Time for Tactical Decisions from CCHQ and Cowley Street
The LibDems are getting pummelled in the polls - this morning a YouGov poll has them down another 3% to 13% with the Tories unchanged on 33%. Guido finds it hard to believe the accuracy of this poll - with Labour at 44% that makes them more popular than in 1997 when they scored 43%. Not very likely is it?A hung parliament is still the most likely outcome of the next election whatever the polls currently say. The only way to ensure that outcome is to take seats off Labour, swapping Tory and LibDem seats will not change the government.
Is it time for them to consider tactical voting? Mike Smithson over at PoliticalBetting.com has made the case for this before, if you want to get rid of this government, vote for the party best placed to beat New Labour in your constituency. In Scotland that seems to have happened already, the business community has switched from the no-hope Tories to the SNP. In return the SNP has begun to talk more about "Enterprise Scotland" and is now polling even stronger than during the recent local elections.
The problem is that LibDem and Tory activists hate each other. They would not countenance any explicit instruction to vote for the other party. Often at each others neck in local government, the idea of a non-aggression pact is unpalatable. Rather than going into any protracted negotiations the Tories should just direct resources away from LibDem incumbents and into the battle in Labour seats. The LibDems political antennae would detect the shift, they would consequently be able to shift their more limited resources away from defending LibDem seats against Tory insurgents and towards attacking Labour incumbents.
Encouraging Tories and LibDems to work together is not easy, but there is one issue that is heartfelt by LibDems and Tories in their libertarian hearts - ID cards. Pushing ID cards up the political agenda would place Tories and LibDems on the same side of the barricades against an authoritarian government. Psychologically a useful pre-cursor to a post-election deal. If Tory and LibDem activists worked together on the NO 2 ID campaign they might even find their rivals more likeable. As Brown begins to sound more and more authoritarian, emphasising "Strength", "Britain" and "British jobs for British workers" the Liberal Democrats may realise they have a lot more in common with Cameron's liberal Conservatives than with Brown's ideology of state power. Ming may lean towards Brown, but the next LibDem leader is less likely to do so...
56 comments:
O Joy! The Liberal Democrats ( 'democrats' when it suits) are 'going down'! Does Inspector Knacker of the Yard know? Tasteless joke aside, it couldn't happen to a nicer party. The Libbies are essentially going to get destroyed because con/lab voters that supported them before are returning home. Plus the fact that the LD's stand for foxtrot alpha except opposing 'unpopular' government policies whilst secretly conniving to keep em in power! How Liberal, and how democratic!
That's just not going to happen, Guido.
We are not going to walk away from Romsey, Eastleigh, Solihull or put down the defences at Guildford or Newbury...and nor are the Libs.
Conservatives cannot trust the Libs. Ming openly stated that they colluded with Labour in the last election. There are too many scars to even consider this idea.
The dumb propping up the blind.....
Robinson's analysis is these polls should be taken with a pinch of salt and may not be representative. But by the way, Brown is more popular than Jesus, so please vote Labour.
It si said that only two things in life are certain - Death and taxes. (Though a friend of mine used to say 'Death, and a nurse').
In politics two things are certain:
1) The pools are bollocks
2) Conservatives HATE Lib Dems.
Tend to agree with mastiff, just can't see it happening. Politics is too emotive for such calculated and organised events to happen.
Good idea though to get behind the NO 2 ID campaign. There are thousands of local community projects having their funding frozen or reduced because of the local authority funding crises. Only an extra £1k - £3K would make all the difference to most of these. Show voters what it means to them on a local level and they are more likely to voice their disapproval.
sorry about spelling above...
Anon 11:15 has it right. We hate the Lib Dems - why ? Not because of their policies ( though of course we wouldn't vote for them ), but because of the underhand and unprincipled style of campaigning.
In the view of many Tory activists there is no hole dark enough and deep enough to throw the Lib Dem party machine into. ( Personally I'd add broken glass at the bottom. )
No, Simon, this is good shit here, from Guido. They're all cunts, career politicians. What else can they be ? And a pox on all their particular career vehicles, but even so. If the great white wanker gets in we're all fucked up the arse with abroken bottle -if you will forgive Stanislav's perhaps over-graphic metaphor.
