Opinion Polls versus Actual Votes
Guido just stuck even more money on the Tories being the biggest party post-election. Note the bet terms carefully - the biggest party. The prices have admittedly moved further against the Tories since last month when Guido stuck £50 on Betfair. Guido now has a few hundred on 'em at prices up to 3.5, which seems too generous to resist. Crazy?
Last night the Tories took a seat off Labour in Sunderland, elsewhere in Dover there was a big double-digit percentage swing to Cameron, in marginals Labour lost votes. The Tories will also get a bounce from next week - despite the BBC trying desperately to develop a narrative of disillusionment and more defections - which should move the betting prices.
Why take the biggest party bet? Four reasons; Scotland and boundary changes are going to hurt Labour, thirdly the Ashcroft marginal machine is where the real battle is, not in Labour's heartlands where traditional voters disillusioned by Blair can return to Labour without making a blind bit of difference. Finally, when politics re-starts for real in parliament, Gordon's big-tent gimmicks will be forgotten in that adversarial atmosphere.
Last night the Tories took a seat off Labour in Sunderland, elsewhere in Dover there was a big double-digit percentage swing to Cameron, in marginals Labour lost votes. The Tories will also get a bounce from next week - despite the BBC trying desperately to develop a narrative of disillusionment and more defections - which should move the betting prices.
Why take the biggest party bet? Four reasons; Scotland and boundary changes are going to hurt Labour, thirdly the Ashcroft marginal machine is where the real battle is, not in Labour's heartlands where traditional voters disillusioned by Blair can return to Labour without making a blind bit of difference. Finally, when politics re-starts for real in parliament, Gordon's big-tent gimmicks will be forgotten in that adversarial atmosphere.
52 comments:
WEhat's the odds that DC won't be Tory leader for the next election?
Guido - you are as ever spot on. I have been saying for months that it makes no difference what Flash's poll leads are - they will all vote in the places they only vote Labour anyway. In Scotland, however, the story will be different. The SNP is trouncing everything in sight and Wendy Alexander is, if it were possible, worse than Jack McConnel. By the way, his wife Bridget is fantastic - if Labour wants to get back in Scotland they could do worse than stick her out front.
Ming's minions will go nowhere - their seats will drop like a stone.
So the bet is good, whenever the elction is
anonymous - oh yes he will
ha ha - it's people like you that keep's us over at politcalbetting.com in the money.
Sunderland votes Tory? Gordon should be very afraid.
Of course if Gordon is seen to bottle it now, it will become plain that he did not believe the polls either. The next couple of weeks will prove interesting.
If I had any money to bet, I would bet on turnout being below 50% at the upcoming election.
Speaking as a Labour supporter, I agree it's a good bet. I've been saying for weeks that Brown shouldn't risk it, and these local by-election results show that the national polls are presenting a highly misleading picture.
As I keep saying the one's to watch are the key target seats. Forget about the 11% leads and "Brown's Bounce". Labour are gonna suffer significant damage in Scotland and the pollsters are going to be remembering 1992 when they were also just a little out in their predictions.
As Gordon owes a lot to Kinnock might as well remember that wonderful call to the faithful at the last Labour Election Rally at Sheffield Arena in that campaign " "Well, awwwllll rrriiiight!! Wur awwlllrrriiiight !
I think Gordon's gonna get a nasty surprise if calls an autumn election. He could be left with the worst of both world's - a hung Parliament at Westminster and a significant number of his Scottish MPs replaced by the Scottish Nats.
Oh happy times for Gordon - the Heir to Thatcher(That really smarts in the North and over the border so keep at it Gord !)
Portsmouth, Nelson Ward (in Labour marginal): Labour hold, no swing whatsoever to Tories.
Corby, Lloyds Division (Corby is the Tories 28th target) - Labour hold with massive 700 majority.
Dover, Maxton, Elms Vale & Priory Ward: Labour hold - Labour marginal in Parliamentary marginal.
Dover Town Division: Labour Hold - again Labour marginal in Parliamentary marginal.
