Guy Fawkes' blog of parliamentary plots, rumours and conspiracy: SNP Surge 15% Ahead of Labour in Scotland
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Friday, August 10, 2007

SNP Surge 15% Ahead of Labour in Scotland

The SNP in power have not performed as disastrously as Labour's pre-election scaremongering depicted. Remember the dire warnings of capital flight and businesses re-locating? Which explains why in office their poll ratings have surged - expectations were so unrealistically low.

A lot of Scottish Labour MPs will be very worried by the prospect of an early election in Scotland... no "Brown bounce" in to be seen at home...

53 comments:

St George said...

yep Labour lies in Scotland have been seen as just that.
Salmond and co are storming through leaving Brown clunking in the distance..
If the English press were as aware of the positive transformation underway in Scotland they would realise just how poor Westminster is still being led...
oh and did i say the return of the 1707 powers is just around the corner

more vulgar than a vulcans vulva said...

So, we can pretty much rule out any Tory revival in Scotland forever.

There'll never be more than 3-4 Tory seats in Scotland ever again - on a good year.

Instead, we will have our very own "Bloc Quebecois" in Westminister. Composed of bitter, offensive and chippy Scottish nationalists who are so up themselves I want to hit every one of them in the face.

Scottish independence is teetering on the "inevitable" point.

Never thought it would come to this..

Anonymous said...

Another success for the devolution in Scotland !

And don't forget the "West Lothian" issue bubbles away in England.

It all seemed such a good idea in '97. Another failed policy to be blamed on Blair !

more vulgar than a vulcans vulva said...

Can I just add - I hate Scots.

The ones that live down here are ok, but the rest are a bunch of fucking cunts. They really are.

Miserable arrogant anti-English wankers.

Why don't I want independence?

Because they'll get even WORSE.

Smug high-horse fuckwits sniping from the sidelines as 'England' has to deal with (and pay for) all the complex military and diplomatic problems of the world which they do not. They'll take the opposite position just to piss us off.

You'd better believe it.

Other reason? I like the union jack - it's a nice flag.

St. Georges cross irritates me almost as much as the celtic dickwads st.andrews cross.

Kafka said...

Totally, utterly, completely hoist on their own petard.

I can feel a bout of schadenfreude coming on.

St George said...

hey vulgar vulcan
you're the one sounding chippy and offensive
the nats they are just very chipper :-)

As Scotland's powers return to Scotland Westminster will be free to govern itself just like the French and Germans without any help from the Scots:)... oh cheer up vulcan

St George said...

and for anon
from a unionist point of view it was a good policy in 1997
as Scotland would be independent today otherwise
See devolution is just independence for slow learners
but people learn and the independence tide grows:-)

on the plus side you can cross the border and get cheaper fule in Scotland post independence as they do in Ireland :-)

Matthew Scott said...

the graphic looks like 16% though...

twatinthehat said...

Nah, support for independence is never higher than ~30% here, plus there is all the English cunts who have emigrated here. Very nice they are too, better than the Weegies. Come a proper election to a proper parliament I can't see the SNP making much headway at the expense of Labour. But the Lib Dems are probably in the shit and I can see both SNP and Labour wiping their arses with them.

Anonymous said...

Excellent, now the Scots are adopting the sensible course we can get England back again.

Where will that leave "our" wonderful Muzzies? High and dry, high and dry. They ain't English that's for certain sure

english nationalist said...

I think its great that the Scots look like going it alone and I for one wish them all the luck in the world! Its far better to have a friend than an unwilling chained partner(union) on our border. Only the issue of the border regions and the Islands need to be cleared up as there will be many there who wish to remain within the English nation and if Alex can clear that up and he looks clever enough to do just that, then the long overdue breaking of the Union act will soon be here! Hooray for Scotland and three big cheers for our brother in arms Alex Salmond! Stick it to the NuLab bozo's!

penlan said...

In general,Labour only supported devolution on the basis that they would be in perpetual power in Edinburgh and Cardiff.This was not supposed to happen.They lost Scotland and ,if it was not for a combination of Libdem stupidity and some fast footwork by Rhodri Morgan,would have lost Wales.So now they are stuck and have to hope that other parties save them by messing up.It may not happen.