Stanislav live in boney Scotland a place hitherto infested with verminous LibDemmery; they have been a pox since devolution and got a good kicking from Minority King, Alex Salmond, last time out; even so, they are squabbling like a load of spiteful big girls, much to the derision of even those who voted for them; should there be a snap election they'll get fucked up here. Tavish McTavish and Nicola Stephen, their bitches-in-chief a pair of utterly useless, inbred, web-toed cunts hissing and spitting at each other. So we Highland Poles have no love for Ming's ladymen, but even less for the Nazi-in-waiting,
If by uniting tactically the two other sets of scoundrel, layabout, coke-snorting, wife-beating, boy-renting parasites can deliver the entire world from a smug, victorious Brown, that'll be great. Pick up the pieces afterwards.
Well said, Guido, you're not just a foul-mouther reprobate after all.
This shows how little Guido understands about politics. The Lib Dems are second in more target seats held by Tory MPs than Labour MPs.
And they will stay second to Tories, because the Tories are going to do better than last time. Doh!
It also will make zero difference to the Labour majority if you did take a seat off the Tories. Have you grasped that?
Not sure I quite understand what you are driving at here, Guido.
You are saying that it is 'not very likely' that Labour have a higher share of the vote than in 1997.
But if Ming the Merciless is handing millions of his votes to them on a plate, surely the point is that such a thing is only too likely to happen ?
Tories voted for and can't be trusted on ID Cards, why should Lib Dems work with them?
Only one thing's certain - if in the unlikely event that the LibDems hold the balance of power Ming and his gang will be straight into coalition with Gordon quicker than you can utter Lib-Lab pact.
Any undertaking given by the LibDems not to fight a particular seat so as to oust the sitting Labour MP in a "quid pro quo" trade off at a General Election wouldn't be worth a "tinkers cuss".
Good idea but a complete "non-starter" !
I an election was held now I would not vote conservative.
I have no confidence in the leader Cameron.
I have always voted conservative.
I am over 70 .
YouGov consistently put Labour higher than all other polls by about 4 points:
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/polls/trends/voting-allpub-trends.shtml
They will have to stop surveying in Newcastle city centre.
But who gives a shit anyway? The big prize for Tories is just around the corner. Gorgon has trashed the economy so bad that no-one in middle-England will ever vote for him again - and his core vote is about to turn out for the BNP because they have been shafted by his immigration policies. Just wait until the shit hits the fan...
Of course it would be good to have a real radical Tory in charge when the revolution starts - someone in the Thatcher mould - got anyone in mind?
Gordon won't run in the Autumn. Do you think he really believes these polls? Do you think he really wants to risk another three years in power when losing would mean he would be one of history's laughing stocks?
Games are being played here - the Tory papers are putting Gorgon 10 points ahead whilst the Leftie papers are putting him only 3 points ahead. They pay for the polls to be conducted to give the results they want. The Leftie papers don't want Gorgon to run - they know he will lose. The Tory papers are mischief making....
Stanislav
Keep up the good work mate: it may or may not be bollocks, but it's certainly funny.
ttfn
Stanislav is a right giggle- must have watched 'mind your language' in the 1970's! What he is on- or on about- i haven't a clue- but at least the lad despises the LD's!
frank, fuck off you sad nulab troll !
I could not work with the Liberal Democrunts if my life depended on it.
mitch said...
Robinson's analysis is these polls should be taken with a pinch of salt and may not be representative. But by the way, Brown is more popular than Jesus, so please vote Labour.
There are signs Brown is turning into Jesus......His 'Stand up Stand up for Jesus' and 'Suffer the children to come unto me' speech contains just a hint.
Roll on Easter.
I have already suggested that Stanislav should be on Cameron's 'A List' but now I'm not so sure, as his English seems to have improved, and there are fewer foul swearwords than usual per line. Quite disappointing.
Back to the 'B List', Stanislav.
A hung parliament! Don't make me laugh.
We're going to get our asses kicked my friend.
Why?
Because we have the wrong policies and a shit leader.
Try not to over complicate things lovey.
EC
STANISLAV IS THE HEIR TO HITCH
Loved your posting,
vicious , plenty of sexual innuendo and lots of swear words.
Sorry that you have to live in Scotland)+:
as a libdem activist i would love to see us co-operate with the Tories more as they're far more liberal than Gordo.
sadly few of my colleagues share my enthusiasm...
