New Labour's New Generation
With polling now showing that the Tories are seen as more competent on the economy than Labour, Gordon's last ace looks to have been trumped. In 1992 the Tories lost their reputation for superior economic competence and it has taken a decade of stealth taxes for Gordon to lose his. Coupled with the fact that he is just not likeable, even in comparison to Blair, Labour MPs in marginal seats must be beginning to wonder about their chances. Frank Field may have an axe to grind but he is vocalising what many in the PLP are thinking, ask yourself why are emails going round attempting to guage support for Miliband? It shows the depth of despair in some quarters about the prospect of Gordon leading Labour into opposition.
In the last three months punters have backed Miliband from 40/1 down to 15/1, discounting his unambiguous declarations of his non-intention of running for leader. Heseltine said much the same a decade or so ago. But with Gordon facing only joke candidates from the left of the party, the centre and pragmatic wing must be thinking about the next generation. Don't forget Hutton either...
85 comments:
Everybody knows the Labour Party is sunk. The only two questions are (1) how big will the Tory majority be and (2) who will take over from Gordon. Miliband looks like being the next Mr Hague (only cr*p).
My money for the next serious opposition will be Blinky Balls. If I were a Labour backbencher I would be lining up behind him. Time for Blinky to distance himself from Gordon.
Is that the chart of hits on the Miliblog you're showing there Guido?
It's the new range of economic policies that are the attraction!
When ever I see Milliband, I I imagine him at Berlin Central Station in 1943. He's wearing a full length black leather overcoat and he's asking suspicious people for their papers.
Good call Guido , they may think they have nothing to lose but I think Milliband will want to have a run at it and will only take the chance if he is asurred another go .
Highly likely though
So the choice seems to be lose under Brown or get wiped out under Milliband. Are Labour M.P.'s really so suicidal?
Hoe the hell will Brown and his apparatchicks react if Milibland stood? It would tear the party in two. So I'm all for it.
Don't forget the one person to stop Blair is - Blair!
Wait to see the panicking NuLabor control freaks realise that Gordimmo will take them into the wilderness, and beg Blair to stay on to fight the next election.
These piggies have had their snouts in the trough too long to think sensibly. That they will stoop to any hair brain scheme to keep the gravy flowing.
Personally I feel Ed Balls or Yvette Cooper could boost Labour enormously with Geoff Hoon as Chancellor and Eric Joyce as Defence Minister and Hazel Blears as Foreign Secretary
I agree that people in the Labour Party will ask Tony to stay on - but he knows he has a big mortgage to pay and this is his best chance to go before Iraq sinks him.
But I agree with Guido - this nonsense about people 'ruling themselves out' is just that.
Johnson, Miliband, John Reid, Hutton, even Peter Hain, will all want to go for the top job if it looks like being a proper contest, rather than a coronation for Gordo.
El Gordo's price has started drifting on the betting exchanges already and he will soon not be an 'odds-on favourite'. Then watch the unseemly scramble begin.
Even Jack Straw might fancy a crack..
Sorry...
The leadership race is going to be great viewing. Hopefully there will be enough shit flying around to damage the eventual winner.
Millyboy gets my backing - best of a terrible bunch.
Yup Milliband is it.
No one in NL wanted to understand the growing resentment in England of the cotrolling and non-accountable Scottish MP's.
Just dawning. Not just a generational thing its a Scitish thing too.
Haven't you all forgotten Hilary Benn? Blairite; leftist past; everyone likes his dad nowadays. Surprise attacks always come in under the radar.
Javlin. But he can't though can he? Redistribution problems.
Sorry Javelin!
...is Milliband stupid enough to grasp for a poisoned chalice? Answers on a postcard please.
I think barnacle_bill and anon are on to something. Maybe Blair is so deranged he believes the Labour party will realise their mistake and ask him to stay. But, looking at the candidates, can you really say he's wrong?
What fun there would be if he called Gordon's bluff. Would Gordon have the bottle to stop him?
Mitch do you mean Blair standing against Brown in a leadership contest or not resigning as leader in the first place.
A Blair/Brown contest would be manna from heaven - it should have happened in 94...
Milibland would be smashed by Cameron. Only Gordon can beat him. Gordon has to hang on, hope he can scrape through the next election, and wait for a Tory scandal or similair to evade defeat after one term.
Balls is a significant person, Benn lacks what some will call x-factor, and he's never had a difficult department to deal with. The soon-to-be Lord Blair of Basra can't be matched by any of these people, but Gordon has shown most political skill - staying favourite to succeed the current leader for 10 years is not easy.
