bounce is over, and now (after a delay much longer than Guido expected) Labour's post-Blair lemming-like lurch will re-commence. The Tories had a good conference, the Brown election bluff brought about unity in Blackpool, Dave gave a purposeful speech which was head and shoulders over Brown's plagiarised effort. Brown's well planned gimmicks, spin and fakery gave him a good summer, but this winter we'll hear no more talk of destroying the Tories and "all the talents" won't save him now.It wasn't the speech that turned the polls around, although if Dave had not delivered a good speech it would have undermined the advance of the Tories, it was the return of the Tory party's Unique Selling Point - tax cuts. Family-orientated tax cuts are a clear vote winner - so keen have the Tories been to decontaminate themselves that they threw away their USP. Look at Clinton, even he was elected on a promise of family-orientated tax cuts. The Cameroons have committed themselves to Gordon's spending plans for the first three years of government, so Ed Balls is going to argue that the sums don't add up. If that is going to be the battleground, the Tories can win on those terms.
The middle classes don't care half as much about the arithmetic as they do about the result. Balls and Brown are so out of touch with middle-England they don't seem to understand how much the tax burden is detested by the middle-classes, who know instinctively that there is government waste to be reduced. Tax is also the issue that swung the Daily Mail and The Telegraph back behind the Tories, The Sun is "loving it" too. The raison d 'etre of the Conservatives party is to reduce taxes, if they ever forget it they are finished.
90 comments:
Now watch the Labour attack dogs as they pour on the bile over the next week. Gordon Brown is desperate to hold the election before the economy's collapse becomes too advanced for even the BBC to ignore, but he needs the security blanket of a large poll lead. Personal attacks on the Conservative party leadership will be the order of the day, the keywords used will be Eton, privilege, wealthy parents, silver spoon and toff. Will the tactic work? It has in the past but I think a "time for a change" mood is building.
Ed Balls and Yvette Coopers sums obviously add up. About £27000 in allowances to help buy the house in London. Good to see young couples getting on the housing ladder though in their case its more like scaffolding.
better a toff than a lying cheating self interested pension robber
The "master tactition" Brown has now managed to trap himself in a position where he can only emerge unscathed if he does hold an election and then wins with a good majority. You can make your own minds up of how likely that is to happen...
There's been a palpable shift in the last few weeks. Brown has to go now, it will only get worse. Clinging on, admittedly for 3 years, is not good enough. There's the strong whiff of Major about him now.
Let the wake start now,- as long as we do not spend money that McStalin has left us pensioners with.
Prudence's next problem: capital flight.
O to be a fly on the wall of his bunker this morning.
Glad to see you are confirming that the best Cameron can do with his post conference bounce is to draw level with Brown...
As 'Murray Walker' would say when commentating.. "It is one thing to catch up with the car in front, it is quite another to overtake..."
Methinks Gordo's sat on the crapper thinking " Will I, Won't I. What would Blair do?"
I wonder what these polls would have been like if the partisan BBC and press aired/printed more of the Tory Conference?
Don't misunderestimate the utter disgust most members of the public felt when Brown's so-called troop withdrawals were revealed as a cynical piece of spin.
Brown tried to use the lives of British soldiers in a sickening stunt to gain political advantage. The British public will never forgive him for that.
Having been caught out spinning last week has Brown learnt his lesson. Not a chance. He is back out today spinning the Crossrail announcement for all it's worth.
Shouldn't the Transport Minister be announcing this?
No. Brown gets all the good anouncements and his Ministers have to take any flak that's about.
How will the Tories manage to make genuine tax cuts if they adopt Brown's continued privatisation of all public services? The public services cost more when supplied by the private sector, so the more privatisation there is, the more tax is needed to finance it.
Camus, who gives a flying fuck where the money comes from. The voters just want Inheritance Tax scrapped and wil leave it to the new Tory Government to finance it.
If it comes from rich foreign spivs then even better.
Geddit!!
For some time it has been clear the economy is going to be in trouble next year, so Broon has to go now. See Darling and martin Wolf in the FT today. In fact it could be a good election to lose, although that won't comfort Cameron.