Guido, which Tory Shadow Cabinet member was heard to say to an old friend after a TV interview last week, "We're fucked, we're absolutely fucked. I don't even know what Cameron stands for anymore".
We'll see cooler polling results next week, perhaps Labour 5% ahead maybe lower. Gordon should still call an election - ideally. Remember, Labour won last time with a 3% lead. Sure, boundary changes make it harder, but I'd rather see another 5 yrs of Labour govt. with a majority of 40 than allowing pundits like Guido to bore on for another year.
Oh, and for anyone tempted to follow Guido's betting advice - remember his Alan Johnson betting advice. I lost £400.
Spot on as usual. Scotland will settle it for Brown. Labour cannot win without a lead in Scotland because they do not have a majority in England. While all Dale does is promote his book you are on the ball. No election.
Guido has a point. Labour's poll leads are on the back of volatility and swing between the Labour/Libdem voters, that and a big surge of previously non voters at the 2005 GE.
Lets see how many of those lazy gits get out on a cold dark November day to vote.
Conservatives voters are not switching to him, and the fact that he is trying to turn himself into a Tory Tart rather than a Labour socialist or bearded sandal wearing Libdem is the big clue.
bhownagree.
Your master would not want to win on a decreased majority, so I feel safe in discounting your analysis.
Thank you Guido. I needed cheering up after reading Ian Dales' depressing Do or Die take on Tory hopes for next week. Fellow gentlemen; don't forget to throw some comments back at the BBC next week; when their coverage becomes so obviously biased. I fear we have New "New" Labour windbag Naughtie next week. Bejesus.
Mori survey into black and ethnic minority attitudes to voting and to politics at the 2005 general election : of those who voted, 58% chose Labour, 10% Conservative. (link)
Brown/Labour just have to continue with mass immigration and make England more and more unbearable so that Conservative voters emigrate. In 2005 the Conservatives lead over Labour in the popular vote in England was 50,000 votes.
The constituency changes don't come in for a while yet so if the election were called say next Tuesday then it would serve as a further boost to Labour.
That is great news! Looking forward to the Conservative Party setting the agenda again over the next week and on. The clunking fist can keep stealing all of our ideas but we have so many policies to come out he will end up looking like a fruit loop if he is not careful.
His copycat speech is coming back to haunt him, his promises on crime and health are aspirational nonsense without proper conservative reform.
It would be folly for him to call an election. A 4 week campaign is a long time. The old hats in his party know this which is why they are advising him against.
I am an upbeat Conservative at the moment.
P.s If Labour do call it now they may avoid the full wrath of our marginal seats campaign.
What's it gonna be - come on then!
I couldn't even read bhownabullshit's comment it was so boring and pointless, like his party, boom boom!
"The constituency changes don't come in for a while yet so if the election were called say next Tuesday then it would serve as a further boost to Labour."
Dan, WRONG. The boundary changes are now in place and will be used in the next GE when ever it is called.
and this after weeks of the bbc selflessly promoting the great leaders cause.
oh dear, did the tory party put you up to this guido. this really is a depserate defense. look at the local results from the week before - all very good for labour. keep reaching for that rainbow, you idiot.
it truly shows how really desperate the tories are now to scratch out ANY good news, a council by election win in sunderland, on a very low turnout. and a cllr in brent, who no ones heard of defecting from lab to con. hardly a quentin davies, nor a bercow, or a rumour about howard becoming labour. nor is the local election results in any way as good as labours gains last week, and the weeks before that. but, keep deluding yourself if it makes you feel better.
also, slight of hand in sunderland saw the tories win. the tory candidate didn't exactly stand on a cameron platform, nor really as a proper tory. see...
http://www.sunderland.gov.uk/Public/Editable/Themes/CityCouncil/corporate/elections/washingtoneastbyelectionresult27september2007.pdf
"local conservative" is like saying "independent conservative", and on a 27.6% turnout. will cameron be saying, go home and prepare for government - think not.
bhownaggree said...I'd rather see another 5 yrs of Labour govt. with a majority of 40.