McDonnell isn't a joke candidate, he's just the campaign-group wing "we're still here and you'll have to give us some sops if you want our votes and our money" candidate. Meacher *is* a joke candidate though, and the BBC know it. I'd call him the kamikaze candidate, but kamikaze fighters usually do some damage in their attacks.
Hutton is too boring and too unknown amongst the non-political public to be in the short term running for anything much.
Simian Sam, you live down to your simian origins - Nulab has more Labour MPs in England than Conservatives. There have only been four, just four, occasions when Scottish & Welsh Labour MPs have swung the balance. And even then, some of that legislation, even though primarily to do with England and Wales, still had aspects that affected Scotland.
So away with you and your xenophobia - we're all as British as each other. I can think of plenty of other 'foreigners' in our country that you should be getting worked up about before you start turning on fellow Brits.
londontory - something like this:
All the favourite candidates are out of the running for one reason or another - Reid, Clarke, Blunkett, Straw. Realistically all that's left is Brown, a left loony, and a junior Blairite e.g. Miliband.
Let's say there were sustained attacks on Brown - personal and political. Result Brown is damaged goods and very unpopular with the country. It's obvious he can't win the next election and would only limp on for a couple of years until the inevitable defeat. Bad for him but worse for Labour.
Then some bright spark (Alastair Cambell?) starts a rumour that wouldn't it be btetter for Blair to stay on:
a) he's still a brilliant politican.
b) he would be honouring his promise to serve a full term.
c) he can handle the withdrawl from Iraq.
d) unstated but true - there aren't any decent candidates to replace him.
Since Frank Field is so good at stating the bleedin' obvious, why doesn't he stand?
Bruun the 'Sulking Cyclops' is doomed to failure - he looks old, knackered and dodgy - Yesterdays Man. He's definitely soiled by the cash for honours scandal - only a financial incompetent wouldn't notice all that extra money sloshing around. Oh...
Imagine having him as a house guest! You'd return from work to find him up on the roof stripping the lead. The furniture and children would have been sold at a knock down price. He'd have your wife working in the 'personal services' sector.
Wha's supposed to be so great about Balls? Each time I've heard him he's stumbled and stuttered, grasping for words, and he's got less personality than my fax machine.
judith > "Wha's supposed to be so great about Balls? Each time I've heard him he's stumbled and stuttered, grasping for words,"
... exactly, great for a laugh.
But seriously he should stab Gordon in the back if wants a run at PM.
proud brit.
Not the point. Scottish MPs at Westminster vote on English legislation. Their electorate arn't affected and don't give a stuff. As for the make up of the government....
I was astonished to see Miliband described as "telegenic" in today's "Telegraph" - there's obviously something wrong with my TV screen.
I can't make up my mind if Miliband reminds me of Melanie Philips or that Nazi,Herr Flick, in "Hello, Hello." Mind you, Herr Flick did have a big gay following.
mitch - David Blunkett was a favourite candidate? Who would've voted for David Bonkitt?
McDonnell site comments reactions to Meacher candidacy:
"It's a pity because, frankly, he's going to get humiliated," said the Ealing North MP [stephen pound]
...next time the left really must find a way of chosing a candidate through a democratic forum.
Otherwise there is bound to be a clash of egos.
What a nitwit Meacher is, he must have something personal against John surely to want to split the vote like this? I think John's incredibly slim chance of getting on the ballot paper has just been reduced to nothing. Well done Michael.
Let's hope today's news is a blessing in disguise in that we really must get an election now or we will be the laughing stock of the other world's democracies!!
I may not of decided on the leadership but I would vote for [John McDonnell] over Meacher any day!
I'm really disappointed that Michael Meacher has made this anouncement - I had hoped that he had decided against it.
The fact that he had two MPs at his launch and one isn't backing him says a lot about his support in all three sections if you ask me.
Harry Barnes calls him: "The Poor Man's Clare Short" - I'm sure this is to insinuate Michael is a berk rather than an alcoholic!
It is a bad move by Meacher, but Johns campaign is getting a dynamic all of its own...it has the feel of a genuine grass roots effort and its a long time since anyone in any party has achieved that! Imo, thats why there has largely been a media blackout, they (the media) don't like change from the bottom as it were.
Michael's decision to stand won't make a big difference -John McDonnell is still by far the most credible candidate. It might be a mistake to attack Michael's decision too harshly - his supporters might well decide to back John in future if the recriminations are kept to a minimum.
Well, Meacher has given us some oxygen thanks to his vanity project. Let's get out there and get the nominations.