As the credit crunch continues, the housing bubble is about to pop.
GordEnron's miracle economy built on £1.4 trillion of consumer debt (and taxing the spending of that debt to finance public sector splurging) is about to be revealed for what it is.
GordEnron in his 1997 budget statement: "I will not allow house prices to get out of control and put at risk the sustainability of the recovery."
I'm glad that the economic incompetent Brown will still be in power just as everyone starts to realise what he's done.
The UK economy will take decades to recover from the world's biggest debt burden, property bubble & the world's most uncompetitive workers (why hire some UK mug saddled with a £250,000 mortgage when there are 4 billion cheaper people to choose from?)
What I cannot understand is the Labour twats actually drawing attention to the economy with their "Gordon has delivered the strongest economic conditions" bullshit when everyone that looks at it comes to the conclusion that it's about to go completely tits up.
Guido you still haven't explained how you knew about Dave's spontaneous speech in advance and were even given an extract in advance (see earlier postings) - or are you still being spun!
It wasn't spontaneous Tom, doh!
It was delivered impressively though without an autocue and in engaging manner. Something "courageous" Gordon can't do.
Very true, but if the tories don't start hitting NuLab in debate, atrtacking their failures ruthlessly, the polls will still bounce back because the Tories will be seen as chicken.
Cameron has got to bring back adversarial politics.
anthonynorth.
I think this strategy depends on the attitude of the MSM doesn't it?
What so many of these idiots don't understand, & polls still don't reflect, is the change in the public's mood. I've spent years yelling at Question Time audiences as they've applauded every bit of Labour trickery. Now even these hand-picked crews are baying for left-wing blood. QT last night was a real eye-opener. Hislop his normal excellent self; Osborne effective, and allowed to speak, Ming useless, Kelly worse than useless. And the noise when GBs visit to the troops was questioned. It reminds me of something supposedly said at the execution of Marie Antoinette - "I was standing so close I heard the whisper of the axe".
Surely Brown is not going to be such an idiot as to call an election now? But then again, his own self-estimation may prove to be his undoing.
So Dave is an actor who can remember his words. So what doesn't Glenda have two Oscars.
As Charles Clarke pointed out, Gay Gordon lacks the courage to take tough decisions.
"he raison d 'etre of the Conservatives party is to reduce taxes"
Guido, why were taxes relatively higher under Thatcher than under Blair?
whilst nulab types in the scuzzy bits round the edges may or may not get off their backsides to vote for gordo, the whole of the rest of England are now so determined to drive a stake through his evil heart , that the Tories will not have a problem mobilising their vote.
Gay Gordon is no longer 'the clunking fist', but now 'the clucking fist': http://tinyurl.com/2u3r2y
If an election was called with neck and neck poll results at 38%, we'd have a Labour majority of about 5. So Guido I wouldn't get too excited about this.
I suspect that people will cotton on to what in practice Cameron's tax cuts will mean for the average middle-class family: sweet fuck all. If you have a house worth £400,000 you'll save £20,000.
This is a tax cut for the rich and Labour are going to hammer the Tories over this whenever an election comes. If the Tories think they can win on a platform for the top 10% (tax cut on share dividends, tax cut on stamp duty, tax cut on inheritance) they've learnt nothing from 3 general election disasters.
£3 bn - how many hosptials is that?
I did enjoy Ruth Kelly being torn apart ref. Flash's announcement in Iraq on QT last night. Her reply " Factually, it is correct there will be 1000 lees troops there by Christmas " had everyone in fits of laughter - the net effect is 0 from that already announced. Oh, and " It is right to go and see the situation and then decide" As Ian Hyslop said." Well, he pulled it forward a week, got off the plane and announced it. So he consulted whilst he was flying? This is just silly spin again"
It seems the electorate agrees.
"Guido, why were taxes relatively higher under Thatcher than under Blair?"
-> Because Thatcher didn't fiddle the figures so much with PFI, etc.
"This is a tax cut for the rich and Labour are going to hammer the Tories over this whenever an election comes"
Are we talking about the same Labour party that just increased the tax for the poorest people in the last budget, yet charges their non-dom donors like Mittal nothing?