I'm sure you would son, but with a majority of only 40 I'm sure you won't keep your seat. I told you to keep your head down...now everybody knows that your'e that prat on Guido nobody will vote for you. I told you to be careful playing with the big boys! I told you when I kicked you out I was going to let your room.....too late now for you to come back snivelling now......see if Gordon's got a closet for you
The Bournemouthberg Rally with its hubris, cheap populism and smug self-satisfaction was like watching a re-run of Kinnock’s ‘Sheffield Wednesday’ - Labour have truly fucked it. Even the BBC was distinctly icy to Straw’s club-a-hoodie bollox. And are we really supposed to believe that boss-eyed geek has stepped in four times to single handedly thwart robbings, muggings and street beatings like some latter-day fucking Charles Bronson ? With the help of his Special Branch protection unit, maybe. Keep wanking over Condi Rice you sad, fantasizing prick.
Within days of Brown calling an election international currency speculators would begin a sustained attack on sterling which would see UK interest rates doubling and billions spent by The Old Lady on, unsuccessfully, propping up the pound.
Go for it Mr Brown, there's big money to be made here though it would leave your reelection ambitions in tatters.
Jack Straw used to be the Demon Headmaster - so maybe he hypnotised all those villains he caught? Just a thought...
The press are looking more closely at these incidents where Straw claimed to have been a "have-a-go-hero". It seems that the facts are considerably at odds with what he claims.
More in the papers this Sunday.
Didn't Jack Straw want to "have a go" at the late Fiona Jones?
"Hero" wasn't quite the word I had in mind...
It will be interesting to see how Brown performs in the Commons -- so far he's largely managed to escape that arena. To date he's managed to bathe himself in a sort of glow; the feeling one gets from a really good dump (with acknowledgements to David Mamet's Glengarry Glenross), the heap of cooling and unwanted faeces being of course the former occupant of No. 10.
Bias BBC:-
"The Conservatives have won a by-election victory, taking a seat from Labour on Sunderland Council.
It was one of nine by-elections held. With one result outstanding, Labour retained six seats and the Tories one.
BBC political correspondent Sean Curran said analysis of the eight contests suggested that nationally the Tories should have a lead over Labour of 6.2%.
But he said polls did not reflect that, a fact Gordon Brown would consider when thinking about an autumn election."
The last two paragraphs are /mind boggling/. The Tories, in an ACTUAL ELECTION, have a swing of 6.2% in their favour, but THE POLLS DID NOT REFLECT THIS, the obvious implication being that the OPINION POLLS are more valid/important/real than an actual FUCKING ELECTION.
Who believes these opinion polls have any bearing on the reality of an election result anyway?
I suspect (no in fact I'm fucking positive) that lots of tories are responding to opinion polls that they would vote labour/liberal because DC has pissed them off (with Grammar schools, continuation of labour's high taxes etc) but they would no more do so than bite off their own penis'
Zorro
Did or did not brave Jack the Lad also "have a go" at Oona "I'll do anything to get a safe seat" King? Though rumur has it she was willing unlike the late Fiona Jones.
Guido, what's with the lame CCHQ propaganda? "Swings to Cameron..."????
After their crap showing in last night's by-elections it's amusing to see Brown's fuckwitted trolls angry, confused, and full of fake bravado on here, politicalbetting.co, dale and the rest of the blogosphere.
You sad bastards are shitting yourselves today and so is your snot-eating, deranged excuse for a leader.
Ah... Jack Straw that aptly named scourge of Pinochet, who never got over his 5 seconds of fame as a student activist - another profession ideal for forming the this administration of cloud-cuckoo-land, self-regarding halfwits.
A vainglorious popinjay whose sole contribution to the Nation has been...anybody?
What do we know of his delightful son these days. Doing some good somewhere surely, like prick like asshole.
Anonytwat at 11.54: "Labour cannot win without a lead in Scotland because they do not have a majority in England."
A complete lie you ignorant twat - Labour has a majority of 43 in England alone!
There are 59 MPs in Scotland, compared to 591 in England. At the last election, in England alone:
Lab had 286 MPs in England
Con had 194 MPs in England
LDim had 47 MPs in England
plus two independents
Check your facts before spouting off!
