Pancake Race Across Town

A question of priorities in the Fawkes household saw us Catholics flipping pancakes on Shrove Tuesday instead of down at Vinopolis with the Opus Dave crowd - despite receiving two invites from CCHQ. Baby Ms Fawkes (seemingly fully recovered) appreciated the effort - Guido arrived as everyone was leaving so can't report the Cameroonie mood there. Thought I saw Iain Dale strutting out into the night, so perhaps he will have a report.

Sans alcohol, Guido jumped back on his scooter as confused Tories sought taxis in deepest darkest Bermondsey sarf o' the river. Speeding through the night to Foyles where the Taxpayer's Alliance had kept a single glass of champagne aside. Bump into bloggers like Mr and Mrs Wat Tyler, Tim Montgomerie and the ever rockin' Andrew Ian Dodge amongst many others.

Consensus here was that if Cameron is looking for a fight with the right, he is not going to get one. "We should let him fight and win or lose the election on his own terms", "More than anything we want him to beat Brown", "I don't know what he is about, but he seems to be making progress" and "What is going on with your beard?" were the kind of comments people said to Guido.

UDATE : Dale does have the dope.

The Tory Dream Ticket

The probability of the English voting to be ruled over by two left-wing members of the Scottish Raj must be small. England voted in the most for the Tories at the last election, now the re-invigorated Tories are likely to face two tired old faces. Dave is one lucky politician.

Incidentally, it's worth watching online today's edition of Andrew Neil's Daily Politics - Jenny and he tore into all the LibDem candidates mercilessly. Watch them squirm.

Tufnell Park : Like Italy, it has Paparazzi

This is the scene, as snapped by a Guido co-conspirator this morning, outside Consigliere Mills' mortgage-money-back-to-backing casa della lavanderia.

The paparazzi are on resignation-watch. Ominously, when asked yesterday if the Prime Minister gave his full support to Tessa Jowell, the PMOS said "yes". Just like he did before Blunkett went. It seems to Guido that we are expected to believe that Mills was more honest with his accountant than his wife., that Mills was lying to the Italian authorities originally and is now telling the truth. It is all a bit iffy.

(Incidentally Guido welcomes pictures emailed by blog reading co-conspirators so if you catch something interesting on your camera-phone, let me know.)

Punters Flip-Flop, Guido Calls It For Ming

With the last chance to safely post voting slips coming tomorrow, Guido is calling the LibDem leadership election for Ming Campbell. Mike Smithson is calling it for Huhne (but keeping an all green screen). Young upstart tipster SpecialBets is also calling it for Ming.

My view is that a Ming backer squashed publication of the phantom YouGov poll (YG#1) when the poll showed Huhne narrowing the gap impressively. The second poll (YG#2), funded by a Huhne backer, had an element of push polling in it with leading questions which even my YouGov source admitted where a tad shady.

The only hard polling evidence is that Ming and Huhne are nearly within a margin of error on first preferences and that the majority of second preferences will go to Ming. The "Greenwash" smear on Huhne looked to me like a petulant Hughes backing op, Hughes also bitch-slapped Huhne early on and Hughes backers suspect Huhne of being more right-wing than he now professes. Hughes is the choice of sandal wearers and they will not switch to a multi-millionaire City refugee easily. Hughes' second preferences will go to Ming in great numbers. Phone polling by young LibDem activists (enjoy Ming's gift vouchers kids) also gives it to the old man. While Guido was writing this (a little before midnight) the betting market switched favourites. Guido has been in close contact with one of the biggest political punters throughout the last month (a player who can account for one-third of the daily market volume), he reckons that Huhne's market manipulator (who disappeared this weekend) will be looking at a middling five-figure loss.

Hail Ming!

Cameron's 6 Clauses

click to open pdf

"Guido Understands that..."

Nick Robinson tonight on the Ten O'Clock News will say that "the BBC understands that.." David Cameron intends to give a Statement of Principles tomorrow. This may be spun as the "almost Clause 4 moment". The Conservative party membership will be called upon to vote on it. This will face down right-wing critics with a "the membership backs change" definitive verdict. The old right headbangers will be buried.