If Meacher is as close to Brown as we think, then there's no problem and nothing changes.
He's probably been encouraged by someone with ulterior motives. Beware of flatterers Michael, they may just be using you.
Just watched Meacher launch on Newsnight. Will not give me sleepless night.
I voted for Michael in 1983 as deputy Leader and he's done some good stuff. But he is not, whaetever his website says, "Labour's Future."
Skim down this page:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/default.stm
Look at the picture of Meacher there. Can you take that man seriously?
Simian Sam,
The Scots don't even like their own parliament. It has cost an enormous amount of money, and has done nothing worthwhile, apart from not introducing tuition fees for them (and why would Scottish students all specially want to go to Scottish rather than English universities, and vice versa?).
Abolish the parliament at Holyrood. Problem solved.
Doesn't it all hang on whether the Labour MPs decide that it is the messenger and not the policies that is their problem.
A vote for Brown is a vote for the same (domestic) policies. So if it is the policies that "the man on the Clapham Omnibus" does not like like Road Pricing, then a vote for Gordon is a vote for oblivion for many marginal Labour MPs. Yet the Blairites support these policies as well, so it still an oblivion vote for them if they choose one of the Milibands of this world.
Simian Sam, the current constitutional arrangements do need to be addressed, but that is not an excuse to have a go at the Scots (or anyone else) in general, which is what you were doing. Stick to the politics and away from the petty xenophobia, okay. If you want to read an in depth and worthwhile explanation of the issues and possible solutions take a look at this excellent paper http://www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/Politics/papers/2005/BarnettandtheWestLothianQuestion.pdf. It's not as simple as you seem to think, and it's certainly not the fault of the Scottish people.
Expect major developments on June 30th and July 1st - on these nights in 1934 a previous Chancellor and his brownshirts purged the party of 82 prominent socialists who were perceived to be a threat to the regime. Neolabs beware!!
anon - Blunkett is a poor joke now but there was a time when he was a serious contender. Honestly.
If Blair stays it would be the final and definitive 'f*ck you' to Brown. Surely this is Cherie's argument.
And it would confirm Blair as the ultimate survivor. Like Jesus he rises from the dead. Am I not supreme....?
Blinkey4Leader ! I could do with all the entertainment at Question time and on Newsnight !
The Tory tanks are now lining up on the Oder and all they do in the bunker is discuss who will be Fuhrer next.
Anon 11:30: did you take _both_ your tablets today???
Proud brit
I'd be really surprised if the Conservatives had more Labour MP's in England than Nu-lab.
So, Miliband runs defra, a department so inept and poorly led, that its on a par with the child support agency - I'm sure you all listened to 'Farming Today' this morning ! The whole programme was devoted to the utter uselessness of defra....caused by the treasury fucking them over !!!
Quel surprise.
Hilary Benn, any one? Hello?
The answer to all this publicty for Millie is simple-he'd make Dave look good.
anonymous: you don't need to call me anon [insert time] - I always sign as "anon", thereby distinguishing me from people who are anonymous. I am officially "anon" (abbrev).
I doubt that explanation helped do much to ease your concerns about by medication..hm.
Though, I don't know what the query is - I quoted a bunch of people from the McDonnell site, and said that Meacher won't be taken seriously. He's the media's chosen left-wing candidate, but I personally think McDonnell will run as the "left" candidate (with zero chance of being elected leader).
mitch: Hm. An amusing thought.
It would be hilarious if Blair tried to stay on.
Speaking of Blair and hilarity:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/cartoons/stevebell/0,,2018723,00.html
Don't be so sure that Gordon can't win the next election. Firstly, despite all the indicators saying otherwise, Thatcher won at Kinnocks expense, and then there was John Major. As for picking the "younger/seemingly more liked" Milliband, didn't the Tory party try that to abject failure in recent years?
Milliband. All I can say is...
WHAT A TOSSER.
He looks like a tosser, he SOUNDS like a tosser and he (probably) is quite literally.. a tosser.
Didn't all of us have one of these smarmy bespectacled little creeps primed at the back of every one of our classes at school? Y'know the sort who'd wait for an opportunity in every lesson to point out a spelling mistake by the teacher or demonstrate their infinitely superior knowledge? The type who'd rather stay at home and masturbate over an image of Barbara Castle than go out for a drink with their mates?
We know we did. They were all tossers. He is just like them.
A tosser. A total, TOTAL tosser.
Wm Norton:
H Benn - No. And as for your earlier suggestion that everyone likes his old man nowadays, well you can count me out. And Mrs Idle. And my mother. In fact, I know of no one who rates Benn senior as anything other than wrong on almost all matters. Being antiwar is hardly a unique position of late.
