Punters Flip-Flop, Guido Calls It For Ming
With the last chance to safely post voting slips coming tomorrow, Guido is calling the LibDem leadership election for Ming Campbell. Mike Smithson is calling it for Huhne (but keeping an all green screen). Young upstart tipster SpecialBets is also calling it for Ming.
My view is that a Ming backer squashed publication of the phantom YouGov poll (YG#1) when the poll showed Huhne narrowing the gap impressively. The second poll (YG#2), funded by a Huhne backer, had an element of push polling in it with leading questions which even my YouGov source admitted where a tad shady.
The only hard polling evidence is that Ming and Huhne are nearly within a margin of error on first preferences and that the majority of second preferences will go to Ming. The "Greenwash" smear on Huhne looked to me like a petulant Hughes backing op, Hughes also bitch-slapped Huhne early on and Hughes backers suspect Huhne of being more right-wing than he now professes. Hughes is the choice of sandal wearers and they will not switch to a multi-millionaire City refugee easily. Hughes' second preferences will go to Ming in great numbers. Phone polling by young LibDem activists (enjoy Ming's gift vouchers kids) also gives it to the old man. While Guido was writing this (a little before midnight) the betting market switched favourites. Guido has been in close contact with one of the biggest political punters throughout the last month (a player who can account for one-third of the daily market volume), he reckons that Huhne's market manipulator (who disappeared this weekend) will be looking at a middling five-figure loss.
Hail Ming!
11 comments:
It's great if you are correct. Another Scottish leader for the Lib Dems will make things all the more difficult for Gordon Brown, especially as Ming has called for a constitutional concention to investigate the West Lothian Question.
The Tories, with Cameron, their English Scot, will have a field day.
Hope you are right Guido, I've laid off my bet on Huhne - although still netting a tasty profit if the Huhnester snatches it.
"With the last chance to safely post voting slips coming tomorrow" - the deadline for receipt of ballots is midday tomorrow. If they are posted tomorrow they won't be counted, unless they're delivered by hand to Electoral Reform Services.
Members who haven't yet voted need to post their ballot today, and put a first class stamp on it.
Rob F - so the last chance is Cowley street hand delivery by 12pm tomorrow?
How does the count/result work?
Will they actually announce 3rd place first then have a gap then announce the winner or just announce the winner?
D'oh. Sorry. I should read more carefully - I see though the timestamp is 12:27am, your post says it was written a little before midnight. Apols.
Time stamps mean little around here. Some of Guido's most prescient announcements have come from the distant future (where, of course, they're a lot easier to get right).
Hope you're wrong but reckon you've called it right. It's been a dull uninspiring contest so it makes sense that it should be won by the most dull, uninpsiring candidate.
Rob F,
Post was started yesterday and finished today...
Islingtonian, if you see a post time-stamped tomorrow late at night you have broken the embargo!
Or my time-travel-lag has tired me out, which is a quantum effect of being a 400-year-old blogging ghost.
Guido, is it your account with the 5.8k position on Campbell?
Hail Ming indeed..
Special Bets: No, not Cowley St - Electoral Reform Services in North London.
The result will be declared at 3pm. Looking at just the sheer number of people who will be permitted in to observe the count, I imagine that if the result is clear it will leak much earlier - midday time.
A ten grand swing on the outcome - have you declared your interest?
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