Punters Spooked by Mole
The First Post's "The Mole" has tipped Mike Smithson at PoliticalBetting.com that he is about to break a story. The Mole is firmly in the Brown camp. Punters have shifted money onto an early bath for Blair with speculation of a date being leaked. We have had this before with The Sun even announcing a date on the front page.
Nick Robinson has been weighing up Blair's semantic choices. His PMQs answer to Cameron this week implied that he had not made up his mind when to go. Did he just say that to wind up the Brownites?
Most think he'll make an announcement after May 3. Presumably he'll wait until after returning from Stormont on May 8 to bask in the afterglow of perhaps achieving peace in the six counties. (We should not quibble that it is a strange peace that sees the two most extreme parties in power.) So it is possible that he could go see the Queen and tell her of his intentions sometime in early May.
For political punters whether or not it is before or after May 13 is crucial. The leadership process takes 7 weeks. Bets on the timing of his leaving hinge on the date he is no longer leader of the Labour party. If the process starts on May 12 bets will be settled for June, if May 13 bets will be settled for July. Knife edge...
UPDATE : The Mole's big "exclusive" this morning is the claim that Blair will say he is going on May 9. Could be... but never say never with Blair and our Brownite Mole might be indulging in wishful thinking.
Nick Robinson has been weighing up Blair's semantic choices. His PMQs answer to Cameron this week implied that he had not made up his mind when to go. Did he just say that to wind up the Brownites?
Most think he'll make an announcement after May 3. Presumably he'll wait until after returning from Stormont on May 8 to bask in the afterglow of perhaps achieving peace in the six counties. (We should not quibble that it is a strange peace that sees the two most extreme parties in power.) So it is possible that he could go see the Queen and tell her of his intentions sometime in early May.
For political punters whether or not it is before or after May 13 is crucial. The leadership process takes 7 weeks. Bets on the timing of his leaving hinge on the date he is no longer leader of the Labour party. If the process starts on May 12 bets will be settled for June, if May 13 bets will be settled for July. Knife edge...
UPDATE : The Mole's big "exclusive" this morning is the claim that Blair will say he is going on May 9. Could be... but never say never with Blair and our Brownite Mole might be indulging in wishful thinking.
27 comments:
Blair has to resign as Labour leader in order to trigger an election. His leadership ceases when he resigns, not when Broon takes over. Prescott automatically becomes Labour leader when Blair resigns. There is no provision in the constitution for a joint resignation of the leader and deputy leader as the sole purpose of the latter is to deputise for the former (viz. Margaret Beckett in 1994).
The office of Prime Minister is totally different, and nothing to do with the Labour Party.
If Mike Smithson's book doesn't mention the pitfalls of betting on events with complex legalistic implications then it may be less useful than it looks.
The poodle might resign as leader of ZaNuLabor soon, but I fear that he will not release his grip on power so easily.
Some dickhead at the First Post suggests one reason why Miliband declined to run was because most Labour MP's believe Brown is the best man to lead the party through the serious economic problems ahead.
Are they kidding? It was that profligate, lying, thieving bastard Brown who screwed the economy and left it drowning in debt in the first place!
Or perhaps they really think that as Brown caused the God awful mess to come, then he can stay to carry the can for it.
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Oh great so we get Prescott as PM. What happens if Gordon has a heart attack?
Gordon Brown had better get into No 10 quickly before the economy comes off the rails and he becomes even more despised than he is already:
The Potemkin economy constructed by Gordon Brown has finally started to collapse. The fake edifice the Chancellor carefully put together to give the appearance of stability and prudence is falling away to reveal the spending binge, borrowing and stealth taxes which have been the true hallmark of his tenure at 11 Downing Street. The Treasury may talk about stable prices, low unemployment and robust earnings – yet what the public experiences is painful inflation, widespread joblessness and dropping spending power. Even for an experienced operator like the Chancellor, it is hard to keep up the pretence.....
http://thebusinessonline.com/Document.aspx?id=F4C3993A-43E6-4BB0-A5CB-57183A0C0952
Having seen Ed on tonights Question Time I was wondering who those two geeks David and Ed Miliband reminded me of and I've just remembered:-
Mike and Bernie Winters
http://www.televisionheaven.co.uk/mikebernscrnsvr.jpg
Dear Adolf
Happy birthday. Just dropping you a line to tell that its OK your deciples up here are doing just fine running Europe without your inspired leadership. All thats left, is stopping those evil capitalist American pig dog yid lovers from messing with our Arab brothers and its almost job done.
Hoping its not too hot where you are, and Ava and the dogs are fine. See you soon, but not too soon I hope.
Best wishes
G.Galloway
Dear Ludwig von
Good to see your still spouting that capitalist bullshit. If I told you once I must have told you a thousand times. Capitalism will not work because the people will never do as they are told when they have their own private wealth employment and property.