Labour used to represent people. Mew Labour represents corporations.
The status of non-doms is being looked into, tax fell for people on the minimum wage in the last budget as well you know. For a tiny number of people there was a tax increase in the worst instance of £89.00 per year.
Still doesn't take away from my central point.
bhownagree.
So will Brown be a complete idiot not to call an election immediately? Please let us know, and Brown too if he needs any help deciding.
"The status of non-doms is being looked into"
Since 1997. Meanwhile non-dom donations (Mittal, Cohen etc etc) keep Labour afloat.
"tax fell for people on the minimum wage in the last budget as well you know."
No. It doubled because the 10% rate was abolished and replaced with a 20% rate.
"Still doesn't take away from my central point"
If you had one? Are you Sion Simon?
To bhownaggree at 11.21 -
No-one believes NuLab anymore - they've see through the deceit, spin and lies. Tuesday's 'Basra Spin Debacle' was Gorgons cataclysmic tipping point - the electorate will be baying for his blood shortly. Did you not see Question Time last night?
It's like the Wizard of Oz - the curtain has fallen to reveal that what everyone thought was magic, was just a nasty cranky old man pulling on the levers.
Don't bother wasting our time anymore - we're not listening.
They've been 'looking into' non-dom status for what, 5 years now?
Brown's tax take has doubled in nominal terms since he came to power. This is the same person who tells us inflation is 2%.
Global competitive currency devaluation has just started and the tax take is going to have to keep increasing now we're past North Sea peak oil.
Since Mew Labour stole the Tories clothes there isn't much to choose between them. We'd probably get a bit less public sector waste with the tories, but that's about it.
Bear in mind QT last night was from London, which is usually more vocal than the rest of the country.
But yes, I agree, the tide has turned.
PragueTory, my point being that cutting taxes for the top 10% does not win you a general election.
Are swing voters in Edgbaston, Medway, Milton Keynes, going to swap from Labour to the Tories over a cut in inheritance tax on estates over £350,000? No.
No mention of wealthy non-doms should omit Lord Paul (family fortune of £1.5 billion), who has offered to fund Gordon's snap election campaign to the tune of "as much as I can afford".
By all means have a go at Gordon for political stunts e.g. re-hasing old figures for troop withdrawals etc. But you would think the other parties never do this? Wasn't Dave visiting the troops to try & get a photo oportunity while his constituants were 6 feet under water!
It has been announced by the debt management office that the prebudget report will be next tuesday. This was one of the hurdles to get over before an election- most likley it will give a very spun view of the economy!
bhownaggree: But it will be noted that Labour are (once again) antagonistic to the rich - while in contrast many people aspire to own a house worth £400k-upwards and do not regard that as sinful.
Anyway, how can Brown bang his populist drum against the rich when he kisses the boots of Paul, Mittal, etc.
Incidentally, on the question of non-doms, who was chancellor 1997-2007?
bhownaggree.
If you are Sion Simon why aren't you out in your constituency preparing for victory?
When they sneer at 'Tories' they sneer at over 30% of the adult population.It should be pointed out time and again that their method of appealing to their core vote is through envy.Conservatives stand for aspiration.Labour 'stands' for spite.The 'respect' agenda should start with 30% of their fellow Britons.
"PragueTory, my point being that cutting taxes for the top 10% does not win you a general election."
But Labour thinks it can win by doubling tax for the bottom 10%?
And if you look at local election results in for example Edgbaston where Tories have won the last eight seats contested, Labour voters have already started voting Tory.
To bhownaggree, brown nose, brown tongue or whatever you're called -
THE GAME'S UP!
I'm sorry to hear Brown's bounce is over. I was hoping to see him bounce off into oblivion.
Ok, ok I'm joining the Conservatives. This rat knows when to bail.
£3billion could build a lot of hospitals, about a third as many as the £9billion estimated to have been wasted through the mismanagement of Brown's over complicated tax credit system. In terms of the big picture £3billion is pocket money and well worth the investment to rid aspiring families of this spiteful social engineering tax.