Sorry to spoil the scoop Nick.

Service Will Be Resumed Shortly

Have been with baby Ms Fawkes down at Paediatric A&E - weekend from hell involving puking and shitting gastro-intestinal technicolour mess 24/7 non-stop. Best quote of the weekend from a London taxi driver, looking at Guido with puke dripping down his jacket "ahh, the joys of fatherhood".

Some stuff on Consigliere Mills has come to Guido's attention as well as some more muck-throwing amongst the LibDems... back soon.

Ming : I Must Do Better

Guido's man hiding behind the GMTV sofa emails to say that in the interview just recorded to go out Sunday, he was not brilliant. Asked if he would work harder on his performance at PMQs, Ming said

"Well, we have been working on it. Let me put it this way if I’d had to write the script for the opening day then I certainly wouldn’t have written it the way it turned out."

Meanwhile, his odds do seem to be closing on Huhne with only five days to go.

I Spy

Popularity Polls - Cameron Ahead

MORI reckons Cameron's approval rating — the difference between those satisfied and those dissatisfied with his performance — is at 15%

Grumpy Gordon is on 11% and Blair is on -29%. Guido has put money on Blair standing down in September (on the advice of Recess Monkey).

London Final LibDem Hustings

Guido attended his first LibDem hustings tonight. The highlight of an otherwise boring meeting was the trio of Southwark urban activists shouting for 5 minutes at Simon Hughes that he was "a racist" and ranting about Nick Stanton - LibDem leader of Southwark council. Now this was awkward, obviously they were going to have to go, but the virtually all-white, hand-wringing liberal audience didn't want to appear heavy handed.

So for a few minutes the situation was tense (although Nick Robinson was laughing with George Pascoe-Watson from The Sun in the front row at the dilemma). Eventually an African LibDem intervened so no white-on-black pictures would appear.

No surprises, Ming and Huhne were about equal on the clap-o-meter, maybe Ming had the edge with his better sense of humour. Hughes was all earnest and vicar-like, he rambled but the audience was not his, Huhne didn't inspire but he was competent.

Funniest question from the floor was from someone who looked like a Tory in a yellow tie asking "when would they withdraw from the EU - AS THE PEOPLE WANT?"

Guido was handed a leaflet by a Green beardie-weirdie type which was going to go straight in the bin, except it does have an interesting allegation about carbon-neutral Huhne. He apparently owns substantial shareholdings in two gold mining companies. Gold which has to be smelted, a process which is responsible for 13% of global carbon emmissions. To be honest, Huhne's conversion from BMW driving city tycoon to Green, electric-car-driving political visionary, does strike Guido as politically convenient.

click to enlarge

Spin Cycle : Political Intelligence (Again)

Spin merchants Political Intelligence are already under investigation for providing undisclosed support to the All-Party Parliamentary Group on Mobile Communications (APPGM). A Guido co-conspirator emails to suggest a closer look at the All Party Parliamentary Internet Group chaired by Derek Wyatt MP (who is also on the APPGM).

So Guido investigated the websites apmobile.org.uk and apig.org.uk. The websites are very informative about their activities apart from who provides support. The first was registered by Nicholas Lansman MD of Political Intelligence, the second was a bit more covert, but the address was a bit of a giveaway, it is the office of, you guessed it, Political Intelligence. Is Guido the only person disturbed that MPs are going on junkets under the banner of cross party groups that are organised by lobbyists who keep their industry clients secret and hide their involvement? Legislation regulating these industries makes and breaks their profits.

MPs will protest that it is all above board and within the rules (although in this instance Guido suspects that the disclosure rules have not been followed). Until the last General Election, the Blunkett-lookalike now ex-MP Brian White served on these groups and even enjoyed a free trip to Germany out of it in 2002.

When the wise voters of Milton Keynes booted him out within months he was employed as a consultant by Political Intelligence. Although of course there is absolutely no suggestion any rules have been broken, when it comes to answering 'what is in it for the MPs who serve on APPGs' (besides junkets) this provides an uncomfortable direction of thought.