And don't forget:
England has an awful Labour government because England voted for it
...regardless of what happened in Scotland.
I have fucking had enough of this bullshit.
C'mon Labour trolls if you are hard enough.
If you think the new great helmsman is the greatest PM since time began. A political genius of unparalleled proportion with swooning voters sprinkling rose petals in front of him wherever he walks then call the fucking election now. TODAY
I'm totally fucking bored out of my mind listening to trolls, labour ministers and pundits fretting about whether to go for the election or not.
You lot are like my teenage daughter fretting about whether Dan from Home Ec fancies her or not.
I hope Broon calls it on November 1st and it fucking pisses it down all day so all the labour voters stay at home watching Jeremy Kyle and and Brown gets his arse truly kicked.
His embarrassment would be the greatest political moment since Thatch walked into No.10
If Gordy does decide to hold an early election he is not going to be able to rely on his current strategy of waiting for the Dutch to say NO to the Treaty on his behalf.
If he goes to the Country on his current policy of no referendum he is going to be stuffed by Middle England.
If he changes current policy by saying yes - then he is going to look like an unprincipled chicken - again ripe for stuffing.
Can't wait!
The new electoral boundaries are in place now - so why can Brown be rushing?
It's a pity that Cameron is sooo hooked on the 'Environment'. The scientific evidence for Global Warming is not as conclusive as many are lead to believe. As for banning ordinary light-bulbs - what typical NuLabour stalinism. There are light fittings that will not take the so-called low energy bulbs. I have never heard any environmentalist add up the total cost of making and transporting these bulbs. Also don't forget to factor in the replacement cost for premature failure. This factor is because switch-on is the most stressful time for ANY bulb - the current surge - and the bulb is most likely to fail. Hence they are not so clever an investment. I bet Zac does not understand that.
What's the second reason for betting on the Tories??
Headlines coming soon to a paper near you.
"BROWN BOTTLES IT"
Or is it more likely to be on page 10
underneath an advert for Sanilav?
"......Brown is just getting on with running (from) the country."
Andrew, mr check your facts, thanks for that lovely BBC link which clearly shows that Labour have managed to fuck with the boundaries and whatever else they can to give themselves unfair advantage in any election.
I urge everyone to check Andrews link and examine the figures closely from the last election in England...
Although the Tories won more votes in England, Labour won nearly 100 more seats with less votes. This clearly demostrates the lack of any real democracy in our (fucked) country..
Zorro
--
i think nu labour are in for a surprise , gordon has played a good hand , keeping those policies close waiting to see what the conservatives are offering , trouble is his faithfull now see the labour brand as being in trouble in that it stands for plagarism.
this is underming the core vote and hollowing out the party. ming is waiting to scoop all the disaffected wanderers.
gordons double bluff whilst clever , has now made him look weak add to that the ever worsening situation of going back on a manifesto pledge.
its no election this autum which he thinks will make his mandate more acceptable later on , if i were cameron i would have a light conference and then start on the list when parliment opens , no one would blame him for playing safe , let gordons financial woes make more of the population feel cheated , wipe labour off the map in 9 months time (june i think)
thanks
the partys over
I think there could be a full blown finacial crisis by June next year, which is what matters in the real world, and which will destroy Labour for a generation. Just look at the figures coming out of the US on housing - and we haven't even started yet. Even the papers are carrying stories of Credit Card compnaies cutting limits. JUst wait until all those cheques to them start bouncing as well.
That is the best investment you have ever made.
It has become clear to me that David Cameron is the next SELECTED prime minister of what will be left of the UK by then.
Not human reptiles but potentially just as dangerous.
I doubt the snot gobbler will risk an election, he's a coward to the core.
Good for fuck all except shitting.
oh dear
gordon in your quick success on turning tory heads , well you did and for a brief period they were worried that you could pull it off .(an election win that is)
but now look whats happening camerons call on your bluff , tories voters now saying lack of response is weak, you see what happens when you decieve the british people and they find out
you run the risk now of conning both nu lab and conservative voters , youve set up one hell of fight now . should have been honest tut tut .
thanks
the partys over
Guido, let's face it your previous efforts at putting your money where your gob is have singularly failed to make anyone except the bookies any richer.Sadly, as a Tory, unlike Cameron who isn't one, I can't see this one paying off for you either.