...particularly cos our party is so south-centric and many of our marginals down there are against tories.
bloody southerners
But what about ID cards eh? Just think of the power we will have over the way people will live their lives.
Collusion between parties is very very illegal Guido.
I note that the toady programme on Pravda Channel 4 is pushing the idea of the gorgon running in November. Perhaps they know something we dont? The Tories appear to be on "Red Alert" for an election call as well; the Westminster Village usually leaks stuff like this between parties
The basic problem is this. If the Tories really want power as badly as Blair wanted power - then of course they must stoop to his form of politics and seize the middle ground. If they then want to retain power they must stoop to Blair's politics and piss about with meaningless policies, bribing the voters with money we haven't got and promising "no more boom and bust" and other lies until the cows come home.
Now I've never had much interest in political parties that play these kinds of games with the voting intentions of people of average intelligence and moderate ability. If the Tory party is the right political party for Britain then this will prove to be the case in the longer term - and when this happens the Tories should take power on THEIR OWN TERMS - not the terms of people of average intelligence.
Cameron was the right kind of politician for a political party eager to grab power at all costs. There is no need for the Tory party to stoop to such levels anymore. They were right all along. The economy is heading for a fall, and Labour with it. The people will be ready for a re-vitalised Tory party with a radical reforming agenda. In fact, they will be begging for such a political party to take power. Tories must get ready to give them what they want - and that means getting rid of Cameron first. He is now the wrong leader at the wrong time. The people know it, the papers know it.
Is it too much to hope that McStalin will believe these nonsense polls and "go for it"?
Guido, mon ami, the problem with the LimpDums is that they're totally untrustworthy. The tactics they regularly use in elections border on outright deceit by pretending to be liberal right wingers in the South where they're up against Tories and showing their more natural left-wing, authoritarian streak Ooop North and in Scotland where this plays well to the benefit-claiming classes.
The only thing they'd do with an offer like this is cheat and electioneer like crazy in run offs against Conservatives while allowing NuLiebour a free run in marginals against Tories.
Everyone knows they'd rather work with Socialists and have McBroon back in power with the chance of maybe being allowed inside his "big tent" and eventually getting their dream of PR and constant niggling membership of government through EC expansion and the eventual day when our system of democracy is determined to be not European enough (we only have to look at how we hold European elections to see what the future holds).
Nice idea in theory but totally crap in practice and we can but hope that the electorate actually engage brains before voting this time around.
Living in Tory seat which is a Lib Dem target (and where Labour don't get a look-in) I'm even more disenfranchised than I thought!
"Is it too much to hope that McStalin will believe these nonsense polls and "go for it"?"
I doubt it. He hasn't got much to gain. These polls are more aimed at the Tories because the papers have decided they want a Thatcherite radical in charge when the economy ends up in the toilet, not some limp Tory wet.
But take heart. When the voters have finally been made to pay for the mistake of voting for a socialist party the Tories will be able to do whatever they like. Remember how radical Thatcher was after Sunny Jim got kicked out? My guess is that the election after the economy goes bust will be the last for Labour, and will see the end of its cheerleaders at the Beeb too.
Stanislav not born in 1970s. But product of 1980s knee-tremblings between mother, poor teenage car factory worker and famous visiting English philosopher and gang-rapist, Jeremy Klaxon, come visit to collect freebie Polski car to give gardener back home, and praise up in Murdoch Times,like motoring journos do.Thieving, lying, shit-eating cocksuckers.
Lardman Klaxon make visit with bumfriend AAAAAA Gill, man who eat food and write about, useless fucking cuntjob, if ever, what a fucking tosser; oh, simper AAAAAA Gill, the salad was a little fucking limp and Dago waiters not so slim and attractive in arse as AAAA like and expect, but never mind, luncheon well worth three hundred pounds for AAAAAA and utterly delicious 14 year old rentboy companion, mmmm, scrumptious. In Stanislav country effete fucking parasites like AAAAAAA Gillcunt swing from lamppost. Birds peck eyes. Mmmm, delicious.
Dad Klaxon deny all, never been Polski says. Say not caught dead in Polski car, only own half million pound Mercedes and gold plated Ferrari, thanks to BBC license payers, queue-up to stand in shed and laugh like cunts at recycled joke: Oh, like my hair was on fire; Oh, so slow I was overtaken by continental drift; Oh, Birmingham like Berlin 1945. Oh, I'm so up myself, I could drink own piss.