Top O' The Morning Osborne

George Osborne must have read my piece last week about the merits of Free Ireland. Because this morning he is in Dublin. Guido said:

"..let me recommend the benefits of Free Ireland to you over-taxed and downtrodden subjects: lower taxes, higher per capita income, higher GDP growth, a fully functioning education system, no I.D. cards, no kow-towing to inbred-German-toffs, a friendlier people and a better lifestyle."

Boy George says:

What has caused this Irish miracle, and how can we in Britain emulate it? Three lessons stand out.

• First, Ireland’s education system is world-class....
  
• Secondly, the Irish understand that staying ahead in innovation requires world class research and development....No tax is paid on revenue from intellectual property where the underlying R&D work was carried out in Ireland...
• Thirdly, in a world where cheap, rapid communication means that investment decisions are made on a global basis, capital will go wherever investment is most attractive. Ireland’s business tax rates are only 12.5%, while Britain's are becoming among the highest in the developed world.
  

The new global economy poses real long-term challenges to Britain, but also real opportunities for us to prosper and succeed. In Ireland they understand this... They have freed their markets, developed the skills of their workforce, encouraged enterprise and innovation and created a dynamic economy. They have much to teach us, if only we are willing to learn.

If you want to come over for a weekend and go hunting, that's still legal in Ireland...

Hat-tip : Conservative Home

Berlusconi's Consigliere

David Mills lunched Don Berlusconi at the Garrick some years ago. Anyone who has had lunch at the Garrick will understand now why Berlusconi agrees with Chirac on English food. Isn't it fascinating that Tessa Jowell's husband advises foreign tycoons how to dodge taxes and gets $600,000 bunged into a hedge fund as a thank you. Now he is under investigation by the Italian police, and the bastards Inland Revenue. Nice that they can still laugh about it.

Captions in the comments please...

UPDATE: According to the Guardian Diary, Mills actually met Don Bernasconi, an under-boss in the Don Berlusconi mob, rather than the godfather himself.

Spin Cycle : Dial-An-MP

The Times took a look at the All-Party Group on Mobile Communications, which is a front for the clients of lobbyists Political Intelligence.

Neither the parliamentary register nor the group’s own website reveals the lobbyists’ ultimate clients — including internet service providers whose telephony services compete head to head with the mobile industry. This is an apparent breach of parliamentary rules which state: “Where a public relations agency provides the assistance, the ultimate client should be named.”

Sir Philip Mawer, the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards, is on the case. Derek Wyatt MP, the vice-chairman of the group, admits the lobbyists’ clients included the Wireless Internet Service Providers Association and the European Internet Services Providers Association, whose profits are obvioulsy subject to regulatory risk.

Luckily for the providers of internet telephony, the group always seems willing to have-a-go at mobile companies for overcharging consumers, building mobile phone masts and marketing mobile phones to kids. Derek Wyatt reckons Political Intelligence would be straight out the door if they tried to influence things. It makes you wonder what Political Intelligence's clients are paying them for if not pay-as-you-go policies from this group?

Enough With Google Ads

Obviously somebody in Victoria Street reads Guido and has a sense of humour. Key in Chris Huhne and look what you get:

Please no more Google Ads. Please.

UPDATE : Cameron's advert has gone, possibly something to do with an organised ker-ching click-fest by LibDems.

UPDATE : A co-conspirator tells Guido that Google Ads keywords per click for Huhne cost 2p, for Ming 3p and Hughes 6p. Something to do with the Torygraph.

Ming's Women

Ming's campaign has a video interview on his blog where he talks about the women in his life. His mum, his wife, his junior school teacher and.. err, that's it. Strange, no mention of any other woman.

email Aplus Wireless Networks, Consultancy, Hardware & Software

Will the "Flip-Flop Chameleon" Spin Work?

