Guardianistas Frozen Cash

The Guardian Diary mocked the Daily Express for recommending investing in Icesave last week on the very same day that the firm collapsed.

Those in ice-houses should be careful, for only a fortnight earlier where was the so smug and told-you-so financial pages of the Guardian telling readers to put their hard earned savings?

Harvey Jones picked ten of the best places to put your cash, guess which was his number one destination?

Do you need a clue? You're getting colder....

Is Brillo Hitting the Bottle?

Guido is a close observer of BBC2's the Daily Politics and The Week, both fronted by Andrew Neil. Recently it has been noticeable that Brillo's hair seems to have undergone a renaissance. Could be a trick of the light, Mrs Fawkes agrees that is more likely a dark bottle of dye that has done the trick.

Judge for yourself from these photos. Like a before and after advert?

Totty Watch Italia : Italian Minister for Equality Sues Over "Blowjob for Silvio" Smear

Italian prime minister Berlusconi's Equal Opportunities Minister Mara Carfagna (pictured) – a former topless model – is suing over claims that the 32-year-old got her job as minister by performing oral sex on Mr Berlusconi.

Carfagna's relationship with Silvio Berlusconi is ununusual - he said in 2007: "If I was not already married I would have married her immediately." Carfagna says the rumour-mongering about her and Silvio proved she was the victim of a sexist campaign.

Guido was unable to reach Harriet Harman's office for comment.

Daily Politics' Psychologist : "Brown Insecure", "Self Harming"

So Guido is not the only one who thinks Brown is the Prime Mentalist. The meme is mainstream now.

On the BBC's Daily Politics show this morning a mental health professional went public on national television.

Friday Caption Contest (Bust Banks, Gordon Giggles Edition)

Gordon's "Falklands Moment"

Best comment of the day from Talwin:

"I notice over the past day or two some commentators wondering if by chance the current economic disasters might not turn out to be Brown's Falklands moment.

D'you know I think they're right. With Brown as Galtieri."

He is telling the people of Swindon that he has brought down oil prices "We’ve had some success in getting it down." Nothing to do with global recession reducing demand.

He has invoked Anti-Terror laws against Icelandic Fundamentalists banks rather than normal bankruptcy procedures. He threatened to freeze the assets of other Icelandic owned companies, without any legal basis. Is he going to arrest Father Christmas at Hamley's if Iceland doesn't pay local councils for their losses?

Last night in a BBC interview, during which he smiled randomly like an over-medicated hypermaniac, he told Nick Robinson that "everything was being done" and that "I have to restore confidence in the banking system". Bonkers - bank stocks collapsed on the open this morning. "I" is the Prime Mentalist...

Judgement Day : Lehman's CDS Auction Today

If you think it is bad now, imagine what it will be like if the reckoning for Lehman's Credit Default Swaps goes bad today. Many market players think this is the reason banks are hoarding cash, because no one really knows if these derivatives will settle without serious mishap.

Lehman's bonds are trading at 13c on the dollar - and there is $128 billion in bonds outstanding. The banking system is looking at booking a $100 billion hit today. There are an estimated 350 counterparties and nearly 2000 related securities.

Guido thinks that Greenspan could have been right on this, the risk has been distributed, it will hurt, hopefully only just wounds rather than causing major fatalities. If it goes smoothly we could be looking at a monster relief rally... but it is still a bear market...

+++ NO BUYERS FOR BANK STOCKS +++

HBOS DOWN 25% BARCLAYS DOWN 15%
RBS NO QUOTE LLOYDS TSB DOWN 13%

+++ FTSE CRASHES 10% ON OPEN +++ +++ 4000 LEVEL SMASHED +++

Dow Breaks 9000, General Motors Downgraded

Back in 1955, Charlie Wilson, then chairman of General Motors famously said “What is good for General Motors is good for America”.

53 years later and the stock is at a 58 year low after GM was downgraded. Mattel, the toy car maker, now has twice the capitalisation of General Motors. Not good for America... or the UK, FTSE 4000 could be smashed tomorrow...

Peston Leaker Hunt

Ben Brogan has it seems just got off the phone with McPoison (old habits die hard) and is relaying the spin that George Osborne is the source of the Peston leak. A desperate Downing street line, what would be the motive? Cui bono?