Stanislav Granny, Mother Klaxon, raise afterbirth by mistake and call Jeremy. Have to write Paddington Bear, make ends meet, bribe school to accept grotesque bloated, slimy infant Jeremy and then bribe BBC to give job useless potbellied layabout. But no royalties to poor Polski grandson.
Stanislav come UK embarrass fat cunt motherfucker Klaxon. Learn english. Very quick. Make new friends; Mr Mad as Fish, Mr 45 Govt., M'sieu Calais; Mr City Trader, Mr Simon; Mr Pink Pantie Man; Mr Hitch: Mr Genghis et al and, of course, Lord Guido, famous belted Irish Earl and anarchist. Underneath all showbiz bollocks Klaxon, anyway, determined Liberal Democrat know-it-all bossyboots, degenerate bisexualist, like creepy Mrs Simone Hughes, want spank people and make ride bicycle. Cotswolds is crawling with them.
ps Is Lady Elspeth Ming really model for pushy jumped-up social climber Hyacinth Bucket?
The LibDems are just too stupid to acknowledge that
(i) they will never get a working majority and
(ii) will never become the Official Opposition and
(iii) their only hope of any relevence in the next billion years is if they all put their shoulder to the wheel with the Tories and get Gordon into a minority Govt. For this they have to shoot Ming and replace him with someone who isn't so snug up Gordon's capacious arse. Someone who is happy to jointly point out with the Tories the failings of the past decade of Labour Govt. But they won't do that. Because the only way they can reach orgasm is by thinking of keeping the Tories out of power....
I did that You Gov poll. I was one of the people who said they'd vote for Gordon Brown. In fact that was a lie. I wouldn't dream of voting for Gordon 'Boring' Brown but I wanted some way to convey to David Cameron that I was pissed off with him.
What the LDs need is another Lloyd George - somebody who knows he's a man - and can INSPIRE people (unlike Asquith Ming).
desperate dan, I also massaged Gordon's ego on that poll. I was hoping to convince the bugger to go to the country, where everyone can then give him a good kicking.... Hahahaha.....
anon@2.57
still, it's a bit of an expensive way to improve on "asquith ming" don't u think - 600,000 trench dead for a failed lib policy. Suppose if they were ALL libdems we'd have to consider it.
Anyone got a safe seat for Stanilav?
Yes of course it would make sense for libdems and Tories to campaign for civil liberties. The trouble is, most Libdems are Toryphobes.
Hating Tories is just about the only acceptable prejudice left, and quite impervious to reason. Otherwise rational people will listen to a list of Tory policies, agree with most of them, and then say "but I hate Tories", as though this were a statement of moral certitude, like "I hate apartheid" or "I hate paedophilia". I see no hope.
I cannot really see Normski Baker,Gay boy Hughes,Carmicheal,Foster,Teather and the rest of the cryto-Communist Beveridge Goons getting into bed with the Tory's.They are more leftie and statist than 'King Brown
However
Oaten,Taylor and a few others from the Orange Book Club JUST might defect-seeing as the Fib Dem's have been at each other since Drunken Kennedy got kicked out of the leadership I think the herbivours are getting restless.
Hold that thought.
There must be some liberals left in the Liberal party surly.
All liberals will one day have to come together to stop this Fascist plague from infecting the whole world.
So NOW is as good a time as any.
The Conservative party needs REAL liberals to see the writing on the Wall and help them save this country from becoming a hell on Earth.
If Brown says Briton or British 100 times in a speech. Cameron should say liberal or libertarian 200 times. Some members of The Liberal Party might start bothering to find out what the misused word means.
If they still think the Liberal party is credible they should vote Fascist left which is what they are and stop confusing the voting public for no worthwhile constructive reason.
I did the Yougov poll too,presuming it's the online one.It didn't appear biased in any way.However,many of those who are registered with Yougov are also members of other cashback survey sites,so there may be an imbalance of people who are struggling to get extra dosh.They may well lean towards Labour and skew results as a consequence.
How about changing the "British" on that mock-up Brown identity card to "Scottish"?
Conservatives backed ID cards and do not care about civil liberties. They can fuck off!