St George said...

twatinthehat
well some ways you ask have suppor for independence over 50% i.e Sunday Tele poll
but when you ask people which parliament should control individual powers pertaining to Scotland no one suggest Westminster --which in practice suggest independence is the game

But in light of the 16% poll an opinion poll asking a neutral question that all sides agree on would make quite a story for which ever paper is first to do it

The Hitch said...

Mr Vulva
Yet again we agree.
Once the skirt wearing ,porridge slurping sheep botherers get independence they will be like the French (remember the Auld alliance) only without the charm ,good humour and sense of fair play.
As you say some of the ones down here are OK , they had the good sense to leave the midge infested wasteland that is scotland.
The ex Mrs Hitch married one of the fuckers, fucking serves her right for fleecing me.

Struan Jamieson said...

No one said, Alex Salmond was stupid

So the point is its clear Cyclops ain't having his honeymoon in his own pitch. Pity David (call me Dave) can't use exactly the same issues in the rest of the UK and surge ahead but as I said I don't think 'Eck Salmond is stupid- I'm not so sure about Dave.

Harry Basset said...

If/When the Scots get independence I look for a speedy exodus of the weather forecasters and football experts from english TV along with all the hopeless politicians who currently rule my country.

Border Reever said...

hitch after taking your woman
did the Scots take your beer too:-)

sorry chum childish but i could not resist it

more vulgar than a vulcans vulva said...

Hitch:

Don't want to sound like a spotty, adoring webfan (i just like the shit you say) but I can't recall ever disagreeing with you about anything.

Is that worrying?

There must be something..

I don't find the Chinese quite as funny as you. And I'd sooner shag a Japanese bint than get a bout of 'yellow fever' (Chinese skin is just *too* yellow - and the nip chicks are more horny) but aside from that, I don't think I've ever strayed too far from 'Hitchism'

:-D

more vulgar than a vulcans vulva said...

"If/When the Scots get independence I look for a speedy exodus of the weather forecasters and football experts from english TV along with all the hopeless politicians who currently rule my country."

Harry - don't count on it.

Nothing will change for us when Scots go independent. Except we'll get MORE "shit" from them.

They'll get preferential treatment - just like the Irish, only more so - right to abode, right to armed forces, right to vote in general elections, the whole f**king lot.

They'll probably even still receive cross-border subsidies from our Exchequer under the guise of "new country development funds" or some shit like that..

And you can bet your bottom dollar that the BBC (why would it change its name?) will still use them in their hundreds..

Travis Bickle said...

So, in next election;

More people vote SNP than Labour in Scotland
More people vote Conservative than Labour in England (as in 2005)

Labour are returned with a large majority.

hmmm Democracy ?

c-c-clunking f-f-fist said...

Baxter's seat prediction for Scotland on these numbers gives:

NAT: 51
LAB: 8
LIB: 0
CON: 0

In itself that would leave Labour on 313 seats and a hung parliament.

Ed said...

think its great that the Scots look like going it alone and I for one wish them all the luck in the world!

Completely agree. Once England, Scotland and Wales are set free we can be neighbourly neighbours instead of the current dysfunctional "marriage".

more vulgar than a vulcans vulva said...

"Once England, Scotland and Wales are set free we can be neighbourly neighbours"

Ed: I think I've explained already why this won't happen - for the reasons I gave above.

The Scots can't even be neighbourly to each other for fucks sake.

Let's not be naive - Scotland will get all it wants. England will be shafted.

aardvark said...

Matthew Scott said...
the graphic looks like 16% though...

11:51 AM, August 10, 2007



From "The Scotsman"

"... support for the SNP is now at 48 per cent - 15 per cent more than what they achieved at Holyrood elections three months ago."

BOF2BS said...

c-c-clunking f-f-fist said...

Baxter's seat prediction for Scotland on these numbers gives:

NAT: 51
LAB: 8
LIB: 0
CON: 0

In itself that would leave Labour on 313 seats and a hung parliament.