New Labour believes that they have to define the opponent in the public mind and frame the terms of the debate to destroy him. Hague, IDS and Howard got the treatment. With Cameron they have hesitated, apparently at Blair's behest and to the dismay of Brown. Now we are led to believe they have agreed an attack and they intend to define Cameron as an unreliable policy chameleon - a flip-flopper. The on message, loyalist Labour whip, Tom Watson MP, blogs this spin (with a very colourful graphic). Whomever wrote Prescott's recent speech to the Labour Party Centenary Conference summarised the line neatly:

He’s like a rainbow. The Yellow Cameron. The Red Cameron. The Green Cameron. The Blue Cameron. What we’ve got, is Cameron the Chameleon. He can change the colour of his skin at will but the political animal underneath is Conservative to the core.

As much as Tom Watson and the activist core loves this line of attack, they should be self aware enough to know that Labour performed a total policy flip-flop from the pre-1996 policies advocated by Messrs Blair and Brown to reach their 2006 policies. They flipped and are still flopping.

All Cameron has to do is say "yes, it's true, we have changed" and this line of attack is neutralised. That is after all what the voters wanted. Change. Calling Cameron a flip-flopper clearly highlights and confirms the change for him. Advertisers always like to keep the message simple - the New Tory message is "we have changed". The details are irrelevant to most voters. Daz does not advertise Persil's new formula, why is New Labour advertising New Tory policy changes?

The Kerry precedent is not directly comparable - Kerry flipped, flopped and flipped again and again. The man was a policy oscillator. If Cameron retreats on a future policy change Labour may have a valid charge. But he hasn't so far, and unless he does, this line of attack won't work.

Ming Sees Huhne's Google Bid and Raises Him

James F an eagle-eyed co-conspirator of Guido's, points out that the story about Huhne buying adverts on Google for search results for his rival's names, obviously upset the Mingers. Look what they have done:

Search for Chris Huhne and you find Ming above him! They will have had to pay more than the Huhney Monster for the privilege.

Ming bidding here...

UPDATE : Mingers seem determined to boost Google's profits. Guess what you get when you search for "David Cameron"?

Comical Candidate

"Although the race is close, the evidence is that I have a slight lead with the other two battling it out for second place."

"I look forward to working as Leader with the brightest, best and most creative people in British liberal politics to bring forward the policies fit for the new century."

Hat-tip : after an original idea from www.theliberati.net/quaequamblog

Return Flight

After less than a year in a re-education camp, Howard Flight has found his way back to Westminster. Fired by Michael Howard for thought-crimes, the former MP and City heavy-weight has taken on the chairmanship of the right-on, ultra-Cameroonie think-tank, the Globalisation Institute.

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Gordon's Propensity to Mince

Gordon Brown's ambiguous sexual image in his university days has long been speculated about, remember Sue Lawley on Desert Island Discs years ago: "People want to know whether you're gay or whether there is some flaw in your personality". It appears to Guido that despite fatherhood, the tendency is creeping back. When Gordon visited HMS Kent* last week he positively frolicked in his goggles, mincing rather than marching. Whatever has got into him? Is he just full of the joys of spring?
*Iain Dale owes Guido 10 pints for the picture on the left.

A-List Fast-track Passport for Euro-MPs

A usually reliable source whispers that some Tory MEPs have already had interviews for the A-list. Could this be a reward for the high profile ones that supported Dave and to prevent any rebelliousness on the EPP-ED split?

Guido is also told that all ex-MPs have been kicked off the candidates list. All of them.

UPDATE : By "all of them" apparently the source meant all of them, apart from the 2005 losers.

Lynne Featherstone MP : The Woman Behind Huhne

Lynne had a drink with Guido and Recess and told us the tale of the time she kissed the wrong Willy. She's bullish on all fronts and she wants to be shadow home secretary. Hear why she couldn't get Clegg to run and who does her hair. Whatever...

Click over to Guido & Recess Monkey to hear what she has to say on the latest pubcast.

Loser Brown Swerves Scottish Conference

Gordon will not be appearing at Labour's Scottish conference in Aviemore next weekend. If his constituency MP was a Brownite acolyte instead of a LibDem who overturned an 11,500 majority, do you really think he would miss it? Gordon would be basking in the glory, instead of swerving the blame.