@allan:
I think you will find that whilst the Tories tentatively backed ID cards when they were first floated as an idea when Michael Howard was in charge, they have consistently rejected the plans since David Davis became shadow home secretary and in fact David Davis has already written to the potential suppliers of ID cards and equipment to let them know that a future Tory government would scrap them.
Off topic, but Stanislav- if you want to run over cyclists (Liberal Democrats) then drive to Uffington on a weekend! The amount of daft c*nts cycling round there is frightening! Not only cyclists to contend with- f'n horse boxes too! And daft f'n truck drivers! Minutes of fun to be had avoiding (or in your case not) potential death situations! Just as well there's a few pubs in Uffington- if you make it there in one piece!
anon 10.00 - "tentatively?" the cunts lined up and fucking voted for it! Who cares what they've done since? They proved they can't be trusted, they don't have any instinct for liberty.
allan
Stop trolling and fuck off back to the Respecthomepage .
Oooops I forgot you lefties havn't got a decent site.......
Allen
They have proved nothing of the sort IMO.
In 18 years a few illiberal things did take place I grant you that. Which myself and my chums at the libertarian Alliance objected to as loudly as we could. But no one listened then and only a few more are now.
However we have had 10 years of Labour which indicate strongly that as far as liberty is concerned ALL BETS ARE OFF.
Gordon Brown is only playing at it at the moment, you have seen nothing yet.
When his self made financial crisis does eventually arrive at a time of his choosing. Then and only then will we fully understand what Gordon Brown and his slightly remodeled 'New Fascism' is all really about.
Although a quick re reading of Orwell's 1984 would be a helpful guide.
The Conservative party is a conservative party it is not The Liberal party or a liberal party.
But it has more libertarian and therefore liberal blood in its little finger then the Liberal and Labour party have left in there entire collective bodies.
Which is a very sad indeed, but still just about TRUE fact of British political life.
If you believe like myself that the the Conservative Party is not Libertarian enough, and sometimes by a long way. Then the only democratic option you have left is to join the Conservative Party and fight like hell to correct its slide into Authoritarian corporate Socialism.
Other options include ignoring the imminent death of Britain as we know it, along with its 750 year old liberties, praying for deliverance which will never come, or leaving the country ASAP.
Which is very much exactly what Gordon Brown wants us and many others like us, to do.
The only people who could object to ID cards are those who have something to hide!
I suspect there are a few (rightly) embarrassed Tories making bluster here...
I'm all for ID cards, they will prevent terrorism and illegal immigration, and they will make us safer on the streets.
They definitely won't be used to spy on us or share our private data with companies, no sir!!
Next cunt that says nothing to hide nothing to fear, print yer name and address ya prick!!!
Agree that we should leave Lab/Lib marginals to see if Libs can against the odds take a few more seats off ghastly Gordon. But not to leaving our marginals against Dippy Libs. DLibs have won by targeting where they can win, we must do the same. ID cards is a good issue, but so is Europe. No more votes for us in climate change we have ticked the boxes and can leave it there. The reality is that taxing parking is never going to win votes.
With regards to ID cards, people commit fraud largely by lying about theuir circumstances, not about who they are.
Supposing I'm a terrorist but todays Im not planning on blowing anybody up,walking down the street and I'm stopped, there are two scenarios...either I have a card or I dont...If I do, I showit to Plod and he lets me go...If I dont...well he has to ask for other ID...and if that is acceptable then why do I need an ID card.
The Only other scenario is that I dont have any other ID...so he either lets me go....or takes me to the station for Identification...
Now there are 60Million People in the Uk, at anyone time, 1 Percent will have lost their ID cards....
So what does Plod do with people without or who have forgotten their ID cards....In order for the system to work, they must have alternative ID (In which case why do I need an ID card) Or..anyone without ID MUST be taken in to custody in order for it to work....Now its far far far more likely that the person is innocent than he is a real Terrorist, so Plod ends up wasting many hours trying to get suspect into station for Identification...when he should be on the Beat...THE ONLY benefit of this systen is it presents an opportunity to fine people for not having an ID card...
Logically It can Only be a money making scheme dreamt up by some Buisness collegue of one or more MP's....Just like Speed Cameras...
Have I missed anything...
Oh yes, If youve got a few Mins watch the video...
http://www.stopthenorthamericanunion.com/TwoPeas.html
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