Most Tories are ecstatic that Blair has gone. Any Tory will tell you (as much as it might hurt) that he was unbeatable. Something that cannot be said of Brown. He is completely beatable. Blair would not have dithered. He would have gone for it in an Autumn poll.
Brown on 44%?--more than Saint Phony in 1997?--the last 10 years have turned a country that was already in trouble into an open air toilet with arrogant tyranny quite possible in a decade or so. 44%--Bullshit. Even with an idiot like Cameron as the Tories leader don't underestimate the sheer hatred of NuLab that is out there.
Also Brown would have to break his campaign to slime over to euroland if the sell out is to be signed on time.
Last but not least a Scottish meltdown is on the cards with the Nats doing great business--esp if Scots Tories and Lib Dems take their chance to vote tactically--first in a long time--McBroon might find himself in real trouble--just losing is not the only bad outcome for him--a hung Parliament or a tiny majority that a few rebs could wipe out would be just as terrible to this evil deceitful control freak
On the subject of defections from Conservative to New Fascist Labour.
Has anyone noticed the type of Tory's the New Fascist Labour party have been attracting?
You guested it, Fascist Tory's.
The quicker these types leave the better for the Conservative Party and its otherwise unrepresented people.
If liberal or libertarian Conservative MP's were leaving to join Fascist Labour. The National Party that is supposed to represent Conservatism would be in terminal decline and not ever worth saving again.
Fascist Labour are now talking like the reactionary authoritarian Fascist far left wing illiberal bastards Party, it always was going to be after 3 terms in power.
Cameron has so much room to move more liberal now, its almost embarrassing. The Lib/Dems should be showing no more then 10% by now and falling.
However all this is academic BECAUSE
IMHO
GB is allowed to be in power for one reason. That is to deliver us fully chained into the US of Europe by stealth, and no coming back.
After Brown and Blair have completed their mucky deed. Cameron will be the next selected prime minister of what will be left of the UK.
I'm trying to work through all the factors that will influence the outcome of a November 1st election... (I've used "+ve" to mean more Labour seats, "-ve" for the opposite.)
a. Gordon instead of Tony: +ve. Can he be attacked effectively during a campaign? There's plenty to attack, but the mood seems to be "Better the devil you know" rather than "It's time for a change." (And he is a change anyway.)
b. David instead of Michael: -ve. Although I'm not a great fan of the man, I think he's capable of a great campaign, or at least one that's better than the last shambles. Labour are merciless though, so the chances of getting through to November 1st with nothing going wrong are pretty slim.
c. Dark nights: -ve? Holding the election after the end of BST will cut turnout especially among carless voters.
d. Boundary changes: -ve.
e. Problems with the electoral roll: -ve. Actually I'm not sure. Most of the people currently missing from the electoral roll are potential Labour voters, but that hasn't stopped Labour winning huge victories. The problems this year may have more effect on the Tory vote, since people who've moved home (including students) are more likely to be potential Tory voters.
f. Going too soon: -ve? Gordon's bound to get some flak for wasting money on an election, but attacks based on such procedural matters usually bore the electorate so I don't think much breath will be wasted on this issue.
g. State of the Parties: +ve? The parties are virtually in the same state now that they were at the last election, so why shouldn't the result be the same? Labour still has its ultra-effective party machine while the Tories still have their aging, confused and lacklustre support.
h. Weak LibDems: +ve. Tories gain 15, Labour gain 5.
i. Other parties (England): -ve. Calling a snap election will seriously dent the vote for minor parties. This should help consolidate the Tory vote in marginals.
j. Other parties (Scotland/Wales): -ve. The SNP is likely to gain a bit, but almost entirely from the LibDems.
Changes to Labour majority:
a +60 b -40 c -10 d -20 e 0 f 0 g 0 h +10 i -20 j -4
total: -24
which gives Labour a solid 40-seat majority, and Guido praying for a miracle.
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