Simon Hughes Lying Again

From his blog :

Liberal Democrat leadership candidate Simon Hughes MP told GMTV’s Sunday programme this morning that he was “increasingly confident of victory.”

Best he re-mortgages and backs himself down the bookies at 30/1 if he is so confident.

Google Huhne Geek Special

If you Google Chris Huhne you get the search results and a Google advert as pictured. Very professional. If you Google Simon Hughes, guess what? Its the same if you Google Ming Campbell.

Huhney Monsters winning online here...

Everyone is a Huhney Monster Now

Punters on Betfair have slashed Huhne's odds this morning making him the runaway favourite at 8/13. The Big Mo is with the Huhney Monsters.

Q. What's the connection between Simon Hughes and his Nokia phone?
A. Dem iz both Finnish, innit.

Hughes is being offered at 30/1 for those who like outside bets. Ming has tumbled to 2/1. Guido understands that Ming almost literally tumbled over at the Midlands hustings. He lost his footing on stage and very narrowly avoided going arse over tit. It would have been a defining "Kinnock moment".

Huhney Monsters Pubcast Released

Imagine you are in a pub in Westminster and overheard Jake Rigg and Richard Huzzey of Chris Huhne's campaign team chatting to Guido and the Monkey. Over-exciting? No need to imagine it, upload it! Point your browser over to www.GuidoandtheMonkey.com.

Warning - this one is for hardcore political anoraks. If you have boxed sets of the West Wing on DVD this is for you. They were a very cagey pair, the Huzzey monster even forbade us using his photograph. It drove us to drink...

Tories Most Responsive, Labour Least Responsive

Political über-Geek Tom Steinberg comes up with really useful tools for e-democracy. His WriteToThem.Com is a real boon to communicating with your MP. Of most interest to Guido is the annual Responsivity League Table. It shows that of the major parties Tory MPs are the quickest and most reliable respondents, followed by LibDems and Labour.

The top three MPs were all Tories; Paul Goodman, George Young and Robert Key take a bow (or more likely your efficient research assistants should give themselves a pat on the back). The bottom three MPs were all Labour, P45s should be on their way to the lazy or incompetent assistants to Jane Kennedy, John Heppell and Graham Stringer.

The people's tribune George Galloway is obviously too busy being a celebrity to actually help people. Only 7% of his correspondents got a reply within 3 weeks.

Am luvvin' league tables for Labour MPs, if it's good enough for headmasters and hospitals, it's good enough for them!

Liberal Classifieds

Number Plate For Sale

Personalised number plate, previously on City tycoon's black BMW, now unsuited to greenish politician's electo-petro Toyota Prius hybrid.
All offers: chris@chrishuhne.org.uk.

G Reg, model V12, 5.3 litre Jaguar XJ-S for Sale
One elderly owner, pride and joy, forced to sell due to expected change of circumstances. All reasonable offers considered.
Contact: jag@campbellcampaign.org

Zany Novelty Yellow Taxi Service

Goes round and round in circles but never gets anywhere. Always up for any kind of ride.

To book: simon@simonhughesforleader.com

Guido is now accepting genuine advertising: sales@order-order.com.

Sunday Morning Quickies

• Stalking Cow for Brown Leadership Contest?
• Mr Jowells' $600,000 gift from Berlusconi - an offer he should have refused?
• £10,000 Fabergé Easter Eggs for Tory Donors!
• One Year Until Browning Street.
• LibDem Constituency Chiefs survey 41% Ming, 39% Huhne, 17% Hughes!
• Bloggers' Democracy.
• Cover-Up Killer Cops to be Charged.
• Blair and Huhne Both Dated American Psycho Mary.
• All Labour Ministers Get Jags - So Much for Green Government.

Comment / rant on the above stories below.

Briefing Knives Out for Huhne

The Mingers briefed The Times comprehensively, so we can expect more of the same tomorrow in the Sunday press. Guido is being passed all manner of scurrilous and implausible tales in brown paper emails. Even Huhne's family it seems is not off-limits. The Times' article reports a few snide comments about Huhne's new found Green evangelism as compared to his past enjoyment of a high-powered BMW (with personalised number plate). Detractors point to his Euro-fetishism to emphasise his one-track interest in the dismal science - almost the only area in which he was active in the EU parliament..