Brown benefits as you can tell from the huge smile on his face. Cracking jokes about bankrupt banks, he hasn't been this happy since the day he seized the premiership. He is boasting to Nick Robinson today that the plan is "leading the world" - he told Robbo "I now have to restore confidence in the banks." Gordon is ecstatic posing as the financial saviour of British banking. The banks didn't want to do a deal on the terms Gordon wants them to - leaking collapsed their shares and forced their hand.

Any leak hunt should perhaps start by asking questions of McBride and Geoffrey Spence, the City banker turned Treasury insider on the Council of Economic Advisers...

Gordon's Big Government

• Gordon has 121 ministers, whips or law officers. Churchill required only 74 to defeat the Nazis.
• 154 Labour MPs (44% of the PLP) have an official job of some description.
• 33 people have the right to attend cabinet.

Hat-tip : Andrew Sparrow

Flash Mob Rumour

Don't know much about this, but keep getting tipped off from different directions. Doesn't sound like the usual rent-a-crowd of Trots. A disorganised flash mob, no speeches, just show up on the steps of the Bank of England...

UPDATE 17.50 : From the comments, going around the City:

To all staff in the London Office

We have been informed by the City of London Police that a protest against financial institutions in the City will be taking place from about 3.00 pm till 6.00pm tomorrow. The protest by the ‘Socialist Workers Party’ will originate in the area of Bank Junction and the Royal Exchange. Exact numbers of demonstrators are not known but the Police will be in attendance as normal.

We will be increasing building security arrangements as a precaution. Your safety is our priority and the advice we have received is for staff to use caution and remain vigilant when travelling through the City.

Thank you for your co-operation.

So it will be a load of Trots and possibly Guido with a "No Bolshevism for Bankers" placard. Wonder if Heffer fancies a spot of lunch at Coq d'Argent and joining the demo afterwards?

Where Have All the Capitalists Gone?

Cameron's Conservatives seem to be fair weather friends of capitalism, even the FT's in-house free market philosopher, Martin Wolf, has abandoned free enterprise for banker bolshevism. Besides Guido only Heffer in the papers remains a strident capitalist tool, managing to quote Ayn Rand approvingly this morning.

Ruth Lea, once a Thatcherite free market scourge of wet Conservatism, seems to have taken a surprising turn for the worse in the last few months:

Just to cheer up put-upon capitalists, here is the "Greed is Good" speech from Wall Street:

Greed is still good with Guido...

Terror Laws Used Against Icelandic Bank

The FT reports that a freezing order was issued under the 2001 Anti-Terrorism, Crime and Security Act against Landsbanki’s estimated £4bn UK financial assets. Guido doubts that it was the intention of parliament when it voted on this draconian Act that it should be used in this way.

Is Guido the only one uncomfortable with this abuse of the law? Aged hecklers first, now foreign bankers. We are all terrorists...

Islamic Piety

Hugh Muir in the Guardian diary reports* that the controversial Young Muslim Advisory Group was launched at the Foreign Office on Tuesday.

Jacqui Smith, David Miliband and Hazel Blears were there. The right notes were struck, but when things become tense and the nuances begin to matter, it will be essential to ensure that the right people are in charge of all the preparations. Melton Mowbray may be lovely but it is known the world over for its pork pies; so whoever decided to ferry the young Muslims there for the group's first away day took a bit of a risk, culturally speaking.

*N.B. Attribution is easy, try it sometime Hugh.

Exclusive : Michael Howard Complains to FSA Over Pesto-Wire

City outrage over Peston's reporting has been voiced by Michael Howard. He has written to the FSA to ask for an investigation into the leaking of intensely market sensitive information to Pesto-Wire. Good.

click to enlarge

UPDATE : During this afternoon's debate Howard challenged Darling over the Government's conduct. Darling noticeably did not specifically deny that the Government leaked details of the bail-out plan. Howard has also tabled a PQ asking if the Chancellor of the Exchequer "will initiate an official inquiry into the leaking of market sensitive information to the Economic Editor of the BBC relating to the recapitalisation of Britain's high street banks". Fingers are pointing towards Catherine Macleod, Darling's very own Spin Mistress...

Put them on the National Economic Council

BBC reports :

Four years ago, fearful of a property crash, David and Maureen Somers sold their house and bought gold... Mr Somers and his wife Maureen claim it would be "vulgar" to say how much they invested in gold. However, he does say they sold their three-bedroom, detached house in Poole for a significant profit, and the couple have since almost doubled their money again in gold.