Not much good building new hospitals in any case when local A&E departments are being closed down all over the country (except in Labour marginals).
Alex 9.44 - "I wonder what these polls would have been like if the partisan BBC and press aired/printed more of the Tory Conference?"
As a Lib Dem, I would ask the same question... Thing is, we know that when the election comes, the Lib Dems pick up percentage points. It's amazing what fairer coverage does...
Labour stands for aspiration - the fact is the middle classes have seen the real value of their assets rise (faster than any other developed nation except Spain & Ireland) and people have seen their wages rise too.
The Tories have targetted their tax cut at the v. rich. I don't think this is the way to win an election - nobody has contested this.
When the electorate find out that Tory tax cuts are for the v. rich it will not play well. Whilst Labour's tax cuts (reducing the middle band of tax from 23p to 20p) though revenue neutral did at least not favour the v. rich over middle-income families.
I think it is bad politics - Labour have a week in the spotlight this week, the polls will head back our way. The central proposition remains: Brown vs. Cameron. And voters prefer Brown time and time again.
A good week for the Tories does not cover the fact that leading Shadow Cabinet figures just over a week ago thought they were heading for a change of leadership... It'll all melt down quite soon.
I'll still be voting Conservative though (Inheritance Tax cut is a winner )
"23p to 20p"
Actually 22p to 20p. Also, as our tax cut is to be paid by non-doms earning in excess of £100k pa our tax cut is progressive, unlike your jiggery-pokery which made the poorest the biggest losers.
Stop pretending to be me, I'm the real bhownaggree, a feckless fatuous windbag given to febrile histrionical posting, who the hell are you?
bhownaggree,
My mother bought a grotty flat in Slough in 1999, in a rubbish part of town. It's now worth over 250k, thanks to the housing market. My girlfriend's grandparents worked their fingers to the bone and now have a nice house in Essex. And yes, it's now over 250k too.
So are you saying that these people are 'v. rich'? Are you saying that the moment they die, the taxman is entitled to get a cut of something that's already been paid for? Is that really the social justice Brown Labour is advocating?
And what about the poor bastards on 10,000 and less a year - why are they now having to pay 20% rather than 10%?
You talk of bad politics, and I can't find any worse kind of politics beyond that of penny pinching and waste we've had to endure for ten long years. Brown puts ideology and control before common humanity.
Praguetory: when Labour came into power the basic rate of income tax was 23p, now it's 20p.
I'll be voting Labour, thanks.
I'm not Sion Simon, I'm really Simon Heffer.
thersites:
In both cases that you describe under Labour not a single penny of inheritance tax would be paid. The point is, the Tories are cutting taxes for rich kids who inherit £1,000,000 houses. It's completely indefensible. No one in the Labour party wants to penalise those who work hard to buy their own houses - in fact, under a Labour govt. more people than under the Tories own their own houses.
The tax simplification measure at the last budget did penalise some low earners to a maximum of £89 per year. It's regretable, but in the long-run makes tax simpler for everyone. The majority of people on low incomes gained due to the rises in child benefit.
The people who stand to gain from the £1m IHT threshold are those with elderly parents who own a freehold. Are there enough of them to swing an election? You bet there are. Almost any middle-class middle-aged person, in fact.
But I'll still be voting Conservative, we all know Brown shot himself in the foot by not cutting inheritance tax. Parties do become out of touch and arrogant when they've been in power too long. It is time for a change.
Rich said...
Guido, why were taxes relatively higher under Thatcher than under Blair?
Because Gordon has also had our pensions to spend!
Almost any middle-class middle-aged person, in fact.
Err, any middle-class person has a £1m house. Err, who really is out of touch...
Sorry,just to be completely fair.The Conservatives will free everyone from £300,000 UP TO £1000,000 from Inheritance Tax.Not just 'rich kids',sorry.
bhownaggree said...
I suspect that people will cotton on to what in practice Cameron's tax cuts will mean for the average middle-class family: sweet fuck all. If you have a house worth £400,000 you'll save £20,000.