Electoral calculus says:

2005 Prediction
CON 15.83% 1 8.00% 0
LAB 39.54% 41 32.00% 8
LIB 22.64% 11 8.00% 0
NAT 17.67% 6 48.00% 51

Probably use the same model

Penfold said...

If Alex Salmond gets his way it will be the Scottish Labouring Party, and WILL NOT be affiliated to Gordo and London.

Anonymous said...

The Welsh pray on their knees, and on their neighbors.

The Scots keep the Sabbath, and anything else they can get their hands on.

The Irish don't know what they want but are willing to fight to the death for it.

The English consider themselves a race of self made men, thus relieving the almighty of an awesome responsibility.

Much truth spoken in jest. Be great to see the peripheral areas of the British Isles sloughed off from England. But given the disparity in wealth, talent and population, and the way that the peripheries have 'swung the lead' on the English over the years, I fail to see why English people should be bothered to maintain 'good relations' with the peripheries. Other than the Republic of Ireland of course, which is a mature, independent country now.

Ken Dodds Dads Dogs Dead said...

So if/when Scotland becomes Independant, imagine all that money that now goes north of the border staying in the rest of the UK :) And the airbases in Scotland closing, and the naval yards, with all the jobs and money heading to Liverpool, Southampton, Portsmouth etc.
All those jobs gone from Scotland. And any future warship building is gone to.
Any ideas were the jobs to replace these are coming from? I know this sounds sarcastic, but I really have never heard a decent answer to that question.

Ed said...

A decision about independence shouldn't be based on money and jobs - it's all about self-determination.

Or are the Scots really as tight as the stereotype??

;-)

Anglo Saxophone said...

c-c-clunking f-f-fist said...

Baxter's seat prediction for Scotland on these numbers gives:

NAT: 51
LAB: 8
LIB: 0
CON: 0

In itself that would leave Labour on 313 seats and a hung parliament.
-------
Not only that, it would probably make the SNP the 3rd largest party at Westminster.

Goodbye Ming, hello Angus Robertson with 2 questions each week at PMQs. And Chris Hune/Vince Cable or whoever having to bob up and down to grab the Speaker's attention :-)

That would be as sweet as a nut :-)

Dunferino (REMY GET TO FUCK) said...

Vulgar than vulcan's vulva can go fuck himself, the stupid wee English prick.

I dont like the English much, they're cowards who let us jocks walk over them and turn their country into a police state.

ID cards? No bother. Cameras on every street in London? Yeah why not. Unelected Prime Minister? Sure. Surrender to Iranians in paddle steamers? Yeah, of course!

You English are gutless and NEED us jocks to rule you. You're too thick to run yourselves. Us SNP supporters laugh our fucking heads off when we see you cowed.... it's brilliant.

I bet you Vulgar is a 5ft nothing poof who'd shit himself if I said hello.

english nationalist said...

This talk of jobs going north or south isnt going to mean a thing when the Chinese start turning the economic screw on us! And the best part is The "deep thinker" Gordon Brown has walked straight into the chinese trap and took us with him!
China has been providing Gordon with his low inflation economy (+fiddled figures) by selling us cheap goods, now they have all the factories and their own billion plus population can now afford to buy the output of these factories that the west put the money up for!
So now China has lots of money and plenty of its own consumers what do you think they are going to do now? They are going to sit back and watch as the wests economies implode as they put up the prices for all their exports and then walk back in and buy up the wreckage for peanuts! So all you state gravytrain "carbon advisors, media presentation officers, equality & diversity officers,human rights lawyers" and the miriad of other parasites of the state think that your jobs and pensions are safe? Do you think that your great leader and deep thinker will stand by you when there is no more money to pay your inflated wages and pensions? Er NO! you smug fucking dickheads will be in the same soup kitchen queue as the rest of the population and all thanks to Gordon Brown who wanted to keep inflation down in the short term to make himself look good! When the soup kitchens are running at full whack I am going to walk down the lines pissing myself laughing at all the gravytrain parasites who thought they were made for life! SEE YOU SOON?

english nationalist said...