People dont want freedom and independance they want to be told what to do and think, from cradle to grave. So that they dont have to take responsibility for anything, and they dont have to feel bad when someone has more of anything then they do. Its a real vote winner, you will see.
yours
Karl Marx
It's a little known fact that David and Ed Miliband secrete a special slime that enables them to climb walls and perch on ceilings.
What are the odds for gordon not being the new leader of the labour party.I would like to bet 10p EW that he will not be party leader. Im carefull like gordon.
"Oh great so we get Prescott as PM. What happens if Gordon has a heart attack?"
Make no mistake, I know what I'll do 'if Gordon has a heart attack',and I suspect so does 80% of the Labour Party.
Bring it on
Just heard that a Tory MP is putting forward a Bill to remove the pwers of the Freedom of Information Act from applying to MPs (their expenses etc) and from Parliamentary business ( how much they spend on tarting up the gents etc) NuLab are quietly supporting this. No surprise there, but why is Cameron allowing this goon to shoot the Tories in the foot.
"Just heard that a Tory MP is putting forward a Bill to remove the pwers of the Freedom of Information Act from applying to MPs (their expenses etc) and from Parliamentary business ( how much they spend on tarting up the gents etc) NuLab are quietly supporting this."
Arrogant tossers, no doubt some mealy mouthed excuse will be trotted out - need for confidentiality, waste of public money etc etc. If Cameron has any sense he'll kick this idiot in the balls.
Ladbrokes have "next permanent labour leader" as bet so clear I think.
Betfair have "Blair switch project" which might be capable of interpretation but Guido's undoubted experience in this area to be taken account of.
I certainly believe the master of ambiguity will continue in character
Also don't discount the probability that he &/or his associates may have taken certain positions in this matter.
"Gift horse," "mouth" and "racing certainty" are words which come to mind!!!
Never forget Loans for Lordships.
Whos is this "Tory MP", in league with New Labour who wants to exempt Parliament from the Freedom of Information Act?
If they want to bring MP's into even more disrepute and give more votes to UKIP and the BNP then they're going the right way about it.
The arrogant, money grabbing bastards of both New Laour and some Tories are totally shameless.
It's time their snouts were removed from this trough.
Tony to announce his resignation on 9 May, apparently.
Add that one to the giant rubbish-pile of other unsourced Blair-to-go 'exclusives'...
How long does Our Tone have to hang on for to beat thatcher's record? Just wondering.
Whatever Blair's intentions are they are certainly known to the head of state. You don't just turn up at the palace and resign. Particularly after a year-long lead time.
Blair recommends the successor; a glance at surprising recommendations, and refusals to recommend, and contortions to avoid apparent heirs over the last century is worthwhile.
Blair recommends dissolution too. Is the head of state going to go against such a recommendation? Quite a step. And Prescott will indeed be Labour party leader upon Blair's party resignation.
The Labour party rule book is only one player in this. Yates, too, is still out there.
More pie in the sky ,Guido your turning into a follower not a leader ,what happened to plots ,rumours or is it because it's friday.
Mens Sana 11.19 PM.
Surely there is no possibility of Prescott becoming Prime Minister.
When Blair resigns as leader of the Labour Party then Prescott may automatically become acting leader of the Party but Blair will stay on as PM until a new party leader is appointed.
Of course, Blair could always call a general election. Now that would be interesting!
I would really love Tone to go to The Queen and announce is resignation as PM, Leader of the PLP and a moment before that, call for a new General Election.
That would royally shaft Gordo utterly. It would probably mean a hung parliament, split the PLP and cause tectonic shifts in the Dumboldtwats and Conservatives that could create one of the biggest round of musical chairs in history.
We need this - the centre ground is just a fetid shell crater filled with piss and wind that all the turds have slithered down into and can't be bothered to see if there is anything else out there.
Well there is. One barking mad dog (BNP), a cat up a tree (The New Party), a demented enjumpered sanndalista running around the crater going "poo, what a smell!" (Greens) and an unseen lark singing a song people have long forgotten but remember fondly (UKIP).
Blair won't announce his resignation until some sleazebag arranges a job for him.
I don't want to spoil a great story, but hasn't Prescott said he will resign at the same time as Blair? And does anyone know who becomes acting leader of the Labour Party if both the leader and deputy resign?
Here's a thought:
Maybe Blair's finally realised his value on the lecture circuit is severly diminished. Perhaps he's trying to fund the mortgages using politicalbetting and judicious rumours to make the price jump backwards and forwards.
As Guido once said: "mugs bet on the outcome, traders bet on price movement" (or something like that).
If you are reading this gordo or one of your lackeys then listen up.No one likes you they think you stole their pension,priced their kids out of houses and turned their hospitals into death camps. Do you realy think you will be PM of this country well FUCK YOU!! IT AINT GONNA HAPPEN YOU SNOT EATING,NAPPY WEARING ROCKING HORSE RIDING CONTROL FREAK.AND THE MORE YOU PARADE YOUR SICK KID ON TELLY THE MORE WE HATE YOU.RESIGN AND LOOK AFTER HIM,PROVE YOUR A MAN.
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