More likely a White House Hilary (pass the sick bag) than a Downing Street one.
proud brit @ 11.36
"...it's certainly not the fault of the Scottish people."
If we can't blame the Scots what's the point of them? Certainly not their national cuisine nor their charismatic politicians.
Oops, didn't the Diamond bint get her collar felt for a similar comment on the Taffs?....I think I hear sirens in the distance....must be off...
Milliband must suffer from a serious lack of self awareness if he thinks he can ever win an election. At the very least he's have to campaign with a paper bag over his head.
Everyone on this site who thinks Brown can't win an election may well be correct, but he will have 3 years in power to do as much damage as he possibly can. Remember the final Tory years, with the disastrous rail privatisation being rushed through to secure Major's 'legacy'.
How stupid, we're over looking an invasion from the continent - Neil Kinnock! - just like Gordon he has plenty of experience. ha, ha.
Is that Len Hutton you mean? England could do with a batsman like that right now.
Please, there are numerous very good reasons why Millidand will not be PM, with the most obvious & apt one being he is smply not good enough. However, to suggest being err less than attractive is one of them......well we have had some absolute howlers as PM & Millibands no less ugly most of out previous PM's. Equal rights for ugly people I say.
To Anonymous at 12.04 pm - The baying hordes will be at the gates of Downing Street LONG before the end of Bruuns three years in power IF he becomes PM. There aren't enough police to keep order if Middle England starts rioting when the economy collapses. I'm not sure there would even be enough troops available to control public order (unless they started shooting).
proud brit.
An excuse for having a go at the Scots? Xenophobic? Wow.
No just the actuality. And I'm afraid you should get out more.Try talking to an English voter about it.
Ah don't mention the Barnett formula.
Brown will not win a 4th term for Labour. This is not only because of his track record but because he represents a Scotish constituency.
The PLP is just realising it. They need an English candidate.
I think they pushed milliboy out to the front, just to be a target, while everybody is chucking stones a milliboy they can play there games I cant believe milliboy would have a chance.
http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/issues/economy/
The Tories are only ahead on YouGov's economic competence polls, and look back over the series, Guido - they are an extreme outlier.
Blair should stay on longer and if Brown attempts another coup, Blair should sack him.
barnacle bill that was a good point,
I can just imagine Blair standing up before supporters begging him stay on before modestly refusing the crown, twice then seizing it to the cheers of a grateful crowd.
Personally I feel Ed Balls or Yvette Cooper could boost Labour enormously with Geoff Hoon as Chancellor and Eric Joyce as Defence Minister and Hazel Blears as Foreign Secretary
I would have difficulty imagining a more morally bereft, financially and politically corrupt and totally lacking in integrity 'dream team' than those mentioned. If you want an example in how to induce complete Gramscian hegemony into the United Kingdom then promoting those individuals would be a bright, shining example of it.
Idle@11.58: you're forgetting that the electorate are Labour Party members and associated electoral college parasites. Don't assess T Benn (and hence H Benn's chances) by your own more refined and elevated standards.
H Benn is English, vaguely presentable, has a vague dynastic claim to the top slot, has vague views, has spent the last few years vaguely feeding the starving in Africa (=has done nothing = no enemies). Looks good up against someone Scottish with a trail of dead bodies as long as your arm (and probably Mrs Idle's too) whom everyone definitely dislikes....
Think you've been had Julian.
They have no-one with any charisma whatsoever.Miliband is so visibly Special Needs that he would be even less acceptable than Brown (if that's possible).Even the total media control they've enjoyed via their silent partners and placemen can't hide the fact that Socialism Lite is just as unsuitable in the governance of a nation than the real thing.Happy days.Unibrow Special Needs Frog Boy.
Julian,
Its Friday. So how about :-
Byres, Vaz, Blunkett, Robinson, & Heweitt?
What about Smith, Dewar, Cook and Banks?
Such a dream team couldn't do any harm at all.
(is that too tasteless?)
seeing as Guido has clearly become an outpost of "Comment is Free" it is very refreshing to see that he thinks Will Hutton should become leader of the Labour Party. Clearly Will and all of us here in Faringdon Road will be delighted with Guido's endorsement.
Methinks Charcoal has hit the proverbial noggin. The be annointed as successor to Blair is to be handed a poisoned chalice.
I suspect that Old One Eye is secretly hoping he loses any leadership contest. Then he can retire to some grim manse north of the border nurturing his supporters delusions that he really was "the greatest leader Labour never had" and blaming his demise on Tony.