"Over thousands of years gold has never reached zero. The price is a risk, but at the end of the day I will still have the same amount of gold," he says.

"There are people who probably hold bank shares that would have been seen as conservative investments and you could question what they are going to be left with."

Gold-bugs, not so crazy now, eh?

"Vertu Blessaður" Singer & Friedlander R.I.P. Founded 1907, City of London - Bust 2008

So Guido says goodbye (in Icelandic) to Singer & Friedlander :

From: Armann Thorvaldsson
Sent: 08 October 2008 13:53
To: DL All Staff

Subject: Important Message to All


Dear Colleagues

I wrote to you yesterday about our intensive efforts to work through the current crisis and promised to give you more news today. We have worked with a number of investment banks, our parent in Iceland and the FSA over the last two weeks to explore a large number of possible options to ensure the future of KSF. On several occasions, we have come close to finding solutions but the chaos in financial markets has consistently undermined our efforts. We now face the prospect of insufficient liquidity, rapid deposit outflows and no prospects for correcting the situation in the short term.

I have therefore convened a meeting of our Board in order to consider the next step. That meeting has concluded we have no choice but to place Kaupthing Singer & Friedlander into administration with immediate effect. We will give you all more information on the implications of this decision in the course of today and ask for your patience in order to make the best of a very unhappy situation for all of us. Can I ask you to continue work in as normal a fashion as possible, cooperating with the Administrators in their work with us. This decision relates only to KSF Ltd and not its subsidiaries. They will continue to trade unless advised otherwised. We will give a more complete information update later in the day, certainly before 4pm.

You have all worked with incredible effort to make KSF a success and we were well on our way to achieving it before the credit crisis had such a sudden and disastrous effect. Now I can only ask for your help in making the end of the process as orderly and professional as possible.

I am personally gutted that it has come to this, especially in light of the fact that our problems have arisen out of association rather than any fundamental problems with the business. On the contrary I belief that we have built a great business over the last couple of years and during this time I have worked with many of the most talented and professional people I have ever met. I am very sorry.

Sincerely,

Kind regards

Armann Thorvaldsson
CEO
Kaupthing Singer & Friedlander Group Plc
One Hanover Street

Won't be the last...

Osborne : "Fox is a S**t"

Didn't take Mandy long to get revenge on Osborne for grassing him up about their cosy Corfu taverna gossip. Maguire reports this morning the rumour that Osborne "turned the air blue and ridiculed defence spokesman Liam Fox as a "s**t" in an incredible four-letter tirade." Is this news?

+++ Mr Bean in Charge of Monetary Stability +++

HM Treasury Press Release

Her Majesty The Queen has been pleased to approve, under the Bank of England Act 1998, the appointment of Charles Bean as a Deputy Governor of the Bank of England for Monetary Stability, for a period of five years.

This explains a lot.

Source : H o C Treasury Select Committee

Gordon's £300 Billion Guarantee : £50 Billion Tier 1 Capital + £200 Billion Inter-Bank Guarantee + £50 Billion Northern Rock

Pretty soon we are going to be talking real money.

Guido has lost track of the repeated Bank of England interventions to try and flood liquidity into the money markets. Those alone could easily be as much as £200 billion or more.

The government bail out, never mind the Bank interventions, is secured against the hard work of Britain's 28 million taxpayers. The government is risking more than £10,000 for each taxpayer.

UPDATE : The bail-out we are told was finalised at 5 a.m. this morning, the tri-partite authorities meeting in Downing Street was at 5 p.m. last night. Good to know that a £300 billion plan to "guarantee" the economy can be cobbled together in less time than it takes to do a school homework project. Fills Guido full of confidence.

Labour to Implement 1983 Manifesto Pledges

It is a quarter century since Labour's Michael Foot signed manifesto was rejected by the British people. An unelected Prime Minister is now going to impose some of those plans on the British economy. The socialist dreams so roundly rejected in 1983 sound eerily familiar:

... a National Investment Bank to put new resources from private institutions and from the government.... Exercise, through the Bank of England, much closer direct control over bank lending. Agreed development plans will be concluded with the banks and other financial institutions. Create a public bank... set up a Securities Commission to regulate the institutions and markets of the City... Set up a tripartite investment monitoring agency to advise trustees and encourage improvements in investment practices and strategies... We expect the major clearing banks to co operate with us fully on these reforms, in the national interest. However, should they fail to do so, we shall stand ready to take one or more of them into public ownership. This will not in any way affect the integrity of customers' deposits.