Now isn't that just typical of a labour MP with his snout in the trough! £20,000 is fuck all
PS I was impressed by Dave's extempore speech, He really is far superior to Gordon, fluent, articulate and triuthful. He is a natural . Plagiaristic Gordon seemd flat and hollow in comparison didn't he?
bhownaggree, I see you're merrily spinning away like a proper NuLaborite. You lot just cannot help it can they? It's like drug! Do you wake up every morning, thinking 'I must tell more lies, I must tell more lies'?
It's not about rich kids inheriting million pound houses, it's about the families of ordinary, hard working people not having to shovel over even more money to a cash hungry state. Why should we continue to suffer this 'double taxation'? Thanks to Gorgons Ponzi economy pretty much anyone who owns a house will benefit from this tax cut.
I suggest you have a word with some of your lefty mates - they seem to have drifted off the 'Socialist message'. Start with the Gruesome Twosome Cooper-Balls's and their £27,000 a year allowances scam. Or maybe the Benn Clan and their family trusts. Or the Milliblands even - bit of a tax fiddle went on there, when the old man died. or the Mr & Mrs Mills and the mortgage fiddle. Good grief even the Great Gorgon and his 'wife' have been milking the system.
'Four legs, good two legs better...' - not any more mate, you've been rumbled.
bhownaggree! Its way past your bedtime!
Bhownagree - some of that £3billion would help our local hospital Trust who are £34million in the red this year, and who are therefore cutting back on senior nursing staff. And some of it could help the neighboring Trust, where the Maternity Unit is 50% understaffed because of debt.
"£20,000 is fuck all"
10 years ago, when Gordon Brown came to power, £20,000 was a lot of money.
Protect yourself from the currency debasement. Vote with your money, the only thing they care about. Buy Gold.
Plan B. Defer election. Blame coming economic meltdown on global downturn.
anonymous at 1:17PM -
Plan B Problem. After Basra 'stunt', no one believes spin and lies. Gorgon fucked,
Plan C. Call election and lose. Cameron gets blamed for 10 years of New Labour f**k up. Get back in in 2012.
bhownaggree,
In both cases that you describe under Labour not a single penny of inheritance tax would be paid. The point is, the Tories are cutting taxes for rich kids who inherit £1,000,000 houses...
Of course they'd pay more than a blinking penny! Under Labour, Inheritance Tax does penalise the 'hard-working' - now over 2.1 million homes are ellgible for the IHT grave robbery scam. Both examples I gave are vulnerable, given their location in the South East, so don't try to spin your way out of it.
Of course, there might not be so many 300k houses in Labour safe seats, but middle England is taking a pounding.
And for heaven's sake, don't try to moralise the penny-pinching - only Labour could come up with a 'deserving home owner'/'undeserving home owner' dialectic.
And what is wrong with 'rich kids' inheriting their parents' property? That betrays your inclinations: you resent success and see personal circumstances as expendable to some abstract greater good... Usually an inexpensive and ineffective one.
All of which probably explains why you think it's moral to mug low earners in the name of 'tax simplification' while trying to fob them off with extra handouts. In other words, you're taxing the poor and keeping them dependant at the same time. Simplicity indeed.
With a possible/probable election on the cards you will certainly see plenty of inverted snobbery Blears style from NuLab. Essentially they have run out of places to spin to and will emerge in their true colours. The angel of bigotry is abroad in the land - you can almost here the beating of his wings (With apologies to John Bright,1854)
I will not be leaving enough to pay inheritance tax, but I still think of it as a death tax, how anyone can justify this tax I just don’t know.
It’s a nasty vindictive tax,, born out of typical socialist thinking, ‘you’ve got it, I want it, I’m going to take it‘.
.
Rich said "Guido, why were taxes relatively higher under Thatcher than under Blair?".
Rich, can I have a toke on what you're smoking please, you're obviously out of your fucking tree...
Zorro
For me an increase from 10% to 20% tax-rate is rather a lot - you thieving bastard Brown.
Almost any middle-class middle-aged person, in fact.
Err, any middle-class person has a £1m house. Err, who really is out of touch...