Dear Dunferino,

I think I love you! Tell it like it is mate! Its been so easy for SOME of my countrymen to take the piss out of the jocks so they dont have to see what they have let England become! The English are letting themselves walk into a shit tip without so much as a fucking whimper. If the commisars tried to pull this shit on you jocks they would be swinging from the lamposts outside the castle! So when you hear all this anti Scottish crap just remember that some of us know the truth.

more vulgar than a vulcans vulva said...

"Or are the Scots really as tight as the stereotype??"

Yes.

"imagine all that money that now goes north of the border staying in the rest of the UK "

Nice, but it won't. We'll still end up making 'payments' to them under some guise or other.

"I dont like the English much"

There we have it!

"I bet you Vulgar is a 5ft nothing poof who'd shit himself if I said hello."

Ooohh.. you're scary. Yes. I've just shat myself.

Why don't you tell me who YOU are -and where you live - and we can arrange a meet-up?

Then we'll see who's scared fuckface.

CUNT!!

more vulgar than a vulcans vulva said...

English Nationalist: "So when you hear all this anti Scottish crap just remember that some of us know the truth. "

With respect, if you'd lived in Scotland - like I did for 3 years - you'd know just how nasty and unpleasant a bunch of people they are.

I'm deadly serious. They are horrible people. Even the ones who are nice to your face are very racist about you (as English) behind your back.

And it wasn't just me. All my English work colleagues experienced the same.

The reaction of "Dunferino" is typical Scottish one(though I suspect he's a sockpuppet of one of the regular trolls on this site).

Though, he's too stupid to realise he contradicted himself in his post.

dunferino's cousin said...

poor old Vulcan we should get uncle Alex to send another of his many barrels of oil so that old vulcan can go boil his heid in it :-)

Anonymous said...

Small note of caution these are the figures for HOLYROOD not WESTMINSTER and the poll also found 31% of respondents approved of independence, but 49% disapproved.

dunferino's brother said...

I think my brothers a fucking twat.

Y'Ken?

english nationalist said...

Dear vulcans vulva,

I lived and worked in Scotland and found them to be decent, hard but good people just like we used to be many years ago! Our Engand has changed from a hardy and proud Islander spirit to a cowed and selfish and weak race! This change has been swift and terrible and in large parts of England the new type of Englishman rules and you only have to look to parliament to see them, handwringing, self hating,selfish and weak minded PC twats! For years the leftist thought police have brainwashed us into thinking we are all evil racists who have raped and pillaged our way around the world! Guilt has been heaped upon us by those who wished to see England destroyed! When you see a Scot you see what we were and that is the type that ruled the world but now we cant even rule ourselves without the "help" of the EU trash!
We used to be hard as nails and took the piss out of everyone but look at us now we as weak and divided as we have ever been!

border reever said...

yes but 100% want holyrood to have x power over scotland not westminster so when you tease it out Scotland/SNP wins
actually so does England and its green and pleasant land

Splashitallover said...

guido, my regard for you knows no bounds, but when you start this sort of thing, you look desperate. fuck scotland, labour are winning in england under brown. brown has no interest in scotland per se, purely as a source of seats to run the UK. nocharges agin levy etc (worse luck), tories tanking and brown doing well in uk polls. choose your bullets carefully, don't bother firing at the jock front, it's not that important.

border reever said...

ah splashitallover but it is the SNP could hold the balnce of power at Westminster

english nationalist said...

You know Labour are shaken when NuLabour plants (vegetables) start saying that "Scotland is not important"! NuLabour are shaken to the core and they know that the SNP might very well mean the end of Brown! So expect to see lots of damage limmitation posts! Oh and by the way one of these posts tried to say that the SNP would rather deal with Brown as PM than Cameron as PM? In fact The new SNP administration is getting along with the Tories north & south just fine! I would not be at all surprised if the SNP and Scottish Tories linked up to destroy Labour at the next GE. The Scottish Labour party take instructions direct from London and Alex knows this and he also knows that whatever faults the Scots Tories have at least they put Scotland first in their dealings with Westminster!

tapestry said...