The National Economic Council of the people's plutocrats is straight out of that unreconstructed dirigiste mindset. This isn't going to work.

The big lie that we will hear this morning is that taxpayer's money will be "invested" and the government may even make a profit - like the Swedes did in the nineties. Except the Swedes didn't make a profit, Swedish taxpayers lost billions. One bank out of over 114 Swedish banks refused the deal. SEB, Sweden's largest bank controlled by the Wallenberg family, arranged a private sector recapitalisation and returned to profitability within a year. So could the UK banks. British taxpayers are going to get screwed like they have never been screwed before.

Guido's Plan to Stabilise UK Markets

Gordon, Alastair, Mervyn and FSA boss Lord Adair are meeting at 5pm today to figure out their plan to stabilise markets. The FT is pointing the finger at Pesto for bank shares collapsing today. The banks concerned have denied his story, it appears his report was the result of a briefing about possible plans. There is real anger in the City because of his reporting. Peston has single-handedly inflamed the situation.

Pesto-Wire Causes More Misery

The FT's Alphaville blog calls him "Pesto-Wire" and mocks him for replacing the official Regulatory News Service. He is a bit of a market menace because his reports are perceived as based on sources in 10 & 11 Downing Street. So he is a market mover. Guido has thousands of readers in the City and this email is typical of the feeling towards him in the Square Mile:

Dear Guido,

The Peston wrote a blog note this morning in which he suggested that the banks had "asked" the chancellor for capital injections. He did so without being able to be clear on the names, terms or size of such a transaction.

Since it is known that he speaks with the authority of Downing Street, UK banks crashed approximately 20 - 30% on the news taking a (tentatively recovering) market with them. The volatility, of course, is much worse than normal because there are no longer any short sales of banking stocks to absorb the risk.

Had the banking stocks been allowed to follow the market and trade naturally, they might well have been able to continue to go to the market for new capital (Lloyds did this on the day of the HBOS announcement with great success). Of course, this government's need to be constantly seen to be doing something has triumphed and Peston's attempt to make the chancellor look important has resulted in the largest one hour crash in banking stocks in living memory on the London market.

We have a regulatory announcement system PRECISELY to stop this kind of activity If material talks take place, a company must announce with absolute clarity what is contemplated so that shareholders are able to judge simultaneously and equally the likely impact on the stock.

Once again, the political imperative to make Gordon Brown look involved and competent has put in jeopardy the already fragile UK banking system and the markets upon which it relies.

Had a hedge fund published this kind of speculation while trading in the stocks, they would now find themselves the subject of an FSA investigation.

Quite. See also Who Told Peston?

UPDATE : RBS in a terse statement say "contrary to press speculation, RBS did not make a request to the Government for capital." Pesto on the World at One basically shrugged his shoulders when Martha said to him "presumably they mean you". Carnage in the markets, the banking system further destabilised, billions change hands and all Pesto can say is "ooops".

The People's Chauffeur Driven Limo in the Guardian Car Park

This picture and email arrived in Guido's inbox this morning:

Dear Guido,

I take a short-cut around the back of the Guardian's building on the way to work and occasionally have noticed this chauffeur driven Bentley parked in the car park. The number plate of the £150,000 car so beloved of gangsta rappers and footballers is VE56 PMY. My question is, to who does this belong?

Lord P MYners of the Sith, the soon to be former chairman of Guardian Media Group, the People's Commissar in the City and plutocratic shorter of Bradford & Bingley?

Could it be Polly Toynbee's ride to the airport?

Is it in fact Rusbridger's annual bonus on wheels?

Could any of your co-conspirators help out?

UPDATE : It is apparently a chauffeur driven Chrysler gas-guzzler not a Bentley and it does indeed belong to Paul Myners. Guido is obviously no Jeremy Clarkson.