Of course with so many people nailing their flags to his mast he cannot withdraw and he cannot be seen to sabotage his own campaign, but expect a halfhearted effort, followed by a grim retirement and an autobiography blaming it all on his neighbours.
In your dreams.
WTF's Gramscian hegemony?
If you had all those people nailing their flags to your mast you'd be jolly uncomfortable.
Master Fawkes,
As the charity advert down here reads: "Every child has its dream".
Anon 2:08
Well there have been rumours round here of unnatural practices......
Estelle morris as pm
john prescott as chancellor
jeremy corbyn defense
dennis skinner foreign sec
chris bryant homo secretary
It's got to be a long term dream team of Milliband and Balls for leader and deputy. Then I can die happy, because Labour will be out of power until then. After that, frankly, I couldn't give a damn.
bebopper --
"When ever I see Milliband, I I imagine him at Berlin Central Station in 1943. He's wearing a full length black leather overcoat and he's asking suspicious people for their papers."
Are you aware of his ethnicity?
Milliman would do well to sit it out for s cycle or two and let new-Hague and new-IDS work it through until the party is electable again.
Young, "telegenic" clean-cut etc etc Miliband ought to be fanciable, but somehow isn't. Don't know why.
Mr Blobby is an unreal TV character who is portly and plastic with pink spots, and who speaks in meaningless repetitive phrases whilst creating chaos for all around him. He would surely be a shoein to replace the regular guy.
A regular guy is one who regularly lies and cheats, and regularly promotes his cronies whilst regularly taking free holidays from millionaire acquaintances
I suppose he would be fanciable, provided your minimum acceptable standard was four limbs and a pulse.
"Since Frank Field is so good at stating the bleedin' obvious, why doesn't he stand?"
More to the point, why doesn't he join the Tories?
"Young, "telegenic" clean-cut etc etc Miliband ought to be fanciable, but somehow isn't. Don't know why."
Because he's a nerd who threatens my ability to drive and fly where I want.
Is there any evidence of amusing scandals involving Miliband? I know he's not the most colourful of characters but then neither was Major.
I don't know if its a scandal but I think the press let him off lightly after he went to the US to buy a baby.
Young, telegenic, clean cut? Do they actually mean Miliband?
Heavens, I know they said certain practices ruin the eyesight, but I didn't realise there were quite so many ...................
Read some lefty bloggs if you want a very long hard laugh.
Their favourate candidate ant any of these chaps.
Not Mike or Dave or Tony or Ed or Gordon or Hillery or Tom or Dick or Harry.
Its
Wait for it
Its KEN LIVINGSTONE
THEY JUST DONT GET IT DO THEY?
If they had any sense, they would back Tony Blair for all its worth and take up some kind of religion.
Thank god socialists are stupid.
'Old on, 'old on. What's all this "going to the US to buy a baby"?
Doesn't he know how to make a proper home-grown one?
You just know millivolt has realy bad breath cos he is just to sanitized.
Mr Millibean.
It has a certain ring.
Another day, another 'Farming Today' programme entirely devoted to how useless millebean and his department are. Expect the agriculture wing of the beeboids to pick up some heavy duty silverware come gordo's glorious revolution !
There's nothing wrong with Defra that Defra's own solution - a cull - will not solve .. starting from the top
Miliband is an ineffective minister and would make an ineffective leader. He is nothing more than political eye-candy like the Blair Babes who stand up and PMQs and as Tone if he is aware how brightly the sune shines out of his arse. He is irrelevant. No doubt he is a wanker, but hardly in the Tim Collins league.
The disasters at Defra are not Miliband's doing. They were primarily caused by the Foreign Secretary.
MAFF was always a hard ministry to run but under good ministers, ie Walker, Jopling and best of all by far, Gummer, (laugh ye not) it punched way above its weight in Whitehall, Europe and the whole planet. Under crap ministers such as Miliband or Gillian Shepherd it always buckles.
HOWEVER, the man to watch is the man who has run a difficult brief moderately competently, namely John Hutton. He won't get it because Labour doesn't get it. But, he will stand, DEFINITELY.
Why ?
Because he uniquely has nothing to lose and everything to gain. He cannot hold his seat at the next election unless he raises his profile big style. Well, he could hold Barrow, but "and Furness", no chance.
" best of all by far, Gummer, (laugh ye not"
I don't laught at that.. I cry... The man who helped BSE..
Right... John Hutton is definitely NOT the man to watch.
Come to think of it, when I have watched him, the "OFF" switch has been very welcome...
Keep taking the medicine is my advice..:-))
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