Why is support for the SNP rocketing and yet support for the dividing of the Union is plummeting?

english nationalist said...

The Union is dead! Its been dead for a long time now. There was a time when it was usefull but that time is no more!
People hang onto it because they are scared and dont have the moral courage to see that we do not need a "federal jackboot" anymore! The pro unionists stir up fear and anxiety and thats all they have to offer! At least the SNP offers hope and self belief to their race!
Westminster is presiding over the destruction of the native races of the British Isles and the Scots want none of it and who can blame them? London found a "golden goose" in the form of North sea oil so what did the commisars do? they proceeded to strangle it to death! Instead of using it as a wealth creator they taxed it to death so the oil companies found it too expensive to invest in the next generation of deep sea rigs to find and exploit the major reserves that exist further out in the Atlantic! So now because of westminster greed and stupidity we will become an importer of oil and all the jobs that could have been created in the rig building industry has gone abroad! VERY CLEVER!
The Norwegians saw and laughed at our short term attitude and filled the gap, so now the Norwegians are increasing their oil & gas output and they get all the benefits!
While our yards stand empty oil&gas rigs are worth their weight in gold and its ALL down to short term westminster greed and incompetence on a truly staggering scale! We sit on massive coal reserves and oil & gas fields just off our shores and yet we are busy importing and putting ourselves at the mercy of energy suppliers like Russia! You just could NOT make it up for a monty python comedy! The sooner Alex & Co break the union the better for all of us!

border reever said...

tapestry
intelligent question

suport for independence does seem down on Jan
but up four point on three months ago
HOWEVER
when scots are asked about abc powers belonging to Scotland and whether they should be contolled in Westminster or Holyrood they go for Edinburgh
SO
that prob makes a vast maj of people total devoluntionists
and the diff between total devoltion and indy is zilch :-)
anywa thats my thoughts

Anonymous said...

There is a real need for an English Party to represent the underclass, England and theEnglish.

A real need for an English Democratic Party.

A party that stands for Nation, Royalty, Defence of Nationhood etc. The rights of individuals and individuals responsibility to the Nation.........shucks were they not the principles of the Tory Party? who have forgotten the English?

Casual Observer said...

The sooner Alex Salmond & Co fuck Westminster off the better it will be for Scotland. I might even move back!

mister stuff said...

"12:10 PM, August 11, 2007"

"A real need for an English Democratic Party.A party that stands for Nation, Royalty"

drop the royalty, in favour of the long long tradition of English republicanism (the Levellers, John Trenchard, Thomas Gordon, the Cato Letters, the Commonwealth Men) and you might be onto something. That is English history and you should be damn proud of it - it went on to directly influence the American revolution of 1776.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealthman

An English Democrat Party would also advocate pulling out of the EU, in favour of genuine national self-determination. The adoption of an American style consitution would be a nice bonus.

Anonymous said...

If Scotland goes do you think Poland would like to join the Union?

Anonymous said...

Brown's woes continue. He stands to lose goodness knows how many seats to the SNP at the next election, and now Jack McConnell has resigned.

Labour are in total disarray in Scotland.

Anonymous said...

Now calm down boys! Sensible question coming up.

How many seats would Labour lose in Scotland based on this sort of poll? Any ideas?

Nice to see another coronation for Labour, nothing like a good old fashioned stitch up for democracy.

The Wilted Rose said...

Alex Salmond v Wendy Alexander is no contest. SNP gain 15 Parliamentary seats from LAB in Scotland easily on the basis of this poll (and the SNP lead will increase; just watch). Tories and Lib Dems are switching to SNP. People who haven't voted for a decade or more are voting SNP. Lifelong Labour voters are switching to SNP.

The Conservatives suffered a meltdown in Scotland throughtout the 80s and 90s. The same, ironically, is happening to Labour. It happens in Government. If Salmond can prove himself, he's in for a generation or more. Labour, meanwhile, lose scores of seats in Parliament.


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