+++ RBS Down 39% +++

No short-sellers were involved this morning. Yet Gordon and Darling said they were banning short selling to protect financial institutions (Cable, who should know better, cheered this on). Guido and most objective market observers said it was irrelevant. Today's market action proves the point. QED

What a Mass Bank Bail-Out Does to the Currency

This is what could happen to the pound if the Treasury decides to print cash to bail out collapsing banks. The Icelandic Króna has lost 40% in value in three months. The Icelandic Króna is not the Great British Pound, the UK economy is far larger and hopefully stronger. Little Iceland could go bust and end up begging the IMF, a humiliation suffered by Britain under the last Labour government. Nothing, however, is impossible.

The FT reports some good news; $500 billion in derivatives contracts related to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were settled yesterday. Friday, 17 October, sees $400 billion of Lehman Credit Default Swaps (CDS) come due for settlement. If this goes through without mishap, market liquidity could improve as fears of systemic failure recede and the biggest ever stress test for derivatives contracts passes.

If...

PLP Changes Bets

The collapse of the Miliband putsch and reports from the PLP that there is to be an "end to hostilities" has made Guido shift his bets. Guido is now backing a May 2010 general election date with the Labour Party led by Gordon Brown. (Incidentally, you can get 12 /1 on Brown leading his party and Cameron not, an outside bet if you feel lucky.)

It seems to Guido that not even a disaster in Glenrothes will divert the Labour Party from its lemming instinct.

Newsnight Mess Up the Market Report Yet Again

Kirsty correctly informed us that the pound had "tumbled almost one and three quarter cents" yet the graphic had it up +1.74 cents. Viewers have to guess the truth, one wonders does anyone at Newsnight actually care?

Guido watched Randall Live on Sky earlier this evening interviewing Martin Sorrell. An adult conversation about business and the markets with some interesting insights. Sorrell explained what he was up to re-domiciling WPP in Ireland. It wasn't at all the hectoring quasi-Marxist business bashing that so often characterises the BBC's reporting - which might be fine for Guardian readers but is pretty tiresome for people interested in business news. Randall is recommended.

Clegg : Mandy Was Poisonous to Me Too

Nick Clegg is recounting to acolytes that back in 2004/5 when he was still an MEP he had dinner with Mandelson in Brussels. Over the courses Mandy spent most of the evening being vitriolic about Brown.

No doubt this will be attributed to LibDem propaganda and dirty tricks. Everyone else is clearly lying except Mandy...

Just as Well They Banned Short Selling, Eh?

As the markets tank the question is how low can we go? There is quite simply no immediate floor for the FTSE 100, after 4500 the next level is the January 2003 level of 3600, a drop of some 20%. Think that is impossible? Stocks are down more than 20% since the beginning of the year.

So it isn't hard to see that kind of market capitulation happening. In the tech bust of 1999-2000 many stocks fell 90%. Some bank stocks have already dropped 90%. There is nothing government can do to alter the reality and this has to play out. Tokyo had near zero interest rates for the best part of a decade (sorry Vince that was no panacea). The liquidity problem is/was a precursor to the solvency problem. Governments can flood markets with liquidity but that can't fix insolvency. This is going to be painful.

Politicians who claim to have solutions to the credit crunch are infantalising the electorate. The best they can do is ameliorate the problems. They can't alter the underlying reality. Over-priced assets are crashing and bringing down the banks - not all - some like HSBC are relatively unscathed. There are pluses as well, if you are in your twenties you will have a better chance of getting on the property ladder now...

Rich & Mark's Monday Morning View

Peter Mandelson 'Dripped Pure Poison' about Gordon Brown to George Osborne

Meet the New Deputy Leader of the Commons

Another serious person for serious times. Chris Bryant is the deputy leader of the house. His main qualification for this is that he is a Brown loyalist, one of the curry house plotters who can be relied on to be alert to and determined to frustrate the ambitions of Miliband.

Presumably that is the reason for the installation of the strange Sion Simon as a minister for the crown. Tom Watson also remains close to the centre of power in the Cabinet Office where he can continue to brief against internal enemies of the the Prime Mentalist. Watson will have been pleased with himself having seen off Stephen Carter. Nick Brown as chief whip is the ultimate factional enforcer.

This government intake are the second-raters who would never have prospered during New Labour's prime. They are distinguished only in the way that Kamikaze pilots were distinguished in their loyalty to the emperor. It is going to be a heck of a lot of fun, and a dirty fight to the death.