Huhne must be ahead of Ming (forget Hughes, he is finished) why else is he under such bitter attack by rivals? Apart from the fact that unlike Clegg et al he had the chutzpah and balls to run, fortune favours the brave they fear...

(Gratuitous irrelevant pictorial comparison of Huhne and Mr Bean suggested by Mrs Fawkes.)

Somebody Wanted to Steady Huhne's Odds

Somebody wanted to make sure the betting prices didn't move after Crick's Huhne story finished on Newsnight. They offered to lay £5000 on Ming and backed £1000 on Huhne. For non-gamblers they were trying to collar the prices - keeping Ming's odds long and Huhne's odds short. The money evaporated once the market settled down and the price was effectively unchanged. Clearly somebody with reasonably deep pockets and the motivation did the manipulation.

When Huhne was asked "Are you a multi-millionaire?" he said he did not know. Eh? He is the Shadow chief secretary to the Treasury and an economist - for someone so good-with-numbers that should have been an easy question. No major damage done by Crick, he just made Huhne look a bit shifty. Today has however brought another interesting rumour to the surface...

Crick Does Huhne Tonight

"Michael Crick is in reception" may be the five words politicians most fear, but Camp Huhne are putting a brave face on it. Crick has ruined a few politicians in his time and Huhne is his next target. Guido called Huhne HQ (like a real journalist, not a blogger) and got an answerphone (like a house, not a political HQ). So Guido called the mobile of Huzzey the Huhney Monster and spinmeister for the man.

"Michael Crick is turning your man over on Newsnight tonight, what is your line?" "The narrative" he explained, is that it is just like when Cameron had to hold the line about drugs use, Huhne will show strength in adversity. "But isn't Crick going to say that he fiddled his Euro-parliament expenses?"

"It's an old story" he said. "I guess everybody in Brussels fiddles their expenses" Guido ventured. "Listen I have gotta go, let's do lunch"...

Watch Newsnight

It will be of special interest to LibDems tonight - apparently.

Labour Politburo's Powershifts

Kremlinology was fascinating, as the Red Army marched through Red Square on May Day you had to look up to the podium at the politburo to see who was standing where in order to guage their status in the power struggle that is inherent in an undemocratic party machine. The nearer to Brezhnev you stood, the higher your status.

Thus the shifts in New Labour's politburo can be sensed, young Miliband (8/1 second favourite on Betfair) has paid tribute to Brown, Reid has bent the knee, Hewitt is more conciliatory, Milburn is in Siberia, Byers is an unperson. The Blairites are re-aligning themselves for fear of getting the bullet.

Brown will take over the party and the country without a vote cast, just like in the old politburo.

Huhne Flip-Flops

Guido has made no secret of his support for Huhne (well apart from all that raising taxes nonsense), but it is a bit disappointing that he has changed his previously liberal position on drugs.

Before yesterday his published views were:

• Acid(LSD) users "are well-balanced highly intelligent people"
• Hash (Cannabis) "relieves symptoms of anxiety, promotes mild euphoria"
• Opium users' "sense perceptions of the normal world are converted into sense perceptions of the imagination. Colours, movements and shapes are serenely beautiful, as beautiful as a dream..."

Then when challenged on this by the BBC he said he did not "stand by" such views. Does he still stand by his proposed £21 billion of extra taxes now that the IFS has challenged him? That works out at a suicidal 5p rise in income tax!

UPDATE: Huhne voted for the smoking ban too.

Reid Kneels in Submission to Brown

Is it real? Blair's alleged plan for a smooth handover of power to Brown could be a ruse (on Brown, all of us, Cherie, who knows - this is Blair after all), but it seems real. Even John Reid seems to believe it, see the tortured language he used in this FT interview - Reid is clearly in some pain:

“If you ask me: ‘Who is the leading candidate [for the leadership]?’ I would be stupid not to say: ‘The leading candidate is Gordon.’ But while you have a lea