You're just being obtuse. You don't need an estate of £1m to benefit from the raised threshold - you need an estate of £300k. And that includes savings as well as a freehold. Not an unreasonable benchmark of middle-class status for the elderly.
The middle class;retired(lost their pension after 40years) married;homeowners with kids at university or trying to get on the housing ladder whose elderly parents own property and investments over £300K(quite a fair few) they are the ones that Labour is losing the support of. They delivered the Labour victories of the last 3 elections but are starting to think what was once the unthinkable.
The Tories are electable again after a decade and it's no wonder there are several Labour MPs in marginal constituencies who are looking a little sick to-day
They thought they'd escaped by ditching Blair for Brown. Wrong! He was just the same old loser he always was.
"a nasty, vindictive tax" - which is why it is so beloved by the nasty vindictive party whose fall back position is always the politics of envy.
They really do not like it up 'em.
My dream is to see that class obsessed little bigot Blears burst into tears when it finally becomes clear that Gay Gordo's Big Tent is going to be kicked into touch when the scales drop from the eyes of the voters. Ignorant pixie.
"Labour stands for aspiration "
Yes, "what's yours is mine and what's mine's me own" you mean ?
Laced with all the nasty whinings of social envy and class obsession, even now in the 21st century ?
Bollocks.
The financial, social, mental and physical health of the country demands that this scum be voted out as soon as possible.
Cameron & his cronies conversion the death tax abolition cause is almost "Road to Damascus" like considering the rhetoric I was hearing from them even a year ago on the subject.
Now if Brown was a real opportunist he'd announce lifting the IHT threshold to £500K whilst keeping the non-dom flat rate tax (after all he did promise in 1994 to end non-domicile status). All the trolls on here would suddenly hate IHT and say how overdue this was and the BBC would herald this as a brilliant original idea.
But only Tories are opportunists. Right?
At last Dave comes out fighting, even as an "Old Labour" voter I was impressed by his speech at Conference. Brown is fast showing himself up as a shallow,bitter and somewhat pathetic character perhaps only now realising that through perfect timing Blair has once again stitched him up like a kipper.The whole New Labour house of cards is set to fall and good riddance to the whole shoddy pile of shit that it is.
Brown seems incapable of answering questions of any kind,coherant debate or hiding his deeply unpleasant side when rattled,if he calls an election he'll quickly become a liability to "New Labour".I don't want a Tory government but Tony and the gay mafia killed Labour and I'll gladly help to repay the compliment.I still think Hague would make a far better leader,he's suprisingly popular amongst my set of ageing Pinko "comrades" but at least Cameron's finally showing some balls and appetite for a ruck.
bhownaggree said...
£3 bn - how many hosptials is that?
Gay Gordon's lost more than £3 bn with his infamous "Brown Bottom" gold sell-off. Plus the estimated £1.3 bn he lost through tax credit fraud.
"The point is, the Tories are cutting taxes for rich kids who inherit £1,000,000 houses. It's completely indefensible."
Why is it indefensible to let people keep their own money? Who are you to come and long and tell them how to spend it?
"£3 bn - how many hosptials is that?"
I don't really care, I do not suffer from the belief that other people owe me a living and should pay for my healthcare whether they want to or not.
The conservitives have deliverd agood case for change to the way forward for Britain in the last week.The labour party should be trusted to deliver this policy change for the country,becaurse the torys can not be trusted on the subject of social justice. My big idea is to follow japans interst rate policy, that is abig cut in inerst rates, to help the strugling young home buyers.I WOULD bring back credit controles so lones would need a 30% deposit to bring back responsibile borowing. Also take pensioners off the means test, give a good pension,so theres less need to rely on saveing to servive.
"£3 bn - how many hosptials is that?"
if you want to play silly games how much has Iraq/Afgan cost eh? how many baby incubators would that buy? enough to put one in every house and train the owner in its use at a guess.over 6bil so far and rising.
c v barker
One day and pretty soon even yourself will understand that no British government or any other product of the ruling class, can be trusted at all.
Either with your life, your wealth, your family and most of all your social justice and individual freedom. Which are two things which never did exist for ordinary people since civilization began, and please take my word for this, never will.
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